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re: Big Cold Blast Coming - Round 2
Posted on 12/26/17 at 12:44 pm to tigersbh
Posted on 12/26/17 at 12:44 pm to tigersbh
This would make for an interesting NYE...
6PM CST on 12/31 - 64 degrees in Baton Rouge
12AM CST on 1/1 - 35 degrees in Baton Rouge
And supposedly will go below freezing at 6AM CST on 1/1 and won't rise back above freezing until 6PM CST on 1/3 - 60 hours of below freezing.
6PM CST on 12/31 - 64 degrees in Baton Rouge
12AM CST on 1/1 - 35 degrees in Baton Rouge
And supposedly will go below freezing at 6AM CST on 1/1 and won't rise back above freezing until 6PM CST on 1/3 - 60 hours of below freezing.
1
Posted on 12/26/17 at 12:54 pm to slackster
5.5 days of temps that fail to climb above 50 degrees in Baton Rouge, bottoming out at 16 degrees on Tuesday morning.
Posted on 12/26/17 at 12:57 pm to slackster
None of the online forecasts are showing this
Coldest is shows me getting is 24 on tuesday
Coldest is shows me getting is 24 on tuesday
Posted on 12/26/17 at 1:04 pm to Cosmo
quote:
None of the online forecasts are showing this
Nope... Just the weather savants of the OT. Did you survive the apocalyptic ice storm they forecasted for this past weekend?
Posted on 12/26/17 at 1:06 pm to Cosmo
quote:
None of the online forecasts are showing this
They wouldn't be yet. We're a good week away from projected cold that is very unusual for this part of the world.
They'll slowly drop the temperatures as model support continues to show the ridiculous cold. Those really curious should start reading forecast discussions from Shreveport, Slidell, Jackson, and even into Kansas and W Texas where the cold will be diving down into first.
Posted on 12/26/17 at 1:21 pm to Cosmo
quote:
None of the online forecasts are showing this Coldest is shows me getting is 24 on tuesday
Yeah, models =/= official forecasts. The NWS uses them as a guide, so it's the only real snapshot we get of the tools they use to make their official forecasts. It's a major temperature anomaly for an extended period of time - you won't see it reflected in forecasts until it has verified consistently on model runs for the next few days.
Posted on 12/26/17 at 1:24 pm to Cosmo
quote:
None of the online forecasts are showing this
Coldest is shows me getting is 24 on tuesday
At 6-7 days out the online/tv broadcasts for public consumption will generally skew to climatology norm parameters. Now some will step out, such as James Spann here in the Bham area, on occasion but mostly they will generally only reference model output and hint at things but they play it close to the vest generally at that range in time with their actual forecast numbers. That said, if you are wise enough to look deeper into models and such to at least know there is a good chance this will happen, you will be better for it and prepared accordingly.
Posted on 12/26/17 at 1:30 pm to Duke
quote:
This big prolonged cold and we have a positive NAO projected? That's werid.
-NAO isn't necessarily needed for extreme cold. Cold that dumps down the front range into Texas and Louisiana is usually driven by the Pacific, so the WPO/EPO/PNA combo is more important.
I'm not putting much stock into the GFS right now as we still have to get past a couple of chaotic days in the Pacific. Also, the Euro isn't nearly as cold.
Posted on 12/26/17 at 1:35 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Coldest is shows me getting is 24 on tuesday
The AccuWeather app on my phone is showing a low of 17 on 1/1/2018. In Metairie.
This post was edited on 12/26/17 at 1:36 pm
Posted on 12/26/17 at 1:37 pm to rds dc
quote:
NAO isn't necessarily needed for extreme cold. Cold that dumps down the front range into Texas and Louisiana is usually driven by the Pacific, so the WPO/EPO/PNA combo is more important.
I'll store that away in the ole memory banks.
quote:
I'm not putting much stock into the GFS right now as we still have to get past a couple of chaotic days in the Pacific. Also, the Euro isn't nearly as cold.
Certainly. The Euro showed your normal cold snap down here for the new year. An anomaly on the GFS, despite it's consistency, vs a normal looking Euro. I'll ride the reasonable Euro Everytime.
Posted on 12/26/17 at 1:42 pm to doublecutter
quote:Weather Underground says an overnight low of 22 on 1/1.
The AccuWeather app on my phone is showing a low of 17 on 1/1/2018.
And I did a search of your avatar pic. What a sick frick that guy is.
Posted on 12/26/17 at 1:46 pm to Duke
The 12z Euro is still suggesting some cold (for southern LA) temps, but not nearly as significant as the GFS. It also has the relatively colder period wrapped up by the morning of January 4th.
Posted on 12/26/17 at 1:49 pm to slackster
quote:
The 12z Euro is still suggesting some cold (for southern LA) temps, but not nearly as significant as the GFS. It also has the relatively colder period wrapped up by the morning of January 4th.
Which is pretty much what you'd expect for down here. Hard to argue that scenario until there's more support for the GFS deep freeze.
Posted on 12/26/17 at 1:50 pm to Duke
quote:
Certainly. The Euro showed your normal cold snap down here for the new year. An anomaly on the GFS, despite it's consistency, vs a normal looking Euro. I'll ride the reasonable Euro Everytime.
Yea, if the GFS was showing slightly colder than the Euro then no problems for the NWS. However, I'm sure there is some fretting going on given the time range and that it's over a holiday. The kind of cold the GFS is showing is historic and destructive. Anyone that travels without prepping before leaving probably returns to busted pipes. It will be interesting to watch this play out. Hopefully, one model folds (cough cough GFS) in the next day or so to clear things up.
Posted on 12/26/17 at 1:50 pm to Duke
Has Peej made a prediction?
Posted on 12/26/17 at 1:58 pm to doublecutter
Geez... they just updated the accuweather forecast for Germantown, TN on Monday... high of 17 and low of 2.
Just... uh... no?
If I wanted Alaska weather, I'd move to Alaska.
Just... uh... no?
If I wanted Alaska weather, I'd move to Alaska.
This post was edited on 12/26/17 at 1:59 pm
Posted on 12/26/17 at 2:01 pm to rds dc
quote:
However, I'm sure there is some fretting going on given the time range and that it's over a holiday. The kind of cold the GFS is showing is historic and destructive.
LIX is mentioning the GFS cold already, but it reads as if they are very skeptical of the solution. GFS soln has a 1042 high over the Delta, with the EURO throwing the strong artic high over the Great Lakes. That's a hell of a difference.
So at least the possibility is already being noted by the NWS down here, but it reads as if they expect the GFS to come into line with the more reasonable solutions from the CMC and Euro.
ETA: the CMC at 12z did come in much colder and closer to GFS.
This post was edited on 12/26/17 at 2:02 pm
Posted on 12/26/17 at 2:07 pm to doublecutter
Why????
Posted on 12/26/17 at 2:11 pm to dukke v
Do you really not know why?
Posted on 12/26/17 at 2:12 pm to wallowinit
Somebody is about to get PUNKOLA'd up in this mfer
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