- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
WR draft pick at #27 versus #58
Posted on 3/20/14 at 9:58 am
Posted on 3/20/14 at 9:58 am
Good discussion in the thread about smaller/quicker WRs vs. more big bodied types. What about the outlook of who is likely available at each spot. That is, let's weigh value into which spot might bear the greater reward.
First I did a little research... In the past ten years and average of 6.9 WRs have been selected before #58. Interestingly though, the past 5 years that avg. is 5.6 vs. 8.2 the prior 5 years. I do think there is a down trend in overall WR value. Not like how RBs are being devalued but down. WRs have one of the higher bust rates. In 2013 & 2011 only 5 & 4 WRs were taken before #58.
I count 9 WRs that deserve a solid rating to be worthy of being selected before #58-
Watkins, Evans, Cooks, Lee, Beckham, Benjamin, Matthews, Robinson, & Adams. So one, just on odds there is some chance one of them could slip to #58. Any of those would be great values.
As a backup, after those there is another pool of good WRs that might justify a #58 pick- Richardson, Moncrief, Bryant, or Landry.
At #27 a Beckham, Cooks, Benjamin, Lee, or Matthews would fall into value range. All could be fair value but not slam bang gotta take them value. I like the odds of getting a killer valued WR at #58. At worst, you can almost guarantee you will have a selction of 4 to 7 WRs that will easily be solid values.
First I did a little research... In the past ten years and average of 6.9 WRs have been selected before #58. Interestingly though, the past 5 years that avg. is 5.6 vs. 8.2 the prior 5 years. I do think there is a down trend in overall WR value. Not like how RBs are being devalued but down. WRs have one of the higher bust rates. In 2013 & 2011 only 5 & 4 WRs were taken before #58.
I count 9 WRs that deserve a solid rating to be worthy of being selected before #58-
Watkins, Evans, Cooks, Lee, Beckham, Benjamin, Matthews, Robinson, & Adams. So one, just on odds there is some chance one of them could slip to #58. Any of those would be great values.
As a backup, after those there is another pool of good WRs that might justify a #58 pick- Richardson, Moncrief, Bryant, or Landry.
At #27 a Beckham, Cooks, Benjamin, Lee, or Matthews would fall into value range. All could be fair value but not slam bang gotta take them value. I like the odds of getting a killer valued WR at #58. At worst, you can almost guarantee you will have a selction of 4 to 7 WRs that will easily be solid values.
Posted on 3/20/14 at 10:34 am to blueslover
I would like a Mosley/Shazier or CB in 1st, Moncrief in 2nd combo. You could even go back-to-back WRs in 2 and 3 as well. I love Colston and Stills, but I think you need a little more insurance behind them
Posted on 3/20/14 at 10:41 am to GeauxAggie972
The combo aspect was part of looking at this. As the draft unfolds the decision makers might have to evaluate sumpin along the lines of...
Beckham/Cooks/Benjamin #27
and
Breeland/McGill #58
OR
Fuller/Roby/Verrett #27
and
Adams/Robinson/Moncrief/Landry/Bryant #58
The quality of who you might get at those spots makes WR at #58 much more attractive IMO.
Beckham/Cooks/Benjamin #27
and
Breeland/McGill #58
OR
Fuller/Roby/Verrett #27
and
Adams/Robinson/Moncrief/Landry/Bryant #58
The quality of who you might get at those spots makes WR at #58 much more attractive IMO.
Posted on 3/20/14 at 10:42 am to GeauxAggie972
quote:
You could even go back-to-back WRs in 2 and 3 as well. I love Colston and Stills, but I think you need a little more insurance behind them
I agree. Outside of Colston, we have a combined 46 career catches from the WRs currently on our roster (46 more than the Panthers!). I'd almost be surprised if we didn't take 2 WRs this draft.
Posted on 3/20/14 at 10:57 am to blueslover
I like option 2 and you hope someone falls like Dennard, or Gilbert suffers a Pro Day injury and drops to us (a man can dream right?)
