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Posted on 10/12/14 at 10:51 pm to artompkins
When this becomes a legit crisis, you are correct.
I have no faith in them efficiently defusing the situation.
But there isn't a crisis now, and no real indicators of an impending one either, despite the fear mongering.
And the government isn't running anything....they are just giving local authorizes support.
So I don't see your point.
Folks, the likeliest outcome of this (and I am speaking of in general, with more Patient Zeros coming from Africa), are less than 50 cases of Ebola and fewer than 10 fatalities. It's serious and deserves attention from health care workers, but it's no case of impending doom.
I have no faith in them efficiently defusing the situation.
But there isn't a crisis now, and no real indicators of an impending one either, despite the fear mongering.
And the government isn't running anything....they are just giving local authorizes support.
So I don't see your point.
Folks, the likeliest outcome of this (and I am speaking of in general, with more Patient Zeros coming from Africa), are less than 50 cases of Ebola and fewer than 10 fatalities. It's serious and deserves attention from health care workers, but it's no case of impending doom.
Posted on 10/12/14 at 10:52 pm to Smalls
quote:
So, what's the alternative?
The alternative is to NOT have blind faith, and to NOT neccesarily believe every word that our government tells us.
Posted on 10/12/14 at 10:53 pm to Grassy1
My point is that we have to trust that the government will be able to handle it. If not, there's nothing you or I can do about it anyway.
Posted on 10/12/14 at 10:54 pm to Volvagia
Thanks... I fear no impending doom.
I'm 50 and live with leukemia, I stare at death all the time and don't fear it (most of the time.)
I hope you're right about the severity of the situation.
I'm 50 and live with leukemia, I stare at death all the time and don't fear it (most of the time.)
I hope you're right about the severity of the situation.
Posted on 10/12/14 at 10:55 pm to Volvagia
The crisis won't be from ebola IMO. It will be from the mass hysteria caused by ebola. Or cases in South America that cause a huge influx on even more immigrants. Or a combination of both. Seriously effecting our economy.
Posted on 10/12/14 at 10:56 pm to Grassy1
Eh....that's not really how it works, and one patient with one team of healthcare workers and one (who broke protocol somehow) contracting the disease isn't enough info to really say anything. Not statistically significant.
It'd be better to look at healthcare workers and their contraction rate in the endemic areas. Which I think the deaths of healthcare workers thus far from this outbreak was in the 200's. Total infections of health professionals in the 500's. I read this a few days ago so I can't remember exactly.
The stats were kind of sobering for me. A significant number of people have died just trying to care for the sick.
It'd be better to look at healthcare workers and their contraction rate in the endemic areas. Which I think the deaths of healthcare workers thus far from this outbreak was in the 200's. Total infections of health professionals in the 500's. I read this a few days ago so I can't remember exactly.
The stats were kind of sobering for me. A significant number of people have died just trying to care for the sick.
Posted on 10/12/14 at 10:57 pm to Grassy1
That doesn't make any sense.
At all.
There isn't a comparison in your factoring.
So if a virus typically infects 20 people for every one infected, and we hold it to one....
It's still a 1:1 ratio and a failure according to you.
I don't agree with your reasoning to the point, but if you insist on making it, you have to look at the R(0) for this strain of Ebola (average people infected by each infected person).
Measles is like 18. AIDS is like 4.
Ebola in Africa is around 2.
So your point is that the West, with preparation, only reduced the infection ratio by 50%. (As of now....obviously in the coming days the potential is there for another worker coming down with it.)
At all.
There isn't a comparison in your factoring.
So if a virus typically infects 20 people for every one infected, and we hold it to one....
It's still a 1:1 ratio and a failure according to you.
I don't agree with your reasoning to the point, but if you insist on making it, you have to look at the R(0) for this strain of Ebola (average people infected by each infected person).
Measles is like 18. AIDS is like 4.
Ebola in Africa is around 2.
So your point is that the West, with preparation, only reduced the infection ratio by 50%. (As of now....obviously in the coming days the potential is there for another worker coming down with it.)
Posted on 10/12/14 at 10:57 pm to Volvagia
quote:
Folks, the likeliest outcome of this (and I am speaking of in general, with more Patient Zeros coming from Africa), are less than 50 cases of Ebola and fewer than 10 fatalities. It's serious and deserves attention from health care workers, but it's no case of impending doom.
I agree. As I said earlier I'm more concerned with the enterovirus D68 outbreak.
Posted on 10/12/14 at 11:02 pm to Boats n Hose
I apologize if this was brought up already. When Duncan first went to the ER, he had a CT scan. I would think anyone that did a CT scan afterwards would have a possibility of getting infected with Ebola?
Posted on 10/12/14 at 11:07 pm to lsugal121212
They're probably part of the 48.
