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Posted on 1/13/15 at 12:21 pm to CocomoLSU
quote:
ETA: and threads like this are why shows like Let's Make and Deal and Deal or No Deal are successful.
Are you saying they wouldn't be successful if people always switched at the end? I still think they would.
Posted on 1/13/15 at 12:25 pm to lsu480
Sheesh. To repeat people. If you played the game 1000 times and switched EVERY time, you'll win 2/3 of the time. If you stood pat, you'd win 1/3 of the time. Okay the shite in your head!!
You'll pick correct with your original pick 1/3 of the time meaning you lose Eden you switch. You'll pick incorrect initially 2/3 of the time and you will ALWAYS win when you switch in those cases
You'll pick correct with your original pick 1/3 of the time meaning you lose Eden you switch. You'll pick incorrect initially 2/3 of the time and you will ALWAYS win when you switch in those cases
Posted on 1/13/15 at 12:33 pm to ShortyRob
quote:
If you played the game 1000 times and switched EVERY time, you'll win 2/3 of the time. If you stood pat, you'd win 1/3 of the time.
Well, that's not true.
You should, on average, win at those rates. But probabilities aren't guaranteed.
Posted on 1/13/15 at 12:34 pm to lsu480
quote:
Are you saying they wouldn't be successful if people always switched at the end?
No.
Just that shows like that that use simple forms of statistics are successful, and people like to stick to their guns more times than not (read an article about that a while back...possibly last time this thread popped up, about how people hate to switch because they feel attached to their original pick).
Posted on 1/13/15 at 12:36 pm to CocomoLSU
quote:
(read an article about that a while back...possibly last time this thread popped up, about how people hate to switch because they feel attached to their original pick).
Well, on Deal Or No Deal, if they were to somehow make it to the last two cases, their pick and one on the board, and one had a penny and one had a million... the odds are 50/50.
So why not stick with your case?
(I mean, if you don't take the deal... the smart move is obviously to take the deal.)
Posted on 1/13/15 at 12:55 pm to LSUBoo
quote:
Well, on Deal Or No Deal, if they were to somehow make it to the last two cases, their pick and one on the board, and one had a penny and one had a million... the odds are 50/50.
So why not stick with your case?
Here we go again!
I know it sounds crazy, it really does, but the odds are not 50/50 and you should always switch. To explain it simply when you first picked your case the odds of it having a million were 1 in 30, by switching you increase your odds to 1 in 2. That is at least how I understand it.
This post was edited on 1/13/15 at 12:57 pm
Posted on 1/13/15 at 1:02 pm to lsu480
quote:I will never believe you have an advantage by switching. NEVER!
Here we go again! I know it sounds crazy, it really does, but the odds are not 50/50 and you should always switch.
To explain it simply when you first picked your case the odds of it having a million were 1 in 30, by switching you increase your odds to 1 in 2. That is at least how I understand it.
Posted on 1/13/15 at 1:06 pm to link
I know the math is correct, I just don't believe it.
Posted on 1/13/15 at 1:13 pm to lsu480
quote:
Here we go again! I know it sounds crazy, it really does, but the odds are not 50/50 and you should always switch.
To explain it simply when you first picked your case the odds of it having a million were 1 in 30, by switching you increase your odds to 1 in 2. That is at least how I understand it.
You're wrong. At least in terms of Deal Or No Deal, because the cases are randomly removed. (You'd be right if it was the Monty Hall problem...)
Posted on 1/13/15 at 1:17 pm to The Easter Bunny
quote:
God dammit, dude. Do a fricking experiment at your house with two red cards and a black card and keep track of how many times you win switching vs not.
This doesn't help.
Posted on 1/13/15 at 1:31 pm to LSUBoo
quote:
Well, on Deal Or No Deal, if they were to somehow make it to the last two cases, their pick and one on the board, and one had a penny and one had a million... the odds are 50/50.
So why not stick with your case?
(I mean, if you don't take the deal... the smart move is obviously to take the deal.)
Right. I just mean that they use probability to determine the amounts that they offer the people on DoND. shite like that.
Posted on 1/13/15 at 1:36 pm to CocomoLSU
IDFK, this is one math concept I just cannot grasp.
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