Chris Murray COVID-19 Model

I wish I could help but there's no way in hell I'm reading scientific research on a Saturday morning with nice weather.

IHME is what the feds are using. They assume pretty solid payoff from social distancing.

Some states are using CHIME from Penn, which is less rosy on social distancing and people actually adhering to it.

Basically just a matter of assumptions. Any of the models you see are also going to be built on highly incomplete data until we have both mass testing for active virus and antibodies.

Here's my post from yesterday - sent to IMHE -

URGENT URGENT - your Covid Models are way way overstated for demand on hospitals and probably number of deaths!!

I am very very impressed with your work but please, please revise the models for latest data by cohorts of week of diagnosis and latest testing results.....the decisions based on these WORST CASE model are disastrous to our country and the world economy.

I am an MIT educated data scientist who has built pragmatically useful predictive models for business management for over 50 years. Many have been similar to the types of "death/survival" rates being predicted here. Most of my models are built by cohorts of "time om of entry" to adjust for biases on early buyer behaviors for products and services. I suggest you immediately identify difference in cohorts of Covid 19 patients for period of diagnosis

1. Models are only as good as the data that set the parameters/assumptions

2. All of these models are based only on the earliest data

3. OBVIOUSLY, All of the earliest data were only from severely ill patients - those most in need of hospitalization, with other medical conditions....diabetes, obesity, weak immune systems.

4. Later data would now show by far the majority people who are infected with the Wuhan Virus are asymptomatic and fend off the disease with their own immune systems or less heroic treatment than intubation etc...
Data by state by cohorts of week of diagnosis would allow you to correct/adjust these model for REALISTIC ESTIMATES of TOTAL POPULATION, not just those of those first admitted/diagnosed!!

5. I have reviewed the published predicted vs. actual state by state forecasts from these models -- while they are seemingly relatively close in their predictions of the deaths, they are almost always high (and very high!!) in their predictions of CRITICALLY OVERSTATING THE DEMANDS ON HOSPITALS!!

New York is one of the few states giving out detailed information on hospitalizations. Using their numbers vs IMHE and the model fails pretty spectacularly. There is supposed to be an update today though. It might be out, I haven't checked yet.

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So are you thinking their model might be pretty accurate in terms of how many COVID related death we will see?

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No - I think their models are overstating the death rates too...have no data to say that yet other than they keep lowering their forecast for Washington starew down and the peak date to earlier

Their lower range is 39,000 deaths....my back of the envelope calc say 25,000 max and probably under 20,000