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Started By
Message
re: Big Cold Blast Coming - Round 2
Posted on 12/28/17 at 7:46 am to bayoubengals88
Posted on 12/28/17 at 7:46 am to bayoubengals88
2
Posted on 12/28/17 at 8:09 am to bayoubengals88
Euro coming to play on Tuesday
Posted on 12/28/17 at 8:23 am to LSUJuice
Looks similar to 12/8
Posted on 12/28/17 at 8:34 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Posted on 12/28/17 at 8:34 am to bayoubengals88
The stars are certainly aligning right now. We'll have to wait and see if they keep doing so or if they crash and burn. As of now, it looks quite promising.
Posted on 12/28/17 at 8:38 am to bayoubengals88
I like how the weather channel graphic says the only places that need to worry about snow on 1/2 are Texas, LA, and Mississippi, outside of some lake effect snow in the NE.
This post was edited on 12/28/17 at 8:38 am
Posted on 12/28/17 at 8:40 am to slackster
I’m guessing the rest of the places are just to it and they know how much of a shite show the south is with any ice/snow
Posted on 12/28/17 at 8:44 am to LSUJuice
NWS New Orleans Forecast Discussion:
As we begin the New Year we will start it on a very cold note.Temps will struggle to get out of the 30s and may even struggle toreach the mid 30s across northwest portions of the CWA. This will set the stage for what should be the coldest night so far on Monday night. This Arctic airmass will be sitting right over theheart of the CONUS Monday and then continue to slide south in the southern Plains Monday night.
This set up indicates that wewill still be under the influence of cold air advection(CAA)
initially. I bring this up as Monday night will not be the optimalradiational cooling setup and some of our coldest nights usuallyaren`t and are more associated with CAA. Winds may finally decouple at the sfc after midnight but in the LL will likely still
be in the 15-20kt range.
As long as CAA is occurring temps will continue to fall. With this I have dropped morning lows a few more degrees and am now indicating teens in a few locations and this still may not be cold enough. If this occurs it could be some of the coldest readings we have seen since Jan 2015 and 2014(outside of 2 days in MCB this past Jan).
A new wrinkle has now popped up with the forecast for Tuesday and into Tuesday night. The ECMWF is far more aggressive with moisture
returning with the cold airmass still in place. The GFS on the other hand does not have the overrunning threat.
This has a lot to do with how the models are handling all of the energy coming out of the northwest. The ECMWF has a much stronger s/w come across the central Plains and into the Mid and Lower MS valleys. This draws a lot more
moisture north and thus actually produces winter precip (likely snow) over the area. Am not going to show that yet.
This piece of energy is still back in the Northwest Territories as far as I can tell and wont even begin to push southeast till Saturday while it also merges with another system coming out of the PAC northwest. So obviously you can see where the models may not have a great handle on this however it is something to watch for and see if the trend is towards that. /CAB/
As we begin the New Year we will start it on a very cold note.Temps will struggle to get out of the 30s and may even struggle toreach the mid 30s across northwest portions of the CWA. This will set the stage for what should be the coldest night so far on Monday night. This Arctic airmass will be sitting right over theheart of the CONUS Monday and then continue to slide south in the southern Plains Monday night.
This set up indicates that wewill still be under the influence of cold air advection(CAA)
initially. I bring this up as Monday night will not be the optimalradiational cooling setup and some of our coldest nights usuallyaren`t and are more associated with CAA. Winds may finally decouple at the sfc after midnight but in the LL will likely still
be in the 15-20kt range.
As long as CAA is occurring temps will continue to fall. With this I have dropped morning lows a few more degrees and am now indicating teens in a few locations and this still may not be cold enough. If this occurs it could be some of the coldest readings we have seen since Jan 2015 and 2014(outside of 2 days in MCB this past Jan).
A new wrinkle has now popped up with the forecast for Tuesday and into Tuesday night. The ECMWF is far more aggressive with moisture
returning with the cold airmass still in place. The GFS on the other hand does not have the overrunning threat.
This has a lot to do with how the models are handling all of the energy coming out of the northwest. The ECMWF has a much stronger s/w come across the central Plains and into the Mid and Lower MS valleys. This draws a lot more
moisture north and thus actually produces winter precip (likely snow) over the area. Am not going to show that yet.
