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Started By
Message
Danny - no longer a threat
Posted on 8/17/15 at 11:02 am
Posted on 8/17/15 at 11:02 am
Danny went from a category 3 hurricane to a trough of low pressure in just a couple days. Dry air and very strong wind shear gave this storm a good old fashioned arse-whooping. Erika is about to generate behind him, though, and from all indications, she will almost certainly be one for the southeast Atlantic coast to watch. The door for her to end up in the Gulf isn't closed but it's not likely.
Original thread body
2015 Hurricane Season Forecast
Activity is forecast to be about 20% below the 1950-2014 average and about 30% below the 2005-2014 average. This means the following numbers are the official forecast:
Tropical Storms - 13
Hurricanes - 6
Major Hurricanes - 2
Storm Names
Anna
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda
The 65-year climate norm is 11 Tropical Storms, 6 Hurricanes, and 3 intense Hurricanes.
Notable storms that have affected the Baton Rouge area in recent memory:
1. Andrew (1992) - Shredded SELA with wind damage, power outages for 2 weeks
2. Allison (2001) - Flooded SELA with 30+ inches of rain
3. Lili (2002) - Cat 4 weakened to Cat 2 just before landfall. SELA, being on the east side of the eye, dodged a huge bullet
4. Katrina (2005) - 60 miles to the west and BR would have been destroyed by strong Cat 3 wind gusts
5. Rita (2005) - Lots of rain, some wind
6. Gustav (2008) - BR shredded by wind & power outages for 2 weeks
7. Ike (2008) - A little wind, some rain
8. Isaac (2012) - TONS of rain, some outages, 60 mph wind
Suggested Preparedness Supplies List
1. Drinking Water - one gallon/person/day in plastic containers.
2. Additional drinking water to mix baby formula with if you have infants
3. Extra containers of water to use for flushing toilets, cleaning, bathing, etc..
4. 3-7 days of food for each family member
5. Canned meats, fruits, vegitables
6. High energy foods such as crackers, granola bars, trail mix.
7. Bread
8. Vitamins
9. Prescription medication (two weeks' supply)
10. Paper cups, plates, and plastic utensils
11. Non-electric can opener
12. Lots of ICE
13. Hand sanitizer
14. Personal hygiene items
15. Plastic garbage bags
16. First Aid Kit
17. Guns and ammo (in the event of power outages and alarm systems no longer work)
18. Duct tape
19. Saw
20. Ax
21. BBQ grill
22. Sun screen
23. Batteries
24. Radio
25. Flashlights
26. Portable a/c unit
27. Rake/shovel
Baby Needs
1. Special foods
2. Formula (enough for several days)
3. Medicines
4. Blakets
5. Diaper rash ointment
6. Baby whipes
7. Powder
8. Bottles
9. Pacifier
10. Favorite toy/blanket
11. Medicine dropper
Original thread body
2015 Hurricane Season Forecast
Activity is forecast to be about 20% below the 1950-2014 average and about 30% below the 2005-2014 average. This means the following numbers are the official forecast:
Tropical Storms - 13
Hurricanes - 6
Major Hurricanes - 2
Storm Names
Anna
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda
The 65-year climate norm is 11 Tropical Storms, 6 Hurricanes, and 3 intense Hurricanes.
Notable storms that have affected the Baton Rouge area in recent memory:
1. Andrew (1992) - Shredded SELA with wind damage, power outages for 2 weeks
2. Allison (2001) - Flooded SELA with 30+ inches of rain
3. Lili (2002) - Cat 4 weakened to Cat 2 just before landfall. SELA, being on the east side of the eye, dodged a huge bullet
4. Katrina (2005) - 60 miles to the west and BR would have been destroyed by strong Cat 3 wind gusts
5. Rita (2005) - Lots of rain, some wind
6. Gustav (2008) - BR shredded by wind & power outages for 2 weeks
7. Ike (2008) - A little wind, some rain
8. Isaac (2012) - TONS of rain, some outages, 60 mph wind
Suggested Preparedness Supplies List
1. Drinking Water - one gallon/person/day in plastic containers.
2. Additional drinking water to mix baby formula with if you have infants
3. Extra containers of water to use for flushing toilets, cleaning, bathing, etc..
4. 3-7 days of food for each family member
5. Canned meats, fruits, vegitables
6. High energy foods such as crackers, granola bars, trail mix.
7. Bread
8. Vitamins
9. Prescription medication (two weeks' supply)
10. Paper cups, plates, and plastic utensils
11. Non-electric can opener
12. Lots of ICE
13. Hand sanitizer
14. Personal hygiene items
15. Plastic garbage bags
16. First Aid Kit
17. Guns and ammo (in the event of power outages and alarm systems no longer work)
18. Duct tape
19. Saw
20. Ax
21. BBQ grill
22. Sun screen
23. Batteries
24. Radio
25. Flashlights
26. Portable a/c unit
27. Rake/shovel
Baby Needs
1. Special foods
2. Formula (enough for several days)
3. Medicines
4. Blakets
5. Diaper rash ointment
6. Baby whipes
7. Powder
8. Bottles
9. Pacifier
10. Favorite toy/blanket
11. Medicine dropper
This post was edited on 8/24/15 at 11:37 am
40
Posted on 8/17/15 at 11:03 am to TDsngumbo
does it look like it will head in the GoM or stay in the Atlantic?