Posted on 3/20/14 at 10:57 am to blueslover
I see no reason to take a wr in first round unless thy are elite (CJ, Julio, AJ, etc)
Watkins and Evans are the only two worth looking at in the first this year. Neither will be there at 27
Draft db
Watkins and Evans are the only two worth looking at in the first this year. Neither will be there at 27
Draft db
Posted on 3/20/14 at 10:58 am to SaintLSUnAtl
quote:
I see no reason to take a wr in first round unless thy are elite (CJ, Julio, AJ, etc)
Watkins and Evans are the only two worth looking at in the first this year. Neither will be there at 27
Draft db
Agreed
Posted on 3/20/14 at 11:09 am to Isaid
that's another angle of this discussion...
for me at #27 Watkins & Evans will in no wise be available but are slam bang must picks if they were.
Lee, Beckham, Cooks, & Benjamin are in the fair value range but not table pounding Take him!
At #58 there is a high chance you could have a selection of more than one incredible value WR selection. Value-wise a Matthews or Moncrief at #58 would be A++ over Beckham or Cooks at #27 (B to C)
for me at #27 Watkins & Evans will in no wise be available but are slam bang must picks if they were.
Lee, Beckham, Cooks, & Benjamin are in the fair value range but not table pounding Take him!
At #58 there is a high chance you could have a selection of more than one incredible value WR selection. Value-wise a Matthews or Moncrief at #58 would be A++ over Beckham or Cooks at #27 (B to C)
Posted on 3/20/14 at 11:20 am to blueslover
Like you said before it will depend on what they are looking for a big body guy or a smaller speed guy. I think they are going speed guy for whichever pick they choose for wr.
Posted on 3/20/14 at 12:02 pm to 41bengal
I really like KB at 27, but I'm on the CB in the 1st and WR in the 2nd train.
Posted on 3/20/14 at 12:02 pm to blueslover
solid post. this is exactly the type of thing I was looking for. it really all depends on how the draft begins to shake out. i think theres a lot of need at WR this year all around. but its looking more and more likely WR in the 2nd.
Posted on 3/20/14 at 12:33 pm to blueslover
Damnit Blues we are drafting Cooks.....
End of discussion.
End of discussion.
Posted on 3/20/14 at 4:13 pm to Meateye
Verrett at 27
Landry at 58
my preference
Landry at 58
my preference
Posted on 3/20/14 at 4:24 pm to High C
quote:
Verrett at 27
Landry at 58
Not horrible.
I just don't see CB as a need. I'd take BPA out of CB, S, and WR (not in any particular order).
Being that we only have 2 safeties on the roster, one as a RFA and a guy on prac squad, I wouldn't rule it out in the top 3 rounds.
I just wouldn't want them reaching for one particular position. I know that has never been the way the operate (one could argue Ingram), but I would just take BPA.
Posted on 3/20/14 at 4:28 pm to SaintEB
I really think that we could trade back to 35-40 with a team with a hard-on for a player and still get Verrett there.
This post was edited on 3/20/14 at 4:29 pm
Posted on 3/20/14 at 4:29 pm to SaintEB
quote:
I just don't see CB as a need. I'd take BPA out of CB, S, and WR (not in any particular order).
i was discussing this with a friend earlier. if you look at Prob during the preseason, he showed great potential. then you have corey white in there and im sure a draftee at some point. CB really isnt in bad shape at all. a cover LB i think is actually more of a need. What really makes me feel pretty good is we will go BPA since we are not in dire shape anywhere really.
Posted on 3/20/14 at 4:34 pm to blueslover
Blues youre so against taking a WR at 27
Only thing for me is who is gonna be there at 27? I dont think Mosley or Shazier will. Nor Dennard or Gilbert. I like Verrett, but he is better suited as a slot CB. We need a split out wide CB. I like Roby.