This piece of energy is still back in the Northwest Territories as far as I can tell and wont even begin to push southeast till Saturday while it also merges with another system coming out of the PAC northwest. So obviously you can see where the models may not have a great handle on this however it is something to watch for and see if the trend is towards that. /CAB/
This post was edited on 12/28/17 at 8:56 am
Posted on 12/28/17 at 8:44 am to slackster
NWS New Orleans discussion:
quote:
A new wrinkle has now popped up with the forecast for Tuesday and into Tuesday night. The ECMWF is far more aggressive with moisture returning with the cold airmass still in place. The GFS on the other hand does not have the overrunning threat. This has a lot to do with how the models are handling all of the energy coming out of the northwest. The ECMWF has a much stronger s/w come across the central Plains and into the Mid and Lower MS valleys. This draws a lot more moisture north and thus actually produces winter precip (likely snow) over the area. Am not going to show that yet. This piece of energy is still back in the Northwest Territories as far as I can tell and wont even begin to push southeast till Saturday while it also merges with another system coming out of the PAC northwest. So obviously you can see where the models may not have a great handle on this however it is something to watch for and see if the trend is towards that.
This post was edited on 12/28/17 at 8:46 am
Posted on 12/28/17 at 8:48 am to TDsngumbo
Posted on 12/28/17 at 8:48 am to TDsngumbo
I'm spending New Years with my family in North Louisiana, planned on driving back to NOLA on New Years Day. I'm going to have to keep a watch on this. I knew it was going to be cold but I wasn't expecting ice/snow/etc.
Posted on 12/28/17 at 8:49 am to LSUJuice
The following will not be said this time:
1) but the ground will be so warm!
2) but there might be a warm nose!
1) but the ground will be so warm!
2) but there might be a warm nose!
Posted on 12/28/17 at 8:51 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
bayoubengals88
You should edit that so people know that's the NOLA NWS discussion.
Posted on 12/28/17 at 8:53 am to Rox
YEAh, my dumbass planned a trip to NC to see snow (where I won’t), and now I might run into it south of Hattiesburg coming home!
Gonna have to leave NC in time to make it back before any ice can stick. Shooting for 5:00 PM
(Assuming the Euro pans out, which it did last time).
Gonna have to leave NC in time to make it back before any ice can stick. Shooting for 5:00 PM
(Assuming the Euro pans out, which it did last time).
This post was edited on 12/28/17 at 8:54 am
Posted on 12/28/17 at 8:55 am to slackster
Let's play a game called "can you see where the Rocky Mountains are on a temperature anomaly map"?
Posted on 12/28/17 at 8:56 am to bayoubengals88
Lol I never would of thought DFW would get zero snow and Houston/LA get half a foot in total for the winter.
Weather wtf!!
Weather wtf!!
Posted on 12/28/17 at 8:56 am to bayoubengals88
I'm honestly kinda hoping I get stuck up there and don't have to come back to work for a few days. 
Posted on 12/28/17 at 8:56 am to bayoubengals88
Damn didn't notice you had just posted that. Well here's the NWS Houston re Tuesday:
quote:
Heading into Tuesday, medium range guidance becomes considerably inconsistent with precipitation potential for the region. All drive an upper level trough across the region, increasing divergence and accordingly lift for precipitation to develop but are dramatically different when considering the amplitude of this trough (affecting where the best lift occurs) and the available moisture (European and Canadian are saturated in the low levels, GFS is dry). However, even with the inconsistency in moisture there may be enough dynamic forcing with this upper trough to result in portions of the atmosphere above the surface to cool to saturation and provide at least some window for precipitation during the day. Have pulled low (20%) precipitation chances north towards Interstate 10 as a result. Thermal profiles during this time are also somewhat inconsistent between the models and if precipitation does occur (still not certain)... it could range from rain to freezing rain to rain to snow. Have kept the precipitation type only as rain for now given these inconsistencies but additional refinements to precipitation
type/chances/impacts will be likely over the coming days.
This post was edited on 12/28/17 at 8:59 am
Posted on 12/28/17 at 8:58 am to Rox
quote:
I'm honestly kinda hoping I get stuck up there and don't have to come back to work for a few days.
That's the spirit.
Posted on 12/28/17 at 9:00 am to Rox
Yeah I normally drive back to Houston from Picayune on the 2nd. If we go I may need to leave ew years day which makes the trip barely worth it.
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