Coronavirus Math Problem

3.50 people assuming one is over the age of 60

1 in 350

What are the odds the first 350 replies in this thread contain the number "350"?

100 percent. It was me that had it and 9 women rated as an OT 10 in the group. I gave it to them all on the last day. They were begging for it on the first day but I made them make sammiches for me all week before I gave it to them because I'm a genius stud.

Hmm...since one of them tested positive after leaving the assumption is then one of the five remaining had it (so 2 out of 10), including the one that left and the one that was remaining.

The generally listed attack rate (from probably aged sources now) is 10% so even if one of the 5 remaining people had it, there’s only a 50% chance that they would have transmitted it to any of the 5 people that left.

So, therefore, the estimate is that 2 of the 5 people remaining had CV in order to affect the 1 that left (so 3 out of 10 total).

Now, the person that got it upon leaving would have only showed up if they didn’t think CV was a possibility, meaning that the existing cases were asymptomatic. Which results in the following equation:

2(existing)+0.5(asymptomatic factor)+1 leaving = 3.50 cases of Coronavirus

7

Lost me at 3.50