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re: Realistically, what would the Saints get for Derek Carr in a post-June 1 trade?

Posted on 3/18/25 at 8:25 am to
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
172234 posts
Posted on 3/18/25 at 8:25 am to
quote:


A negligible increase in draft capital doesn’t offset the new hit to me.


well in this situation, its basically the case of all parties want to move on... walking away with a 2nd rd pick value vs a june 1st cut next year and get nothing is stellar value for us.
Posted by saints5021
Louisiana
Member since Jul 2010
18196 posts
Posted on 3/18/25 at 8:45 am to
Carr = Geno Smith. He is 34 and was traded for a 3rd round pick. He was owed roughly 31 million before the Raiders resigned him. Now, I know the very rational members on this board understand that Carr, at a year younger, with an extra year, is a better asset than Geno. Additionally, a team like the Giants or Steelers, who miss out on Rodgers, could trade for a starting QB and pay him in 2025 less than 2 million and 30 million in 2026.

With that said, the floor for him is a 3rd round pick. However, we can't trade him until June 1st, so picks next season are worth an extra round typically, so he is probably worth a 2nd rounder IF he were traded.

Now, I don't think they will trade him, even if Ward or Sanders falls to us.
Posted by St Augustine
The Pauper of the Surf
Member since Mar 2006
68922 posts
Posted on 3/18/25 at 8:53 am to
quote:

walking away with a 2nd rd pick value vs a june 1st cut next year and get nothing is stellar value for us.


I’d shake someone’s arm off for a second. I think that’s HIGHLY unlikely for Carr though.
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
172234 posts
Posted on 3/18/25 at 8:56 am to
quote:

I think that’s HIGHLY unlikely for Carr though.


not sure the compensation is that unlikely but merely it takes an unlikely situation for all 3 parties to be on same page and the Saints find an alternative plan within our cap constraints.
Posted by St Augustine
The Pauper of the Surf
Member since Mar 2006
68922 posts
Posted on 3/18/25 at 8:58 am to
Second round returns are pretty rare man. I agree it would be a weird situation for someone thinking they’re a Carr away from having a season worthy of parting with premium draft capital.
Posted by dcw7g
Member since Dec 2003
2124 posts
Posted on 3/18/25 at 9:05 am to
quote:

Carr = Geno Smith. He is 34 and was traded for a 3rd round pick. He was owed roughly 31 million before the Raiders resigned him. Now, I know the very rational members on this board understand that Carr, at a year younger, with an extra year, is a better asset than Geno. Additionally, a team like the Giants or Steelers, who miss out on Rodgers, could trade for a starting QB and pay him in 2025 less than 2 million and 30 million in 2026.

With that said, the floor for him is a 3rd round pick. However, we can't trade him until June 1st, so picks next season are worth an extra round typically, so he is probably worth a 2nd rounder IF he were traded.

Now, I don't think they will trade him, even if Ward or Sanders falls to us.


All of this is exactly the way I'm thinking.
Posted by GynoSandberg
Bay St Louis, MS
Member since Jan 2006
73356 posts
Posted on 3/18/25 at 9:29 am to
Carr has a no trade clause, which limits the market for him. By June 1, more QB vacancies will be filled. To think he’s a better asset than Geno is silly
Posted by blueboxer1119
Baton Rouge
Member since May 2013
9152 posts
Posted on 3/18/25 at 9:33 am to
quote:

Doesn’t work like that.


Sure it does.

Google Brock Osweiler.
Posted by Weekend Warrior79
Member since Aug 2014
19155 posts
Posted on 3/18/25 at 9:40 am to
quote:

well in this situation, its basically the case of all parties want to move on... walking away with a 2nd rd pick value vs a june 1st cut next year and get nothing is stellar value for us.

I guess that argument could be made for anything higher than a 4th. A team taking him on now would have a 1 year rental at the vet minimum, then they could either cut him with no dead cap hit or use that leverage to bring down that $50M salary to a reasonable number.

The hit on the Saints would be they save $1.2M on the cap this year but have to take the full ~$60M in 2026. Whereas they could designate him a post 6/01 cut after this season and push $40.5M into 2027. I think as long as the figures Mickey is looking at in 2026 support being able to absorb it; you make the move sooner rather than later (as long as you have a QB you believe you can rely on)
Posted by dcw7g
Member since Dec 2003
2124 posts
Posted on 3/18/25 at 9:50 am to
quote:

Carr has a no trade clause, which limits the market for him
Only limits his value if he exercises it. It's well-reported that he was willing to hit the market rather than consider a pay cut, and vibes are that he's soured on the Saints. He knows the Saints are unlikely to extend him after this season. Why would he block a trade to the Giants or Steelers, especially if neither team drafts a young QB? One good year with another team and he's in line for another payday.

Is he more likely to have a good QB season in New Orleans or with the Steelers or Giants. Heck, if the Saints lose 3 in a row and are falling out of the playoff race he's likely to get benched for Rattler, which would tank his value.
Posted by saints5021
Louisiana
Member since Jul 2010
18196 posts
Posted on 3/18/25 at 9:53 am to
You also need to think of it from the Saints side. They just paid him $40 million real dollars during the restructure. Would it be feasible for the Saints to pay $40 million dollars for a 4th round pick? Starting QBs in the NFL are a premium. If the Saints are going to pay all that money up front, they are not going to trade him for a day 3 pick.
Posted by GynoSandberg
Bay St Louis, MS
Member since Jan 2006
73356 posts
Posted on 3/18/25 at 10:10 am to
I don’t think he’s opposed to being traded. But the market dictates the value. Even if it’s one team he doesn’t want to go to, it’s a lot. Guys like Rodgers still needs to sign.

The market June 1 is a lot different than the market in early March
Posted by King George
Member since Dec 2013
5670 posts
Posted on 3/18/25 at 10:45 am to
quote:

[quote]We should be giving picks for another team to take over his abomination of a contract/quote]The fact that you don't know that the Saints are paying his contract whether he is traded or not tells me you should not be giving your opinion in this thread. No one can "take over" his contract, but they can get a really cheap QB. Educate yourself before posting next time.
This is the majority of the fan base. You can't argue with them. You can't reason with them. "Muh Derek Carr is dogshit. Cut him and start Rattler. Cut him and trade for Burrow."

Posted by matty3387
Metairie
Member since May 2018
1570 posts
Posted on 3/18/25 at 8:30 pm to
Please get rid of him
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