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Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 5/8/20 at 7:10 am to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 5/8/20 at 7:10 am to GOP_Tiger
Actually shocked I'm not the only one who has thought of this obvious thing about religious gatherings. Many religious people are so filled with zeal, they don't see the bowl of wrong. It is up to the church leaders to figure something out.
Glad at least some churches are considering the ramifications. I get that religion is all about gathering and sharing and fellowship. I've heard from people about how some of the mega churches have cleverly - in just this past week - have upped their on-line game to the point of seeing them squeezing out more of the smaller churches who can't compete on that level.
Glad at least some churches are considering the ramifications. I get that religion is all about gathering and sharing and fellowship. I've heard from people about how some of the mega churches have cleverly - in just this past week - have upped their on-line game to the point of seeing them squeezing out more of the smaller churches who can't compete on that level.
2
Posted on 5/8/20 at 7:53 am to LarryDavid
quote:
I've heard from people about how some of the mega churches have cleverly - in just this past week - have upped their on-line game to the point of seeing them squeezing out more of the smaller churches who can't compete on that level.
I go to a larger non denominational church (wouldn't consider it a mega church though). The senior Pastor lives modestly(I have never seen him in anything flashy and expensive) and sermons are all straight from the Bible and not about some BS prosperity feel good gospel. We have had our sermons available online for several years now. We have an app and podcast as well. I know a lot of people have always liked the online format for when they physically cannot go to church (bed bound or out of state or whatever reason). We have a lot of snowbirds in Scottsdale so many of them like to listen to our sermons when they move back to Canada, etc.
Anyways....with all the coronavirus stuff and being online only...I've noticed our church has been very welcoming to guests from other smaller churches who may be watching our sermons for the first time. Every sermon they will mention that guests from other churches should still give to their home church and NOT give to ours.
I know our church will be very cautious about reopening back up. Several of our members of our elder board are actually well respected physicians (one is the CEO of the Mayo hospital in Scottsdale) so at least church leaders have some trusted medical insight on how to safely reopen and what church will look like moving forward when the time comes.
ETA: It is already hitting triple digit highs here in Scottsdale so meeting outside wouldn't be a very viable option for churches here(unless church is only at night or wayyy early in the am or something)
This post was edited on 5/8/20 at 7:58 am
Posted on 5/8/20 at 1:26 pm to Jim Rockford
We had discussed the Vitamin-D angle many pages ago on this thread. That paper conveniently explains a lot if the trends we are seeing with COVID-19, but I will withhold judgement until it goes through some peer review. That would be great news if it turns out to be that simple. You better stock up on your Vitamin D now cause it will be gone as soon as this starts making the national news cycle.
Posted on 5/8/20 at 1:31 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
Paper confirms Vitamin D deficiency
Could be another factor as to why it is affecting African-Americans and other dark complected peoples more severely in some places.
Posted on 5/8/20 at 1:49 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
People who don't want to get rid of the virus often talk about the "Wuhan option," and I don't understand why they don't talk about the "Korean option."
First of all, they actually quarantine positive people, do contact tracing, and then quarantine the contacts. That last part is critical and leads to a rapid decrease in transmission.
I sometimes hear people say, "Oh we couldn't lock people up who test positive." and my response is "As opposed to locking up the entire population?"
In fairness, South Korea had a trial run with MERS five years ago.
Posted on 5/8/20 at 4:07 pm to Sasquatch Smash
My wife’s grandfather, who’s knocking on the door of 97, tested positive a few weeks ago. From what we’ve heard he’s actually doing remarkably well. They tested him again today to see if he’s still positive. He had been in the hospital for a different issue and they’re pretty sure he caught it from a nurse there. So he’s been at the hospital the whole time
This post was edited on 5/8/20 at 4:17 pm
Posted on 5/8/20 at 4:35 pm to Glock17
Praying for him brother
Posted on 5/8/20 at 4:50 pm to GOP_Tiger
Korea shut down clubs and bars again because a bunch of people popped positive, even after all they did.
If it can happen in Korea, it's gonna happen everywhere.
shutting everything down is akin to swimming directly to shore when caught in a rip tide
it's time to move on and brace.
If it can happen in Korea, it's gonna happen everywhere.
shutting everything down is akin to swimming directly to shore when caught in a rip tide
it's time to move on and brace.
This post was edited on 5/8/20 at 4:51 pm
Posted on 5/8/20 at 7:43 pm to Glock17
This brings up a question someone asked a few days ago. If he was tested initially, then tested again today, does that count in the raw numbers as 2 positive tests? And good on him if he beat it.
