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re: 8 confirmed Tornadoes last Wednesday from Slidell to Kiln, Mississippi

Posted on 4/18/24 at 7:22 am to
Posted by The Mick
Member since Oct 2010
43088 posts
Posted on 4/18/24 at 7:22 am to
When I was a kid/ young adult, I don't ever recall a tornado in Louisiana. Maybe we just hear more about them now? It was always Kansas or Oklahoma etc... WTF happened.




This post was edited on 4/18/24 at 7:25 am
Posted by dewster
Chicago
Member since Aug 2006
25337 posts
Posted on 4/18/24 at 7:27 am to
There were two confirmed tornadoes near Baton Rouge last week.

One near New Roads, and another just north of St. Francisville near the high school. Both featured winds around 100-110 mph.
Posted by dewster
Chicago
Member since Aug 2006
25337 posts
Posted on 4/18/24 at 7:29 am to
quote:

When I was a kid/ young adult, I don't ever recall a tornado in Louisiana. Maybe we just hear more about them now? It was always Kansas or Oklahoma etc... WTF happened.



Probably hear about them more now, and our cities tend to sprawl more so homes/businesses are more likely to be hit.
Posted by Easye921
Mobile
Member since Jan 2013
2343 posts
Posted on 4/18/24 at 8:09 am to
Thank you so much.
Posted by Buckeye Backer
Columbus, Ohio
Member since Aug 2009
9240 posts
Posted on 4/18/24 at 8:22 am to
Ohio is leading the country in confirmed Tornadoes in 2024 with 38 confirmed already. We average 27 for a year...and we are already at 38 just this Spring. It has been WILD up here. There was a few more last night!



This post was edited on 4/18/24 at 8:24 am
Posted by 3deadtrolls
lafayette
Member since Jan 2014
5689 posts
Posted on 4/18/24 at 8:48 am to
quote:

Slidell


Did anyone check on Scuttlebutts?
Posted by Bo Rein 80
Wonder Lake
Member since Mar 2019
193 posts
Posted on 4/18/24 at 12:39 pm to
quote:

Looks like the Atchafalaya is the real deterrent, unless there is just a lack of data there throughout history.


Observe as storms move from west to east over southern Atchafalaya marshland. Usually diminish in intensity... my theory is methane gas
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
53819 posts
Posted on 4/18/24 at 1:33 pm to
quote:

When I was a kid/ young adult, I don't ever recall a tornado in Louisiana. Maybe we just hear more about them now? It was always Kansas or Oklahoma etc... WTF happened.


Let's look at the maps from recent decades.

The numbers at the top of each image are the total number of tornadoes for the entire country during the given timeframe. As far as I know, you can't do it by individual state.

1960-1970

1970-1980

1980-1990

1990-2000

2000-2010

2010-2020


An important note is that as radar has improved the number of confirmed tornadoes has generally gone up. The reason the first image you shared begins in 1989 is because that was the year that NEXRAD radar started coming online. By 1996 all major weather radars across the country would be upgraded to NEXRAD. There was a huge increase in confirmed tornadoes going forward because we were able to see a whole lot more on radar, giving us the ability to "find" more damage paths that could have gone unnoticed in the past.

Between 1950 and 1989, as a country, we crossed the 1,000 tornadoes a year mark only twice. Between 1990 and 2022 we topped 1,000 tornadoes a year 25 times, and never dipped below 886.

When I first started looking into it, I thought that the implementation of Dual-pol radar would have provided for the greatest jump in confirmed tornadoes, but that isn't really the case. The increase with NEXRAD was much greater.

All of that said, people should be careful when comparing modern tornado statistics to the historical record. We are just so much better now at finding and documenting every single tornado, and it isn't just due to better radar. Population growth and expansion is key, as is the growth of video technology. There are simply more people in more places and nearly all of them have some means of documenting any tornado that may drop from a storm.

So, when you see someone make a claim, especially one that touts climate change, that we are seeing way more tornadoes these days, remember that it isn't as simple as looking at the final tally at the end of a given year.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
164088 posts
Posted on 4/18/24 at 1:36 pm to
quote:

Looks like the Atchafalaya is the real deterrent, unless there is just a lack of data there throughout history.


No, it's because there's relatively no one living there and no accessible way to survey any damage through there. You have to do a damage survey to confirm a tornado.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
164088 posts
Posted on 4/18/24 at 1:40 pm to
quote:

We are just so much better now at finding and documenting every single tornado, and it isn't just due to better radar. Population growth and expansion is key, as is the growth of video technology. There are simply more people in more places and nearly all of them have some means of documenting any tornado that may drop from a storm

Right, and look at the increase in confirmed short lived, weak tornadoes. The number of blue dots increases dramatically. We are surveying and confirming way more weak tornadoes than we used to. Those tornadoes always occurred. People just never knew about them.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
53819 posts
Posted on 4/18/24 at 1:41 pm to
quote:

No, it's because there's relatively no one living there and no accessible way to survey any damage through there. You have to do a damage survey to confirm a tornado.

Drones to the rescue! Well, if anyone gives enough of a shite.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
53819 posts
Posted on 4/18/24 at 1:43 pm to
quote:

Right, and look at the increase in confirmed short lived, weak tornadoes. The number of blue dots increases dramatically. We are surveying and confirming way more weak tornadoes than we used to. Those tornadoes always occurred. People just never knew about them.

I found that hurricane-related tornadoes gave us a bump, too. They weren't included prior to 1959, and weren't always even after that.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
164088 posts
Posted on 4/18/24 at 1:43 pm to
quote:

Drones to the rescue! Well, if anyone gives enough of a shite.


Yeah, it comes down to is it worth the effort to survey a weak tornado in the swamp where no one lives. Action Jackson would say absolutely which is why the Jackson CWA is always plastered with confirmed tornadoes but other offices don't feel the same way.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
53819 posts
Posted on 4/18/24 at 1:47 pm to
quote:

Yeah, it comes down to is it worth the effort to survey a weak tornado in the swamp where no one lives.

We also have a lot of chasers doing independent "surveys". I don't have a problem with it, as long as we keep it all in perspective that if we endeavor to find every tornado that occurs the numbers will naturally inflate. That's where making comparisons to the historical record becomes almost useless.
This post was edited on 4/18/24 at 1:48 pm
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
41488 posts
Posted on 4/20/24 at 5:59 am to
04/10/24 Update:
A total of 13 tornadoes have been identified through satellite analysis combined with ground surveys.

The Labarre-Spillman, LA tornado was the largest and longest-tracked of the day spanning a mile wide at peak and 32 miles long.

This info remains preliminary.
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