And at the same time, what WRs would be there at 58? Robinson and Adams are the only ones that I think could be there, and im not a fan of them. The rest will go before 58. Everyone is high on Moncrief, not just us. Hes been moving up draft boards since the combine.
It all depends on who is there at 27, and while we can speculate who might be there, we arent sure. A lot of things can happen during the draft. Any team could move up or move back. And we can use previous drafts to tell us how many players at each position go, but that doesnt mean that itll happen this year.
If we cant trade back, and there isnt a defensive guy we like at #27, I would hope we take Matthews at 27. Hes the only guy I wouldnt mind us reaching for because I think he ends up being the 3rd best WR in the draft behind Watkins and Evans. And hes mature, experienced, and polished enough where he can come in and be our #2WR immediately. Total package guy. Reminds me of Reggie Wayne, just a bit taller. Great routes, polished, great hands, wants the ball in crunch time, and best of all hes reliable and clutch.
Hes a great fit in our offense and for what we need. What killed us this past year was Moore and Colstons drop in production. They do work in the middle of the field on those medium length routes like seems, posts, drags, digs, post corners, etc. Matthews would be perfect in our O.
This is a loaded WR class. But, at 27, it all depends on who we can get at other positions. And just because its a deep class doesnt mean that they all pan out. So we can wait for a WR in the 2nd or whatever, but that doesnt mean that hes going to pan out.
Only thing for me is who is gonna be there at 27? I dont think Mosley or Shazier will. Nor Dennard or Gilbert. I like Verrett, but he is better suited as a slot CB. We need a split out wide CB. I like Roby.
And at the same time, what WRs would be there at 58? Robinson and Adams are the only ones that I think could be there, and im not a fan of them. The rest will go before 58. Everyone is high on Moncrief, not just us. Hes been moving up draft boards since the combine.
It all depends on who is there at 27, and while we can speculate who might be there, we arent sure. A lot of things can happen during the draft. Any team could move up or move back. And we can use previous drafts to tell us how many players at each position go, but that doesnt mean that itll happen this year.
If we cant trade back, and there isnt a defensive guy we like at #27, I would hope we take Matthews at 27. Hes the only guy I wouldnt mind us reaching for because I think he ends up being the 3rd best WR in the draft behind Watkins and Evans. And hes mature, experienced, and polished enough where he can come in and be our #2WR immediately. Total package guy. Reminds me of Reggie Wayne, just a bit taller. Great routes, polished, great hands, wants the ball in crunch time, and best of all hes reliable and clutch.
Hes a great fit in our offense and for what we need. What killed us this past year was Moore and Colstons drop in production. They do work in the middle of the field on those medium length routes like seems, posts, drags, digs, post corners, etc. Matthews would be perfect in our O.
This is a loaded WR class. But, at 27, it all depends on who we can get at other positions. And just because its a deep class doesnt mean that they all pan out. So we can wait for a WR in the 2nd or whatever, but that doesnt mean that hes going to pan out.
Posted on 3/20/14 at 5:03 pm to blueslover
We have lost three DBs and only signed one. Not to mention the guys that will be coming back from injury. Needless to say we are taking a corner at some point in the draft. Great news is that the draft us loaded at CB and also WR which is our other biggest need.
It looks like the WR class is a bit more top heavy compared to the CBs. There will lots of talent left in the 3rd round round of the draft.
Since we are so top heavy at DB we don't necessarily need to take one in the first round.
I could even see us taking a G or LB early in the draft. Grubbs, Evans, Lofton and Hawthorne all have huge cap numbers next year. At least two of these players will be taking a paycut or will be released after this season.
It looks like the WR class is a bit more top heavy compared to the CBs. There will lots of talent left in the 3rd round round of the draft.
Since we are so top heavy at DB we don't necessarily need to take one in the first round.
I could even see us taking a G or LB early in the draft. Grubbs, Evans, Lofton and Hawthorne all have huge cap numbers next year. At least two of these players will be taking a paycut or will be released after this season.
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News