re: America's oil industry is 'dead in the water'

No doubt the industry is really hurting with more uncertainty ahead but Pickens is not who to listen to on the oil industry. He's living off his success from a long time ago.

Not exactly sure what the red curve is showing

Hmm, I'll take a guess and assume it's consumption of psychedelics, based on the defined peak in the '70s

We've cut cost of unconventional wells in almost half since this shite storm. They have done more to drill it cheaper in the last year than the 60 years since fracking was introduced.

The oil market will be fine. The market always determines that.

Those steep declines help the case for them being a swing producer . DUC inventories are also very readily available to make a quick decision on production.

Not really. Shale production has been declining for a year and yet the price of oil is still much lower than it was a year ago.

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Demand will catch up to supply and that supply will overwhelmingly be available from markets that are part of a cartel. Most of these states use the proceeds to fund terror efforts against us. So they stick it to us with inflated pricing propped up by collusion and then use the money to strike us. We started producing more and taking market share from the cartel, lessening its ability for nefarious works. Now Americans are celebrating the return to dependence on the Middle East. I don't get it, other than sheer ignorance.

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At which point domestic oil will become viable again because of the raise in price, and we will return back towards using it again or at that point alternative energy sources will have become more viable, and they will take share of the market. The only difference being that we will have enjoyed a period of cheaper energy right now.

The only reason to take your position is if you currently in the domestic oil business, you are suffering right now, and you want economic protection. This sort of protection, from a theoretical economic position at least, has proven to be worse for everyone in the economy other than those being protected. Basically what you are saying is that you want entitlements. It's crony capitalism. Let me guess that you are a "small government conservative."

It is not a bad thing for the economy as a whole to pay less for energy. It is a bad thing for you individuals who are in the industry and the state of Louisiana which allowed itself to become too dependent on oil and gas proceeds.

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And yet it seems a shale producer per day is filing Chapter 11.

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Because of the amount of wells that were drilled, investments were made on $100/bbl, where it was just a gold rush to drill every sq.ft of available space. Once the price dropped, these companies do not have the cash flow to repay their debts.

Shale, geologically speaking, is a very easy rock to drill. Producing it is harder, but finding oil is easy. Shales are low-depositional typically deep water deposits. Eagle Ford was laid during the Cretaceous when the ocean stretched from the arctic across the US.

What this all means is that you don't necessarily have to perform a seismic survey to find the oil. So that cuts costs. Since well logs are readily available, you can literally create your own well plan with public data. Since shales do not have an extensive drainage area because of the rock, you can literally just steer your wells between previously/currently producing wells.

The past decade of shale drilling is similar to the gold rush. Everybody trying to make an easy dollar. The companies who drilled without doing the geology and the well planning and drilled low yield horizontal wells are going bankrupt. The ones that drilled the high yield wells and did everything right and played conservatively while the market was up are the ones still around and will probably weather the storm.

Looking at from just a pricing standpoint is a bit short sighted. From a supply perspective, the market is coming into balance with demand. LINK

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standpoint is a bit short sighted. From a supply perspective, the market is coming into balance with demand. LINK

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This^^^

The big reason was for the last several months the reduced demand from India and China was concerning. That demand has steadily gone up as they transition into a more advanced nation.

Well not really, since companies indirectly involved industrially are hurting as well. Consumer spending hasn't seen the pickup economists have been hoping for, probably because deflation across the board has been in place for other commodities for quite a while. But maybe you know something Yellen and the FOMC doesn't, genius.