Posted on 10/12/14 at 11:08 pm to lsugal121212
Eh. If he sweated on it and was contagious at the time, maybe. But they put a sheet on it they change between patients and wipe it down (at least when I was working at a hospital that's what they did).
All things considered though, the chance is incredibly slim if not effectively zero. IMO.
All things considered though, the chance is incredibly slim if not effectively zero. IMO.
Posted on 10/12/14 at 11:08 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
I refuse to believe that a hospital that can't even make sure their employees follow proper protocol is that efficient.
I'm willing to cut a lot of slack on this front.
Saying that someone broke protocol for PPE in something like this doesn't mean the person was by default negligently careless.
Unless she was a nurse trained for usage in isolation wards, it's understandable how she could have fricked up.
Not excusing her mistake.
But employing the techniques required for this isn't something you are told. It takes practice. And a touch of OCD probably can't hurt.
Your day to day mannerisms cannot be employed at all, and conscious thought must be maintained on your current task at all times. One momentary lapse when you are tired after working a double is all it takes with the level of PPE they were using, even of you were flawless the other times.
Posted on 10/12/14 at 11:12 pm to Volvagia
Well I'm putting my faith in you and Boats n Hose. I can now sleep peacefully until further notice
This post was edited on 10/12/14 at 11:12 pm
Posted on 10/12/14 at 11:15 pm to tunechi
No worries my friend. Stay away from Africa, trying to avoid contact with people showing flu-like symptoms is a good rule of thumb regardless. Ain't no thang but a chicken wang.
Posted on 10/12/14 at 11:15 pm to Boats n Hose
Thanks for commenting
Posted on 10/12/14 at 11:15 pm to lsugal121212
What Boat said.
While it is theoretically possible for Enola to be in sweat, you would probably have to lick the CR scan bed to stand a major risk.
Or immediately touch the surface and rub your eyes.
And that is ignoring sanitary provisions that Boat mentioned.
You have to consider, the nurses probably had to deal with some pretty disgusting things that are the biological equivilant of glowing nuclear waste in their treatment of Duncan.
End stage Ebola is not for the faint of heart.
While it is theoretically possible for Enola to be in sweat, you would probably have to lick the CR scan bed to stand a major risk.
Or immediately touch the surface and rub your eyes.
And that is ignoring sanitary provisions that Boat mentioned.
You have to consider, the nurses probably had to deal with some pretty disgusting things that are the biological equivilant of glowing nuclear waste in their treatment of Duncan.
End stage Ebola is not for the faint of heart.
Posted on 10/12/14 at 11:16 pm to Boats n Hose
My only wish is that ground zero with this mess on US soil was just a few farther states away. But alas
Posted on 10/12/14 at 11:16 pm to diddydirtyAubie
Tm7 destroyed auburn when he played
Posted on 10/12/14 at 11:25 pm to lsugal121212
The problem is the initial symptomology is pretty generic. Basically every virus causes a fever. You get a shite-ton of them coming into the ER's, once they start feeling worse.
Look at a lot of the potential meningitis/encephalitis cases we get here, West Nile etc. Fever, headache, stiff neck. You just don't know what you're dealing with, a lot of the time, as a healthcare worker. A lot of times you don't get the isolation protocols started until after the initial contact and assessment.
So now, we got Flu season coming too. More fevers and headaches. Different route of transmission. More potential for misdiagnosis.
Of course, you'd be remiss if you ignore the patient's actual mental status. I've seen lots of indigent patients (and families) who don't understand the necessity of isolation, and try to break it. I've had to escort droplet-precaution (potential TB) patients back into their rooms while holding my breath and reaching for the mask, because they want to go smoke outside. They bitch about their rights and how they're being imprisoned. I've been fortunate enough that so far my PPD still comes back negative, but one of my buddies had to get the full prophylactic treatment after he came back positive.
If Ebola hits one of these population groups and makes a foothold, it will get ugly.
Look at a lot of the potential meningitis/encephalitis cases we get here, West Nile etc. Fever, headache, stiff neck. You just don't know what you're dealing with, a lot of the time, as a healthcare worker. A lot of times you don't get the isolation protocols started until after the initial contact and assessment.
So now, we got Flu season coming too. More fevers and headaches. Different route of transmission. More potential for misdiagnosis.
Of course, you'd be remiss if you ignore the patient's actual mental status. I've seen lots of indigent patients (and families) who don't understand the necessity of isolation, and try to break it. I've had to escort droplet-precaution (potential TB) patients back into their rooms while holding my breath and reaching for the mask, because they want to go smoke outside. They bitch about their rights and how they're being imprisoned. I've been fortunate enough that so far my PPD still comes back negative, but one of my buddies had to get the full prophylactic treatment after he came back positive.
If Ebola hits one of these population groups and makes a foothold, it will get ugly.
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