Posted on 5/8/20 at 7:58 pm to MarcusQuinn
Louisiana appears to be throwing out the additional test, but not the positive case.
Posted on 5/8/20 at 8:08 pm to Tiguar
The above article on Vitamin D only emphasizes what I've been saying: we're winning the fight against the virus.
Today is the fourth day out of the last five that our national positive test percentage has been under 10%, and we previously hadn't achieved a day under 10% since March.
With summer at hand, we can open most things up, basically go about our regular lives, and still keep the R value of the virus under 0.9 and get rid of it by the end of summer.
With the precautions that businesses are taking, people wearing masks, the increase in UV (which kills the virus and causes people to produce Vitamin D), the immunity which we already have built up in key populations, and the ongoing increase in testing, we don't have to brace ourselves. All we have to do is prevent the superspreading events like megachurch services, big weddings, concerts, sporting events, etc.
I'm for "opening up," but for different reasons than some others here.
Today is the fourth day out of the last five that our national positive test percentage has been under 10%, and we previously hadn't achieved a day under 10% since March.
With summer at hand, we can open most things up, basically go about our regular lives, and still keep the R value of the virus under 0.9 and get rid of it by the end of summer.
With the precautions that businesses are taking, people wearing masks, the increase in UV (which kills the virus and causes people to produce Vitamin D), the immunity which we already have built up in key populations, and the ongoing increase in testing, we don't have to brace ourselves. All we have to do is prevent the superspreading events like megachurch services, big weddings, concerts, sporting events, etc.
I'm for "opening up," but for different reasons than some others here.
Posted on 5/8/20 at 11:43 pm to LarryDavid
quote:
ually shocked I'm not the only one who has thought of this obvious thing about religious gatherings. Many religious people are so filled with zeal, they don't see the bowl of wrong. It is up to the church leaders to figure something out. Glad at least some churches are considering the ramifications. I get that religion is all about gathering and sharing and fellowship. I've heard from people about how some of the mega churches have cleverly - in just this past week - have upped their on-line game to the point of seeing them squeezing out more of the smaller churches who can't compete on that level.
So I live in a county that has had 5 cases/0 deaths (neighboring county has had 11 cases/0 deaths) and an area where there has been a very small impact from the virus and is several hours from anywhere that did have an impact from the virus. Because of that and my business which was not shutdown but also requires me to be out and about, I have hardly been quarantined and have been all over the place and around a bunch of ppl.
When our church announced that we were going back to regular services on the 17th I was fairly surprised we were going back so early but also have debated going back that date myself. Our church has even more old folks than average and I’m pretty sure most of them are going to go that Sunday regardless of the virus and the last thing I want to do is give it to them. I’m not much worried about myself if I get it, I’m not yet 30 and in decent shape but the idea of unknowingly carrying it to someone at church and/or starting a wildfire of it through our church is concerning to me
This post was edited on 5/8/20 at 11:43 pm
Posted on 5/9/20 at 11:30 am to GOP_Tiger
cross posting from poliboard
--
clinical update
I've been getting my arse kicked up and down the hallways here. volume is up and so are covid cases. I'll probably end up popping positive before this is over unless I'm one of those asymptomatic cases that never gets tested.
we've used Actrema in a few cases where we caught them going into cytokine storm early with nothing short of miraculous results. it really has been impressive and stops it in it's tracks. people satting in the low 80s with high fever satting 100 a few hours later saying how much better they feel.
--
clinical update
I've been getting my arse kicked up and down the hallways here. volume is up and so are covid cases. I'll probably end up popping positive before this is over unless I'm one of those asymptomatic cases that never gets tested.
we've used Actrema in a few cases where we caught them going into cytokine storm early with nothing short of miraculous results. it really has been impressive and stops it in it's tracks. people satting in the low 80s with high fever satting 100 a few hours later saying how much better they feel.
Posted on 5/9/20 at 11:40 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
With the precautions that businesses are taking, people wearing masks, the increase in UV (which kills the virus and causes people to produce Vitamin D), the immunity which we already have built up in key populations, and the ongoing increase in testing, we don't have to brace ourselves. All we have to do is prevent the superspreading events like megachurch services, big weddings, concerts, sporting events, etc.
I wish it were so, but I don't think it will work out this way. We are going to have to carry on and brace ourselves. I'm afraid there is no other way. Sweden here we come. It is where we should have been all along. We should do what we can to shield the nursing homes but let everyone else go about their business.
