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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential
Posted on 8/28/18 at 9:49 pm to rds dc
Posted on 8/28/18 at 9:49 pm to rds dc
The potential system that might impact the Gulf later on isn't looking like much tonight and is heavily sheared.
There is an upper level trough or TUTT sagging across the area and that is helping to really crank shear over this wave.
The models vary in how they handle the break down of the TUTT over the next few days with the GFS keeping shear high and the Euro giving the system a bit of a break. By Sunday morning the GFS is still a sheared out mess with little convection.
The Euro breaks down the TUTT allowing an upper level low to cut off across the Gulf while also building an upper level ridge in the vicinity of the wave, this allows convection to build. Without getting too far down in the weeds, this is a significant difference and we see pretty decent convection on the Euro.
That increased convection on the Euro allows for the low level vorticity (spin) to start to consolidate into a TD or TS. If the 00z Euro holds steady, then we should see the NHC highlight this wave for development with an invest tag not far behind.
There is an upper level trough or TUTT sagging across the area and that is helping to really crank shear over this wave.
The models vary in how they handle the break down of the TUTT over the next few days with the GFS keeping shear high and the Euro giving the system a bit of a break. By Sunday morning the GFS is still a sheared out mess with little convection.
The Euro breaks down the TUTT allowing an upper level low to cut off across the Gulf while also building an upper level ridge in the vicinity of the wave, this allows convection to build. Without getting too far down in the weeds, this is a significant difference and we see pretty decent convection on the Euro.
That increased convection on the Euro allows for the low level vorticity (spin) to start to consolidate into a TD or TS. If the 00z Euro holds steady, then we should see the NHC highlight this wave for development with an invest tag not far behind.
5
Posted on 8/28/18 at 9:52 pm to rds dc
This Atlantic Hurricane Season has been a complete dud. Thank God! 
Posted on 8/28/18 at 9:54 pm to rds dc
quote:
Without getting too far down in the weeds, this is a significant difference and we see pretty decent convection on the Euro.
Too late for that.
Posted on 8/28/18 at 9:59 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
Which model was it that locked in on the eventual Harvey solution a week in advance?
I think the Euro was the one that the Space City Weather guy used to warn everyone of Harvey.
Interesting read here... Meet the Unlikely Hero Who Predicted Harvey's Floods WIRED
Posted on 8/28/18 at 10:01 pm to Tchefuncte Tiger
quote:
This Atlantic Hurricane Season has been a complete dud.
The next named system will be the "F" storm and ACE is just about at avg for this point in the season. However, on avg, the majority of the ACE is accumulated over the next 6 weeks.
Posted on 8/28/18 at 10:14 pm to rds dc
Seems like every year, we get a new acronym to digest.
2018 brings "TUTT".
2018 brings "TUTT".
Posted on 8/28/18 at 10:17 pm to rds dc
quote:quote:
This Atlantic Hurricane Season has been a complete dud.
The next named system will be the "F" storm and ACE is just about at avg for this point in the season. However, on avg, the majority of the ACE is accumulated over the next 6 weeks.
the thing that gives the perception of a "dud" season even though we're already 5 storms in is that 3 (I believe) were "subtropical" storms... which I believe most write off until it gets its tropical characteristics b/c it's considered a weaker storm
plus they were all fish & ship storms
Posted on 8/28/18 at 10:19 pm to rds dc
quote:
The models vary in how they handle the break down of the TUTT over the next few days with the GFS keeping shear high and the Euro giving the system a bit of a break. By Sunday morning the GFS is still a sheared out mess with little convection.
so once again we're cheering for the Americans over the Europeans
Posted on 8/28/18 at 10:19 pm to East Coast Band
quote:
Seems like every year, we get a new acronym to digest.
2018 brings "TUTT".
TUTT has been around for years, it probably moved into the wx hipster vernacular during the past 5 seasons? In fact, I haven't really seen any new "slang" so far this season.
Posted on 8/28/18 at 10:20 pm to rt3
quote:
so once again we're cheering for the Americans over the Europeans
Always
Posted on 8/28/18 at 10:23 pm to rds dc
Hey rds...
Our local meteorologist told me not to listen to social media. He says this every hurricane season.
Here’s a pic I found of him, if you’re interested. Every time there’s a small chance of a significant event....regardless of season....
Our local meteorologist told me not to listen to social media. He says this every hurricane season.
Here’s a pic I found of him, if you’re interested. Every time there’s a small chance of a significant event....regardless of season....
Posted on 8/28/18 at 10:24 pm to Prominentwon
quote:
Our local meteorologist told me not to listen to social media.
The OT isn't social media, tell him #Sonic
Posted on 8/28/18 at 10:27 pm to Prominentwon
quote:
Our local meteorologist told me not to listen to social media. He says this every hurricane season.
He's not wrong, in a sense. TV is dying due to social media, and they know it. Most Mets are transitioning to social media, but TV is still the #1 way most get their weather information. It's a battle because social media isn't as controlled, and in the world of unfiltered instant information, And our need for drama and hype, it's easy for someone to post a dreadful model run and that will overshadow any reasonable discussion. David Bernard put out a great post on his Facebook page about this tropical situation tonight, and noted he did so to get out ahead of any hype.
Posted on 8/28/18 at 10:27 pm to rds dc
He tries so hard to calm the gullible masses.
Here’s a recent post. He felt the need to have to post this....
Posted on 8/28/18 at 10:40 pm to rds dc
quote:
This Atlantic Hurricane Season has been a complete dud. Thank God!
I equate this to commenting on a pitcher's perfect game in the 7th inning
Posted on 8/28/18 at 10:42 pm to YogaPants
quote:
This Atlantic Hurricane Season has been a complete dud. Thank God!
I equate this to commenting on a pitcher's perfect game in the 7th inning
Yeah, no shite. I am headed to Wal-Mart right now to get a year's worth of bottled water...Posted on 8/29/18 at 7:38 am to LSUGrad9295
Any morning model updates?
Posted on 8/29/18 at 8:05 am to Ex-Popcorn
Gfs curves a strong storm into the Atlantic as a fish.
Euro has a very weak low dragging across the panhandle and into mobile.
Euro has a very weak low dragging across the panhandle and into mobile.
This post was edited on 8/29/18 at 8:06 am
Posted on 8/29/18 at 8:08 am to rds dc
The only purpose for my generator is to sit in my shop and collect shite that sits on top of it. I haven't started it in 2 years. Am I fricked?
This post was edited on 8/29/18 at 8:09 am
Posted on 8/29/18 at 8:09 am to rds dc
So what’s going to steer this thing if something does form? Is it stronger it goes more east and weaker goes more west?
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