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re: Saints -1.5 over Packers
Posted on 10/20/14 at 9:53 am to 4thandinches
Posted on 10/20/14 at 9:53 am to 4thandinches
The Saints have a very good chance. I'd say the Saints win this game 3 out of 10 times. But that means it's still a fantastic risk to take. I won't take it because I want to root for the Saints season to continue, but if I was a fan of neither team I'd definitely be betting on GB.
1
Posted on 10/20/14 at 10:01 am to SirWinston
quote:
The Saints have a very good chance. I'd say the Saints win this game 3 out of 10 times.
lol bye dude
Posted on 10/20/14 at 10:02 am to LooseCannon22282
Well me back track a bit before I become like a lot of posters on here and call people retards and moron because you post something they don't agree with. You're not a moron. I just don't think needing a game more equates to better play on the field.
Posted on 10/20/14 at 10:34 am to Dunk47
to the players, it is just another game. I don't know if they'll play better because of the circumstances but recent history in prime time games at the Dome says that they will.
saying that the Saints need this game more than the Packers is just my way of thinking as a fan. I believe that they do.
Green Bay really only has Detroit to worry about in their division while the Saints could very well make a big move in the division by winning this game next week.
Carolina plays Seattle. That game could go either way honestly. But I just can't see Seattle losing 3 in a row.
Tampa Bay plays Minnesota. Yawn.
Atlanta has to play the Lions. With ATL's bad O-line, you have to give the edge to DET.
honestly, a team like Baltimore would scare me more than the Packers this week. They strike me as a more balanced team and might be the team that ends our home winning streak.
I think the AFC is better than the NFC right now. Anytime Tony Romo and the Dallas Cowboys are the talk of the NFC, it must be a down year in the conference.
saying that the Saints need this game more than the Packers is just my way of thinking as a fan. I believe that they do.
Green Bay really only has Detroit to worry about in their division while the Saints could very well make a big move in the division by winning this game next week.
Carolina plays Seattle. That game could go either way honestly. But I just can't see Seattle losing 3 in a row.
Tampa Bay plays Minnesota. Yawn.
Atlanta has to play the Lions. With ATL's bad O-line, you have to give the edge to DET.
honestly, a team like Baltimore would scare me more than the Packers this week. They strike me as a more balanced team and might be the team that ends our home winning streak.
I think the AFC is better than the NFC right now. Anytime Tony Romo and the Dallas Cowboys are the talk of the NFC, it must be a down year in the conference.
This post was edited on 10/20/14 at 10:38 am
Posted on 10/20/14 at 11:02 am to soccerfüt
quote:
The Las Vegas linesmakers want to get action for their betting houses. That's why they set lines. Don't confuse this with an actual prediction of where they think the game results will actually finally end.
what?
Posted on 10/20/14 at 11:04 am to LooseCannon22282
quote:
Carolina plays Seattle. That game could go either way honestly. But I just can't see Seattle losing 3 in a row.
I guess any game can go either way. They are 4 point underdogs though. That's a lot in the NFL
Posted on 10/20/14 at 2:13 pm to TheSexecutioner
quote:
what?
It's a household name.
The reason Las Vegas lines-makers go to the trouble to set lines on games is?
(I'll help you, it is to tease folks into betting on the game.)
The odds-makers do not care what the ACTUAL outcome of the game will be, they want to find the mid-point where the amount of money bet on both teams is.
Take LSU versus UK last week, the line was LSU -10.5. That meant that roughly half of the betting public thought LSU would win by 11 or more and the other half thought UK could stay within 10 points of LSU. If the same LSU team could play UK ten times (over and over again) the average outcome for the ten games would probably be greatly different than the 10 to 11 digit point spread. Thus the -10.5 LSU line has little to do with reality of what the odds-makers think the actual game score will be, it is only the break point for bettor's from favoring one team versus favoring the other.
tl/dr: You are being tooled by LV sports books, they want your $.
This post was edited on 10/20/14 at 2:16 pm
Posted on 10/20/14 at 2:16 pm to soccerfüt
quote:
The odds-makers do not care what the ACTUAL outcome of the game will be, they want to find the mid-point where the amount of money bet on both teams is.
I definitely understand what you're getting at and I've heard that explanation a ton on the Teddy Covers blog and the Millman podcasts, but it seems to me that quite often the books are more than happy to take a "stance" on a game and let it ride.
Perfect example is last year's Super Bowl - there is no way in hell that they made any concerted effort to get Seattle money because the line didn't really move that much. And we're talking the biggest game of the year by far. They kept letting the Bronco money roll in all the way until kickoff (and I think it was one of the more one-sided public betting percentages in Super Bowl history… EVERYBODY wanted to bet on Peyton Manning). They'd have probably lost their entire year's profits to that point if Denver had covered, but they took the gamble that Seattle would cover and they'd clean up. Which they did.
This post was edited on 10/20/14 at 2:22 pm
Posted on 10/20/14 at 2:38 pm to SirWinston
Simple explanation to your scenario is reverse line movement. Vegas knows who should win and they are in the business of maximizing profits not staying within a 50/50 public bet like most tards on here claim.
Posted on 10/27/14 at 12:10 am to LSUzealot
quote:
Vegas knows who should win and they are in the business of maximizing profits not staying within a 50/50 public bet like most tards on here claim.
I did not bet on the spread but i felt like the ebb and flow of Green Bay's season was due for a drubbing.
they barely beat Miami on the road and the Dolphins aren't half the team the Saints are at home.
I felt like the Saints would play with more urgency in this game but I never thought they'd rout the Packers like that.
Great fricking win tonight guys!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted on 10/27/14 at 1:10 am to BuddyLAM
quote:
Jordy Nelson will go in dry good thing he's on my fantasy team
lol
Posted on 10/27/14 at 1:12 am to SirWinston
quote:
Just take the Pack if you can honestly get this line. Doubling your money in a 3.5 hour timespan is as good a payoff as life affords you.
quote:
SirWinston
Posted on 10/27/14 at 7:58 am to soccerfüt
quote:
The odds-makers do not care what the ACTUAL outcome of the game will be, they want to find the mid-point where the amount of money bet on both teams is.
Yes, but its a market flooded by sharks. If the line is wrong, the market fixes it. So if theres 100 Joe Schmoes betting 10 dollars on the popular pick, one capper will go and offset that all by betting 1000 on the other side. The oddsmakers may not care the actual outcome of the game, but an invisible hand guides it to the line being near the best guess in most situations.
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