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re: Annual Monty Hall Game Show Thread 2015
Posted on 1/13/15 at 10:30 am to goldenbadger08
Posted on 1/13/15 at 10:30 am to goldenbadger08
quote:
It's easier to understand if you use bigger numbers.. If you are given 100 doors, you pick #1 and Monty opens 98 of them leaving, your #1 and #63 you're obviously better off if you switch.
Yep. Apparently though, a few in this thread can't grasp it still.
Oh well. I'd act surprised but, I'm not.
0
Posted on 1/13/15 at 10:30 am to Thib-a-doe Tiger
Dude I think you are right on.
Let's assume there's 500 million doors, and you picked 1 out of 500 million.
Now Monty opens 499,999,998 doors and leaves you with 2. Do you switch or stick to your guns that you picked the 1 out of 500 million doors that was correct?
I think you are probably right it's 50/50 either way.
Let's assume there's 500 million doors, and you picked 1 out of 500 million.
Now Monty opens 499,999,998 doors and leaves you with 2. Do you switch or stick to your guns that you picked the 1 out of 500 million doors that was correct?
I think you are probably right it's 50/50 either way.
Posted on 1/13/15 at 10:32 am to link
quote:
However, the problem is always described by asking what the odds are of choosing the car once one door is eliminated (and is always a goat). That IS a new game, and the probabilities are 50/50. If mathematicians don't like the fact that people perceive it correctly to be a new game, that is fine, they can continue to run it all together as one multi-stage probability exercise. But that is mere slight of hand, not math.
I agree. The fact is that there's a car behind one of the doors. Once all others have been eliminated, it's a coin flip
Posted on 1/13/15 at 10:32 am to link
quote:Well um, that's why they call it the MONTE HALL problem!!!
In your explanation, you are absolutely correct--but only because you consider it all one game.
So, the rest of your post is a waste.
quote:
If mathematicians don't like the fact that people perceive it correctly to be a new game,
If there were 100 doors and you picked door 4, then Monte opened all other doors except for door 12, you'd consider that a TOTALLY new game?
Well then. You're a boob.
Posted on 1/13/15 at 10:33 am to Thib-a-doe Tiger
quote:
I agree. The fact is that there's a car behind one of the doors. Once all others have been eliminated, it's a coin flip
Same if there were 500 million doors. After you pick one, then Monte opens the rest, totally 50/50!!!!
Posted on 1/13/15 at 10:36 am to ShortyRob
Two things can happen when initially picking door:
1) you pick winning door (33%)
2) you pick a losing door (66%)
Here is what Monty does in each scenario:
1) reveals one of the two doors you didn't pick. If you switch, you will always lose in this scenario which will occur 33% of time as stated above
2) you've picked a losing door, Monty will not open that door - he has two other doors to open: a winning door and a losing door. He can't reveal the winning door, so he must reveal the losing door. That means the unrevealed/unopened door is the winning door. If you switch in this scenario, you always win. This scenario will occur 66.6% of time.
In short, always switch and pray you picked a losing door initially
1) you pick winning door (33%)
2) you pick a losing door (66%)
Here is what Monty does in each scenario:
1) reveals one of the two doors you didn't pick. If you switch, you will always lose in this scenario which will occur 33% of time as stated above
2) you've picked a losing door, Monty will not open that door - he has two other doors to open: a winning door and a losing door. He can't reveal the winning door, so he must reveal the losing door. That means the unrevealed/unopened door is the winning door. If you switch in this scenario, you always win. This scenario will occur 66.6% of time.
In short, always switch and pray you picked a losing door initially
Posted on 1/13/15 at 10:37 am to ShortyRob
I have a better idea.
Take any two doors, where you know that there is a car behind one and a goat behind the other. Pick one. Switch or don't switch, I don't care. Record your results over 100 tries. (Hint: if you flip a coin this will be the same, and easier).
The point is: If you accept carrying the initial 3-door probabilities forward, the mathematical proofs are correct. But that is a lie; the problem has been changed to eliminate one non-car door. That is what people intuitively understand, and why they say that it is a 50/50 shot at that point.
Take any two doors, where you know that there is a car behind one and a goat behind the other. Pick one. Switch or don't switch, I don't care. Record your results over 100 tries. (Hint: if you flip a coin this will be the same, and easier).
The point is: If you accept carrying the initial 3-door probabilities forward, the mathematical proofs are correct. But that is a lie; the problem has been changed to eliminate one non-car door. That is what people intuitively understand, and why they say that it is a 50/50 shot at that point.
Posted on 1/13/15 at 10:37 am to The Boob
quote:
Well then. You're a boob.
quote:
The Boob
I chuckled.
Posted on 1/13/15 at 10:39 am to ShortyRob
You are taking it to absurd lengths with 500 million doors.
If you picked 1 of 3 doors, you have a 33% chance of being correct.
Once one door is eliminated, there is a goat behind one door and a car behind the other. There is now a 50% chance you have picked the correct door, no?