Posted on 8/17/15 at 11:03 am to TDsngumbo
Tell me when I need to leave. TIA 
Posted on 8/17/15 at 11:04 am to TDsngumbo
South Carolina gonna get fricked up
Posted on 8/17/15 at 11:05 am to colorchangintiger
quote:
South Carolina gonna get fricked up
We're very overdue for a major hurricane. Last one was Hugo in 1989.
Posted on 8/17/15 at 11:05 am to colorchangintiger
And then hitting a mass wave of wind shear and dying.
Posted on 8/17/15 at 11:05 am to LSUvegasbombed
quote:
does it look like it will head in the GoM or stay in the Atlantic?
Way too soon to tell but it's the most serious threat as of yet this season since it's forecast to make it into the Caribbean. Those typically end up in the GOM eventually unless there's a strong high pressure situated over the Bahamas to steer it directly into the Yucatan.
Posted on 8/17/15 at 11:05 am to TDsngumbo
will go poof when it gets to the caribbean
This post was edited on 8/17/15 at 11:06 am
Posted on 8/17/15 at 11:06 am to DVinBR
quote:
will go poof when it gets to the caribbean
That was the thinking early on but now they're beginning to back off of that. At least they're not as confident as they were before.
Posted on 8/17/15 at 11:10 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
It is likely to weaken as it approaches the Caribbean Sea in 8-10 days.
Posted on 8/17/15 at 11:10 am to DVinBR
quote:yea I wouldnt bank on that.
will go poof when it gets to the caribbean
seems like models are starting to split on weather or not this turns up. could get interesting for sure.
Posted on 8/17/15 at 11:12 am to TDsngumbo
I'm surprised that Danny is still on the list. In 1997, another Hurricane Danny did some damage in the Mobile, AL area. A tree fell on my cousin's house.
I don't remember the 1985 Hurricane Danny that hit Louisiana. I was a senior in H.S. I don't remember getting to skip school.
I don't remember the 1985 Hurricane Danny that hit Louisiana. I was a senior in H.S. I don't remember getting to skip school.
Posted on 8/17/15 at 11:13 am to BRgetthenet
If this goes towards the Caribbean then it will get shredded. The Caribbean is so hostile right now it is not funny. There is just tons of sinking stable air. Maybe if it can stay intact as a wave then it could get its act back together again should it get to the Gulf but this is highly unlikely.
Posted on 8/17/15 at 11:15 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
There's a 70% chance of development and one of the leading models used by the NHC indicates a substantial hurricane headed toward the Caribbean in about a week.
To be fair, the HWRF is good at predicting track, but still lacking in predicting intensity, and has a history of predicting a higher than actual intensity. Not to mention, unless conditions change the Caribbean will kill this thing.
Also, useful fact for yall, when looking at this map below pay attention to the TVCN consensus model. This is what the NHC usually uses for their cone.
The three BAM models (Deep layer, Medium layer and Shallow layer) are pretty good at day 3-5 tracking, and show what would happen at different intensities of the storm (Deep=strong, Shallow=weak)
GDFL is what the HWRF is replacing eventually.
CMC is widely known as the crazy uncle... just usually off the wall...
CLP5 is useless, it's just a model based on recent trends, not what is actually happening with the storm/environment.
XTRP is just an extrapolation of the current movement of the storm.
This post was edited on 8/17/15 at 11:22 am
Posted on 8/17/15 at 11:18 am to BigB0882
I was thinking to myself yesterday how quiet it has been on the storm front. I didn't verbalize because I didn't want to jinx us all.
Posted on 8/17/15 at 11:23 am to TDsngumbo
So when might it show up if it were to come to LA?
Posted on 8/17/15 at 11:29 am to lsuhunt555
IF it were probably mid to late next week.
Posted on 8/17/15 at 11:32 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
4. Katrina (2005) - 60 miles to the west and BR would have been destroyed by strong Cat 3 wind gusts
What a weird way to summarize Katrina.
Posted on 8/17/15 at 11:35 am to Pedro
just in time to possibly frick with Labor day
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