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Started By
Message
re: America's oil industry is 'dead in the water'
Posted on 4/27/16 at 7:57 pm to MadtownTiger
Posted on 4/27/16 at 7:57 pm to MadtownTiger
Madtown is a smart poster. Well said.
0
Posted on 4/27/16 at 7:58 pm to Bunk Moreland
quote:
The one thing I don't understand, though, is the extent to which the Goldman Sachs and hedge funds of the world can manipulate markets with paper. I don't think it's an issue now, but some people blamed them for them for the run-up to $147 oil
They manipulate the players of the game by allowing companies to over-leverage themselves, why do you think so many $100MM companies are now bankrupt. Because they had $20MM in assets and $200MM in debt. The $147 was people really wanting to believe that producing at $70brl in the TMS was worth it.
Posted on 4/27/16 at 7:59 pm to The First Cut
quote:
domestic firms?
Really starting to get into these.
Would love to visit Aspen and Cannes one day.
Vivo cinema!
Posted on 4/27/16 at 8:02 pm to The First Cut
quote:
we have stretegic reserves..We simply cannot allow ourselves to be dependent on foreign oil, especially when the dependency is satisfied by nations increasingly hostile to us.
Since we still have the capability to produce and an abundance in reserves I wouldn't say we are dependent on foreign oil. Simply buying it at a devalued price compared the the local markets. Thats like saying we should fear the Chinese when they put a hold on the t-shirts we desire most.
Posted on 4/27/16 at 8:03 pm to Lou Pai
quote:
US is now going to function as a swing producer.
Meh
The mere existence of that Doha meeting was a pretty good of indicator of who the "swing producer" (still) is. Not to mention that the U.S. is still a net exporter, by far, and among the world's largest, and OPEC countries collectively have ridiculous amounts of reserves and spare capacity.
Posted on 4/27/16 at 8:05 pm to Hickok
Oil is vital to national defense and reserves are finite. If you think t-shirts are a comfortable comparison...well, good day to ya
Posted on 4/27/16 at 8:06 pm to Major Dutch Schaefer
Really? T Boone says oil is dead? The same guy who made his money off of oil and now is heavily divested in wind and solar power? This is like Buffet saying pipelines are dead and we should be transporting everything by rail.
Posted on 4/27/16 at 8:11 pm to The First Cut
quote:
Why are you celebrating the return to the days of dependence of foreign oil? Do you realize what will happen when demand exceeds the reduced supply once provided by domestic firms?
What a stupid thing to say.
We can still extract oil out of the ground if we want to.
Posted on 4/27/16 at 8:13 pm to mattz1122
quote:
The mere existence of that Doha meeting was a pretty good of indicator of who the "swing producer" (still) is.
And what happened as a result of the meeting?
quote:
Not to mention that the U.S. is still a net exporter, by far,
I think you mean importer here. But an important thing to realize is the effect the US has on consumption. Not to mention the fact that one of the two main reasons oil plummeted is because seemingly overnight, two fields sprang up producing in excess of 1mmbpd each.
As for the reason we are seeing an uptick in oil, it's not so much supply/demand fundamentals, although the former is improving moderately right now. It's the weakening dollar.
This post was edited on 4/27/16 at 8:15 pm
Posted on 4/27/16 at 8:14 pm to Major Dutch Schaefer
Propaganda- fracking earthquakes in Oklahoma , say no more
Posted on 4/27/16 at 8:15 pm to Hickok
Another couple of things helping the prices now are, forcasted depletions in the stockpile. API estimated that last week we lost a million barrels out of stock, which in a sense is a droplet but since it registered a depletion for the first time in a while, we may have crossed the threshold of usage vs production. And as I said earlier turnover and summer will only dry up usage.
Oil and Gas J.
Like someone else said China is coming back around, not to the degree they were 7-8 years ago but they are taking in boat loads of oil. And since the U.S. lifted the export ban, we will be delivering out of country crude and not contributing everything to stock.
But to the guy talking about the TMS, that play will take a while if it ever comes back. Mid-LA and MS will be available due to the TMS being around 12,500 feet. Still kind of expensive for a shale though it's probably doable around 60 with the new ways to h. drill and frac. The Florida parishes and lower MS will be tougher as the TMS is around 15000 feet. Drilling deep, kicking off and drilling long will be very expensive no matter where your at. TMS is gonna be dead for another decade at least.
Oil and Gas J.