If you picked 1 of 3 doors, you have a 33% chance of being correct.
Once one door is eliminated, there is a goat behind one door and a car behind the other. There is now a 50% chance you have picked the correct door, no?
Posted on 1/13/15 at 10:39 am to The Boob
quote:
In short, always switch and pray you picked a losing door initially
Yep.
The reason I use the "more doors" examples is to demonstrate that basically, the only reason people have any trouble with this problem is that there are only 3 doors.
More doors simply demonstrates the necessity of switching and with each increase in doors, the more certain switching wins becomes.
If there were 100 doors and you picked 1, then Monty opened 98, damned good chance you win.
If there were 100,000 doors and you picked 1, it's almost a statistical certainty switching wins.
If there were 1 BILLION doors and you picked one then opened all but one.......
Anyone saying that after he opens them, the remaining two are 50/50 are flat out not comprehending the Monte Hall situation.
Posted on 1/13/15 at 10:40 am to link
Decent troll, link 
Posted on 1/13/15 at 10:41 am to link
quote:
Take any two doors, where you know that there is a car behind one and a goat behind the other. Pick one. Switch or don't switch, I don't care. Record your results over 100 tries. (Hint: if you flip a coin this will be the same, and easier).
quote:LOL. I mean really, you don't understand the MONTE HALL aspect of the problem.
The point is: If you accept carrying the initial 3-door probabilities forward, the mathematical proofs are correct. But that is a lie; the problem has been changed to eliminate one non-car door. That is what people intuitively understand, and why they say that it is a 50/50 shot at that point.
What if there were 1000 doors? You don't think switching improves your odds? Then you're stupid. Just plain fricking stupid.
Posted on 1/13/15 at 10:41 am to Thib-a-doe Tiger
quote:
If you picked 1 of 3 doors, you have a 33% chance of being correct.
Once one door is eliminated, there is a goat behind one door and a car behind the other. There is now a 50% chance you have picked the correct door, no?
No, there's still a 33% chance that you picked the correct door.
Knowingly eliminating one wrong answer doesn't change your initial odds at all.
If the host randomly picked one of the other doors and it was a wrong answer, then your odds change to 50%.
Posted on 1/13/15 at 10:43 am to link
quote:
The point is: If you accept carrying the initial 3-door probabilities forward, the mathematical proofs are correct. But that is a lie; the problem has been changed to eliminate one non-car door. That is what people intuitively understand, and why they say that it is a 50/50 shot at that point.
The question is not "what is the probability of choosing a correct door from two choices" but rather "should you switch doors from your initial choice after you gain more information." It's one game with two sections
Posted on 1/13/15 at 10:44 am to LSUBoo
quote:
Knowingly eliminating one wrong answer doesn't change your initial odds at all.
If the host randomly picked one of the other doors and it was a wrong answer, then your odds change to 50%.
Thank you. The KNOWINGLY part is important.
If Monte randomly picked, then SOMETIMES, he'd open the winning door. But he will NEVER pick the winning door, hence, his choice is PART of the next phase of the game.
That's why looking at it using MORE doors helps. Then, it's easy to see why switching improves the odds because, well, switching would help if there were 1000 doors.
Well, I mean, unless the morons in this thread are asserting that if they picked 1 door, then Monte opened 998, that sticking with their original pick would result in a win 50% of the time........
Posted on 1/13/15 at 10:45 am to ShortyRob
quote:
Well, I mean, unless the morons in this thread are asserting that if they picked 1 door, then Monte opened 998, that sticking with their original pick would result in a win 50% of the time.......
I'm pretty sure link is just trolling, because he's not a moron.
Others though...
Posted on 1/13/15 at 10:46 am to ShortyRob
I want to know from the 50/50 guys in this thread.
If there were 10 doors and you picked 1, then Monty opened 8, are you people REALLY asserting that if you played that out 100 times, sticking with your original pick would result in wins 50% of the time?
Cmon guys. Think!!!
If there were 10 doors and you picked 1, then Monty opened 8, are you people REALLY asserting that if you played that out 100 times, sticking with your original pick would result in wins 50% of the time?
Cmon guys. Think!!!
Posted on 1/13/15 at 10:46 am to ShortyRob
what about this
-make the initial pick
-host removes 1/3 of the choices
-then they mix up and randomize the remaining 2 choices. what are the odds you pick the car or goat?
-make the initial pick
-host removes 1/3 of the choices
-then they mix up and randomize the remaining 2 choices. what are the odds you pick the car or goat?
Posted on 1/13/15 at 10:46 am to LSUBoo
quote:Forgive me. I don't know him. I'll take your word for it.
I'm pretty sure link is just trolling, because he's not a moron.
Posted on 1/13/15 at 10:47 am to ShortyRob
By taking it to 1000 doors you change the probability of picking the correct door the first time drastically.
Or even 10 doors
Or even 10 doors
This post was edited on 1/13/15 at 10:48 am
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