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Started By
Message
2
Posted on 8/23/17 at 7:37 am to GEAUXmedic
Much appreciation to you baws for keeping us posted. I have no what I'm looking at, until I see "swirly" projections. But damn, I respect y'all knowing your shite. 
Posted on 8/23/17 at 7:39 am to Bossier2323
Let's just get the annual memes rolling.
Will this effect kickoff next Saturday?
Will this effect kickoff next Saturday?
This post was edited on 8/23/17 at 7:40 am
Posted on 8/23/17 at 7:40 am to TigerStripes06
quote:
The gfs rainfall forecast between now and September 1st is not catastrophic for anyone in LA. From this time yesterday morning, to this morning, totals have backed WAY off. Again, I'm no expert. And these models change every 6 hours.
I beg to differ. This is the 24-hour accumulated rainfall total through Monday night...
This is the total accumulated rainfall through Monday night.
Posted on 8/23/17 at 7:45 am to slackster
Looks like the low level center is at about 21.5N 92.5W according to the recon data. Pressure is about 1006 mb.
Posted on 8/23/17 at 7:46 am to rds dc
I don't have a lot of confidence in the forecast, the models are moving Harvey through an area with not much steering in between two ridges. Then it just kind of meanders waiting on the S/W (blue line over the Pacific NW) to move SE in the northern stream and kick it out of the area. The problem, that S/W won't be on shore for two more days and the models really struggle with those small scale features until they get much closer in time.
Posted on 8/23/17 at 7:51 am to rds dc
So you think it stays around longer?
Posted on 8/23/17 at 7:51 am to lsuman25
Recon is trying to close off the center north of where 06z models initialized.
Posted on 8/23/17 at 7:59 am to GEAUXmedic
They closed it off...
Posted on 8/23/17 at 8:02 am to NorthEndZone
quote:
They closed it off...
Posted on 8/23/17 at 8:04 am to Gillnet
Found the low level center of circulation
Posted on 8/23/17 at 8:06 am to Gillnet
quote:
What does that mean?
means the bun is in the oven
Posted on 8/23/17 at 8:07 am to GEAUXmedic
Anyone find it interesting that the base of the penis of rainfall from Harvey (MIKE VII) starts in Houston and appears to be penetrating bama?
Coincidence? I think not.
Posted on 8/23/17 at 8:09 am to BigHoss
cenla gonna get drenched
Posted on 8/23/17 at 8:10 am to tke857
Posted on 8/23/17 at 8:11 am to rds dc
Can you dumb that down? As in " blah blah blah does not look good for X" or " blah blah blah looks promising for X"
Posted on 8/23/17 at 8:11 am to NorthEndZone
So due to be hurricane Harvey again pretty soon? Several models show a projected path pretty much right over our coast house, any good feeling on what kind strength we might be looking at landfall. Been thinking (hoping and praying) we're just looking at a big rain event, a midsized hurricane with strong gust and storm surge would be bad obviously.Thanks for any insight.
Posted on 8/23/17 at 8:12 am to lsuman25
quote:
So you think it stays around longer?
Can't really say, that northern stream S/W could be weaker, slower, not dig as much, etc. That could move Harvey along slower or let it sink back towards the Gulf as the ridge builds in. The opposite is also in play and that could move things along faster. Complicated setup with no easy answers but things look bad.
Posted on 8/23/17 at 8:15 am to rds dc
I trust you rds. is there a shot that this thing could come to BR. Whats the latest on this thing.
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