Posted on 5/9/20 at 1:01 pm to SloaneRanger
But Sweden isn't in that bad of shape. Look what happened there. They put in place some restrictions (no groups of more than 50, for example), and, after that, their R value stayed at about 1.
That's what I'm for: reasonable restrictions on big groups, concerts, requiring a little more spacing in restaurants, maybe keep the bars and gyms closed another couple of weeks, but wear masks and otherwise live normally. There's no reason to believe that this would push our R value over 1.
That's what I'm for: reasonable restrictions on big groups, concerts, requiring a little more spacing in restaurants, maybe keep the bars and gyms closed another couple of weeks, but wear masks and otherwise live normally. There's no reason to believe that this would push our R value over 1.
Posted on 5/9/20 at 1:40 pm to GOP_Tiger
They retested my wife’s pawpaw today and he tested negative after being in the hospital for quite a while. He’ll be 97 soon. Pretty incredible that he maybe has the covid beat. They’re going to test him again and if he’s neg they’ll release him to a nursing home
This post was edited on 5/9/20 at 1:58 pm
Posted on 5/9/20 at 2:25 pm to GOP_Tiger
This new paper raises an important question: what if some people are harder to infect with COVID-19 than others?
When people discuss herd immunity, they usually assume that all people are equally susceptible to infection. But, in many cases, that isn't true.
I have already talked here (without using mathematical models) about how variation in exposure lowers the R value of the virus. COVID-19 has already infected prisoners and nursing home residents at a high rate, so they cannot be vectors in potential a 2nd wave. It will be difficult for the virus to sweep through meatpacking plants again, because so many workers now have immunity.
Our most vulnerable city, New York, has substantial immunity built up which will make a 2nd wave there much easier to contain.
But I didn't consider the possibility that stronger immune systems or other factors may simply prevent infection at lower levels of viral load. If some people get sick at a given level of exposure and others don't, then again, the virus has already gotten much of the low-lying fruit, so to speak. And there's a lot of reason to think that this is the case; we know that children, for example, seem to be less likely to become infected.
What this means is that there could be true herd immunity with as little as 20% of the population having antibodies. We really don't know, because we don't know just variable people are (the authors state that research here should be a priority).
The fact that hospitalizations in Sweden have peaked and are headed downward indicate that there might be some truth in the hypothesis, advanced in this paper, that a coefficient of variation for this virus might be about 3, which would support the idea that places like Sweden and NYC might already have reached herd immunity.
When people discuss herd immunity, they usually assume that all people are equally susceptible to infection. But, in many cases, that isn't true.
I have already talked here (without using mathematical models) about how variation in exposure lowers the R value of the virus. COVID-19 has already infected prisoners and nursing home residents at a high rate, so they cannot be vectors in potential a 2nd wave. It will be difficult for the virus to sweep through meatpacking plants again, because so many workers now have immunity.
Our most vulnerable city, New York, has substantial immunity built up which will make a 2nd wave there much easier to contain.
But I didn't consider the possibility that stronger immune systems or other factors may simply prevent infection at lower levels of viral load. If some people get sick at a given level of exposure and others don't, then again, the virus has already gotten much of the low-lying fruit, so to speak. And there's a lot of reason to think that this is the case; we know that children, for example, seem to be less likely to become infected.
What this means is that there could be true herd immunity with as little as 20% of the population having antibodies. We really don't know, because we don't know just variable people are (the authors state that research here should be a priority).
The fact that hospitalizations in Sweden have peaked and are headed downward indicate that there might be some truth in the hypothesis, advanced in this paper, that a coefficient of variation for this virus might be about 3, which would support the idea that places like Sweden and NYC might already have reached herd immunity.
This post was edited on 5/9/20 at 2:29 pm
Posted on 5/9/20 at 3:23 pm to GOP_Tiger
there is a running hypothesis right now that those with somewhat recent MMR vaccination history are faring better.
There is a spike protein on the Rubella portion of the MMR attenuation that is 30%~ similar to the SARS2CoV19 virus.
This would actually explain a lot of what we're seeing if this ends up being factual.
There is a spike protein on the Rubella portion of the MMR attenuation that is 30%~ similar to the SARS2CoV19 virus.
This would actually explain a lot of what we're seeing if this ends up being factual.
Posted on 5/9/20 at 4:15 pm to Tiguar
quote:
here is a running hypothesis right now that those with somewhat recent MMR vaccination history are faring better.
That would be so awesome if any truth to that.
The vaccine stupid antivaxxers have been ranting about for years.....is the thing that protects you better from COVID-19
This post was edited on 5/9/20 at 4:16 pm
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