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Started By
Message
re: Big Cold Blast Coming - Round 2
Posted on 12/26/17 at 8:24 pm to LakeViewLSU
Posted on 12/26/17 at 8:24 pm to LakeViewLSU
quote:
I really don’t think it’s going to be that bad. If it were, this thread would be stickied and the subject would be in all caps
Hard to argue with this logic.
0
Posted on 12/26/17 at 8:27 pm to LakeViewLSU
quote:
I really don’t think it’s going to be that bad. If it were, this thread would be stickied and the subject would be in all caps.
Posted on 12/26/17 at 8:33 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
For next week, the forecast gets complicated. Upper level flow will become more westerly as a vigorous wave dive south of the Rockies on Sunday according GFS, while ECMWF does not show the wave over the Rockies thus the flow aloft is weaker and more northwest. This flow difference is one feature which allows GFS to have more precip or higher precip chances through Sunday and Sunday night. In addition, GFS has the associated cold surface ridge is more on the high plains. This position would allow cold air to dive over the forecast area late Sunday through Tuesday. ECMWF has the cold ridge farther east with the cold air being displaced east of the forecast area. As for now, we somewhat blended the two. We maintain elevated precip chances Sunday and Sunday night but not as cold Monday and Tuesday. This blend does linger moisture and cold air could be in place before the moisture pushes east. As a result, we introduce a wintry mix Sunday night after midnight across the Southwest Mississippi and Florida Parishes with no accumulation at this time. In addition, freezing temperatures is in the forecast except the immediate Louisiana coast Monday night into Tuesday morning, with a hard freeze currently forecast for northern areas. 18
NOLA forecast discussion.
Posted on 12/26/17 at 8:34 pm to dukke v
What's your prediction pj?
Posted on 12/26/17 at 8:37 pm to slackster
FWIW, keeping us as cold for as long as the GFS does almost requires frozen stuff on the ground to really enhance that radiational cooling at night and to reflect a little sunlight during the day.
Now a few days of 30s and 10s at night with that strong of an artic ridge would be plausable if the GFS gets the strength and placement of the high pressure correct.
Now a few days of 30s and 10s at night with that strong of an artic ridge would be plausable if the GFS gets the strength and placement of the high pressure correct.
Posted on 12/26/17 at 8:41 pm to bayoubengals88
#TeamGrimes
Posted on 12/26/17 at 8:42 pm to slackster
I read that a couple hours ago. I remember exactly ONE chasing event that produced sleet in BR. It wasn’t worth remembering though.
Posted on 12/26/17 at 8:43 pm to Duke
quote:
Now a few days of 30s and 10s at night with that strong of an artic ridge would be plausable if the GFS gets the strength and placement of the high pressure correct.
The Lake Charles forecast discussion said they were erring with the Euro for now due to upper level flows matching surface flows, whatever that means.
Posted on 12/26/17 at 8:49 pm to slackster
Is some type of cone going to be released? I have a hard time understanding a forecast without a cone.
Posted on 12/26/17 at 8:50 pm to slackster
quote:
The Lake Charles forecast discussion said they were erring with the Euro for now due to upper level flows matching surface flows, whatever that means.
Above my paygrade, so I'm just speculating now.
It reads like they are inclined to.buy the Euro because the upper levels move in line with surface projections. And fwiw, an active Pacific throwing energy at the west coast and Rockies without an obvious blocking pattern in the NE leads me to think the cold stays north and travels east over the Midwest. Note, all barely educated speculation.
Posted on 12/26/17 at 9:16 pm to Duke
quote:
the cold stays north and travels east over the Midwest. N
Sounds good. I'm going with this.
Posted on 12/26/17 at 9:32 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
the cold stays north and travels east over the Midwest. N
Sounds good. I'm going with this.
Yep. We riding
Posted on 12/26/17 at 10:14 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
yesh... if this plays out... north & central Louisiana would be a frozen, icy mess
Posted on 12/26/17 at 10:17 pm to rt3
That 1058 mb high.
Relative low pressure area in the gulf tracking the right way across the gulf. That could well be a snow scenario if it were to actually play out.
This post was edited on 12/26/17 at 10:19 pm
Posted on 12/26/17 at 10:21 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
quote:
Yep. We riding
Posted on 12/26/17 at 10:32 pm to LaBR4
GFS did roll in a decent bit warmer, but pushing the same idea as the last day or so.
Posted on 12/26/17 at 10:33 pm to LaBR4
GFS ain't putting any teen or single digit temps out this run... but some good hours of BR somewhere between 25 & 35 degrees
Posted on 12/26/17 at 10:33 pm to Duke
00z is 10 or so degrees warmer. Much more believable than low teens or single digits.
Posted on 12/26/17 at 10:44 pm to Lsuhoohoo
quote:
00z is 10 or so degrees warmer. Much more believable than low teens or single digits.
More believable and much better for us down here. The thing is, it's still bringing a ridiculous dome of artic air down and riding the front range same.as before. Need to get a look at dew points and possible frozen precip with it, because low dew points + snow/ice on ground + calm winds + clear skies would easily drop down into the teens across the area.
Glad to see some moderation into the range of believable and most importantly managble on temperature. Hope it stays with that idea over the next few runs.
Posted on 12/26/17 at 10:57 pm to Duke
can we talk GFS fantasy land again? Another arctic blast dropping temps into the 20s in BR
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