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re: Hospitalizations are down 1,388 today, That's a 23% drop nationally in the past 3 weeks.

Posted on 8/15/20 at 9:23 am to
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
79918 posts
Posted on 8/15/20 at 9:23 am to
quote:

How do you explain NYC 99.8% death drop?
They are running against herd status at 20-30%.
A lot of people obviously have natural immunity.




They stopped exposing the highest risk population? Just like Louisiana, Sweden, and everyone else.

NYC is halfway vacant and no where close to open or back to normal. They are socially distancing, only allowing outdoor dining, shutting down bars and restaurants, masking...
This post was edited on 8/15/20 at 9:28 am
Posted by Uncle Stu
#AlbinoLivesMatter
Member since Aug 2004
33878 posts
Posted on 8/15/20 at 9:37 am to
quote:

The epidemic is over, and probably won’t return.

It will just take a month to burn out.

This is exactly where the latest actual science is taking us

Covid19 Crusher
quote:

This is a strong indication that the COVID-19 virus is not seasonal.

quote:

The extraordinary absence of COVID deaths' resurgence in New York State.

quote:

Here are the US states that look in pandemic burnout to me:
AL, AZ, CT, FL, LA, MS, MT, NC, NJ, NM, NV, NY, RI, SC, TN, TX, UT

Not far behind or possibly already there:
DE, GA, ID, IL, IA, MD, MI, NE, OK, PA, WA

Overall, the USA looks in good shape now.

quote:

High cumulative number of cases, tests and new cases trending down, Alabama and Mississippi have likely entered the pandemic burnout phase as well.

quote:

Happy to add Louisiana and South Carolina to the Pandemic Burnout Attainment Members' Club.



Over and over again, check out the graphs that he posts. This virus is predictable, it sweeps through a population, and it really does damage to a particular subset of that population. Herd immunity is reached in about 8 weeks on average. Around 15% - 20% of a population show mild to severe symptoms, around 45% of the population show virtually no symptoms.

Lockdowns are doing more harm than good
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
79918 posts
Posted on 8/15/20 at 9:51 am to
I definitely think those statements are true. Granted similar to Louisiana you have to see if each state has had even spread or else they are still susceptible to a second wave like La had.

The infection has to be distributed evenly through the herd.

It also means that as conditions change, less precautions and more interaction, the level of herd immunity needed will also change.
This post was edited on 8/15/20 at 9:58 am
Posted by RockChalkTiger
A Little Bit South of Saskatoon
Member since May 2009
11338 posts
Posted on 8/15/20 at 10:18 am to
See what happens when you wear the mask? Gov. Me Maw issued a mandate in Alabama and cases are dropping here. Just wear the damn mask!
Posted by WaWaWeeWa
Member since Oct 2015
15714 posts
Posted on 8/15/20 at 10:30 am to
quote:

NYC is halfway vacant and no where close to open or back to normal. They are socially distancing, only allowing outdoor dining, shutting down bars and restaurants, masking...


I don’t think you understand how dense their population is. Thousands of people living in high rises together. They need to use the elevator, need to go to the store, etc. Not to mention the protests.

But no spike

Why?
Posted by lsursb
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2004
12369 posts
Posted on 8/15/20 at 10:32 am to
Stole this from Twitter:

I would tell you a COVID-19 joke,

But there’s a 99.62% chance you wouldn’t get it.
Posted by Spankum
The Sip
Member since Jan 2007
63380 posts
Posted on 8/15/20 at 10:45 am to
Excellent! All of the state’s mask mandates must be working!
Posted by Privateer 2007
Member since Jan 2020
7951 posts
Posted on 8/15/20 at 10:51 am to
quote:

second wave like Louisiana


Louisiana didn't have a first wave.
N.O primarily did.
This last uptick was the rest of the state.

Few states will have simple looking curve. Because multiple population centers in a state.

Arizona should look like one wave.
As majority live in one metro area.

Viruses don't respect state boundaries.
Posted by Privateer 2007
Member since Jan 2020
7951 posts
Posted on 8/15/20 at 10:53 am to
quote:

over and over again.....8 weeks


Yep.
And more dense equal steeper curve.

States like the Dakota's, Wyoming, Montana etc will likely never have large spike.

Just a solid little bump. For a longer duration.
Posted by lsursb
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2004
12369 posts
Posted on 8/15/20 at 10:54 am to
quote:

Viruses don't respect state boundaries.


They respect peaceful protests and Walmarts apparently.
Posted by Norbert
Member since Oct 2018
3768 posts
Posted on 8/15/20 at 12:16 pm to
quote:

The 70% immunity requirements would be what is required to return us back to normal operations.


Masks drop this number considerably because it's more difficult to get a viral dose potent enough to make someone with a solid immune system sick.
Posted by loogaroo
Welsh
Member since Dec 2005
43563 posts
Posted on 8/15/20 at 12:55 pm to
Another amazing phenomenon is how angry some get when you present any good news about the virus.

Then, they will go through mental gymnastics to prove how bad it still is.
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
79918 posts
Posted on 8/15/20 at 1:30 pm to
quote:

Thousands of people living in high rises together. They need to use the elevator, need to go to the store, etc. Not to mention the protests.

But no spike

Why?


I think that is what we saw in the beginning. NYC is probably operating below a level they could at this point and that is why their numbers haven't returned.

As people have explained, each barrier we introduce allows herd immunity to be effective at a lower percentage level.
This post was edited on 8/15/20 at 1:30 pm
Posted by Lima Whiskey
Member since Apr 2013
22594 posts
Posted on 8/15/20 at 2:35 pm to
quote:

As people have explained, each barrier we introduce allows herd immunity to be effective at a lower percentage level.


We think these measures help. But we don’t know that.

Masks don’t appear to measurably reduce the reopening spikes.
Posted by msudawg1200
Central Mississippi
Member since Jun 2014
10989 posts
Posted on 8/15/20 at 2:37 pm to
quote:

All experts are saying we are no where near this

Yeah, they've been so right on everything.
Posted by tiggerfan02
HSV, AL
Member since May 2020
366 posts
Posted on 8/15/20 at 2:50 pm to
Stop listening to so-called "experts" who have been woefully wrong for 5 months now, and learn to think and reason for yourself using the data available to everyone.
Posted by Ross
Member since Oct 2007
47827 posts
Posted on 8/15/20 at 2:58 pm to
quote:

You are just as bad as people who post nothing but negative information about covid.



Good news is in short supply, and I welcome it with open arms.

You suck, btw.
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
79918 posts
Posted on 8/15/20 at 5:30 pm to
There is plenty of good news out there. Some people can only read headlines though.
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