Like someone else said China is coming back around, not to the degree they were 7-8 years ago but they are taking in boat loads of oil. And since the U.S. lifted the export ban, we will be delivering out of country crude and not contributing everything to stock.
But to the guy talking about the TMS, that play will take a while if it ever comes back. Mid-LA and MS will be available due to the TMS being around 12,500 feet. Still kind of expensive for a shale though it's probably doable around 60 with the new ways to h. drill and frac. The Florida parishes and lower MS will be tougher as the TMS is around 15000 feet. Drilling deep, kicking off and drilling long will be very expensive no matter where your at. TMS is gonna be dead for another decade at least.
This post was edited on 4/27/16 at 8:18 pm
Posted on 4/27/16 at 8:16 pm to AjaxFury
Gas jumped over 30 cents around here today. I would love to see it drop more than 2 cents in a day. Funny how it jumps but slowly drops
Posted on 4/27/16 at 8:19 pm to Lou Pai
quote:
And what happened as a result of the meeting?
Which only further proves my point. And now there could be an Iran-Saudi Arabia pissing match.
The point of the meeting was to get a group almost entirely comprising OPEC members to agree to freeze their current production levels to stabilize the price of oil. Sounds like a swing producer to me.
quote:
I think you mean importer here. But an important thing to realize is the effect the US has on consumption. Not to mention the fact that seemingly overnight, two fields sprang up producing in excess of 1mmbpd each.
Meant importer. My bad. The other aspect is that demand in China is falling, which isn't helping the world market.
Posted on 4/27/16 at 8:19 pm to Lou Pai
quote:
As for the reason we are seeing an uptick in oil, it's not so much supply/demand fundamentals, although the former is improving moderately right now. It's the weakening dollar.
Yup, unfortunately.
Posted on 4/27/16 at 8:24 pm to ipodking
Yea cause alternative energy does great when oil is cheap
Posted on 4/27/16 at 8:24 pm to mattz1122
The end result is that the strength of OPEC is very questionable and weak right now. The reason I am referring to US shale onshore as the swing producer is because it's remarkably agile and has a shorter lead time/sensitivity vs NOCs in the ME and Majors sanctioning projects offshore. The concept I'm referring to has actually become something of a trite buzz word.
Demand growth is slowing due to a slowdown in industrial activity but Chinese policymakers are taking steps to ameliorate that. There is hope that India is the next man up, but time will tell.
quote:
Meant importer. My bad. The other aspect is that demand in China is falling, which isn't helping the world market.
Demand growth is slowing due to a slowdown in industrial activity but Chinese policymakers are taking steps to ameliorate that. There is hope that India is the next man up, but time will tell.
This post was edited on 4/27/16 at 8:26 pm
Posted on 4/27/16 at 8:24 pm to lsuoilengr
quote:
Nothin burns like hydrocarbons baw...
I want to keep going faster and farther while pulling my bay boat or car trailer in cool, air-conditioned comfort. At the end of my 450 mi. range, I want to stop for 10 minutes and be on my way.
Lemme know when them fancy 'lectric vee-hickles can do such.
Until then I will rely on good old LSU PETE's to take care of bidness.
Posted on 4/27/16 at 8:26 pm to mattz1122
quote:
The point of the meeting was to get a group almost entirely comprising OPEC members to agree to freeze their current production levels to stabilize the price of oil. Sounds like a swing producer to me.
Iran was/is never going to agree to this because their January levels are suppressed coming out of the sanctions.
Plus SA and Russia were on board with this because January was a 12-month high in production for them. So they essentially we will freeze output at the highest rate we have done in over a year. I don't believe they have surpassed that rate since.
So this meeting means absolutely nothing other than trying to screw Iran. Iran also doesn't necessarily have the production infrastructure to surpass much passed 2 MMbl/d at this point. They have had no investments in about a decade.
Posted on 4/27/16 at 8:27 pm to Lou Pai
quote:
There is hope that India is the next man up, but time will tell.
This^^^ would be the second coming of $80 plus oil.
Posted on 4/27/16 at 8:34 pm to The First Cut
quote:
Oil is vital to national defense and reserves are finite. If you think t-shirts are a comfortable comparison...well, good day to ya
It is vital to our national defense and yes our abundant reserves are finite. What I am saying is that sans an all out war, it is not necessary to plunge into every hole that we can drill at an outstanding cost to the consumers. Surely technology will improve and US production will become more economical in the future, but until then whats wrong with buying a commodity at the cheapest price?
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