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Derek Carr and the Raiders defense
Posted on 2/8/23 at 12:26 pm
Posted on 2/8/23 at 12:26 pm
Since Carr is going to be the topic of conversation until he signs here or somewhere else, I thought I’d do some research on Carr and the terrible defenses he’s had throughout his career.
Since 2014, when Carr became the starter, the Raiders BEST finish in total defense has been 20th. That year, 2016, is when Carr threw for 4,000 yards and 28 TDs to only 6 INTs. Raiders finished 12-3 but Carr got hurt right before the playoffs so they lost to the Texans in the Wild Card. After that, the next best finish for the Raiders defense over the course of Carr’s career as a starter was 24th…
Now, let’s take a look at Matthew Stafford, who a lot of analysts believe was/is in the same tier as Carr/Cousins, at least before the Super Bowl. His best year as a Lion was in 2011 when they ran into a buzzsaw Saints team in the playoffs. They had the 22nd total D BUT were a top 11 scoring D. The Lions best season, just not Staffords, in a long time was 2014, where they dropped a close 24-20 game to the Cowboys who lost a controversial game to Green Bay a week later (Dez Bryant). It’s the best defense Stafford has ever played with. Lions finished top 3 in both total and scoring D. In 2016, the Lions made a playoff again, this time their D finishing top 20 in scoring D and 13th in total D. The very next time Stafford had at least an average defense, he won a Super Bowl. The Rams were 13th and 14th in scoring and total D the year they won it.
Now I’m not saying Carr is going to win it all here. We sure as shite don’t have a Sean McVay on offense. And I’m not even saying Carr is as good as Stafford. Probably more like Cousins or Dak. But if we get Carr, pairing him with this defense could help him have a career resurgence and make us a dangerous team in the playoffs. I was skeptical of making a move for him, but the more I dig, I realize that we can make the playoffs consistently with Carr and who knows what can happen once we do that. Hell, the Eagles got to play Daniel Jones and Josh Johnson to advance to the Super Bowl.
TLDR: Carr has been suffering behind really bad defenses which has skewed his time as a Raider. He’s not that bad.
Since 2014, when Carr became the starter, the Raiders BEST finish in total defense has been 20th. That year, 2016, is when Carr threw for 4,000 yards and 28 TDs to only 6 INTs. Raiders finished 12-3 but Carr got hurt right before the playoffs so they lost to the Texans in the Wild Card. After that, the next best finish for the Raiders defense over the course of Carr’s career as a starter was 24th…
Now, let’s take a look at Matthew Stafford, who a lot of analysts believe was/is in the same tier as Carr/Cousins, at least before the Super Bowl. His best year as a Lion was in 2011 when they ran into a buzzsaw Saints team in the playoffs. They had the 22nd total D BUT were a top 11 scoring D. The Lions best season, just not Staffords, in a long time was 2014, where they dropped a close 24-20 game to the Cowboys who lost a controversial game to Green Bay a week later (Dez Bryant). It’s the best defense Stafford has ever played with. Lions finished top 3 in both total and scoring D. In 2016, the Lions made a playoff again, this time their D finishing top 20 in scoring D and 13th in total D. The very next time Stafford had at least an average defense, he won a Super Bowl. The Rams were 13th and 14th in scoring and total D the year they won it.
Now I’m not saying Carr is going to win it all here. We sure as shite don’t have a Sean McVay on offense. And I’m not even saying Carr is as good as Stafford. Probably more like Cousins or Dak. But if we get Carr, pairing him with this defense could help him have a career resurgence and make us a dangerous team in the playoffs. I was skeptical of making a move for him, but the more I dig, I realize that we can make the playoffs consistently with Carr and who knows what can happen once we do that. Hell, the Eagles got to play Daniel Jones and Josh Johnson to advance to the Super Bowl.
TLDR: Carr has been suffering behind really bad defenses which has skewed his time as a Raider. He’s not that bad.
4
Posted on 2/8/23 at 12:31 pm to WicKed WayZ
At 60M over the cap before adding him, I’m not sure the defense will remain elite.
Posted on 2/8/23 at 12:33 pm to NoSaint
Maybe not. But we have a first and second round pick so it will be very important to hit on those picks to keep the D elite.
Posted on 2/8/23 at 12:39 pm to NoSaint
quote:
At 60M over the cap before adding him, I’m not sure the defense will remain elite.
I've been hearing the doom and gloom about the cap for 10 years now, yet somehow Loomis continues to manage it deftly. At some point the internet GMs would sit back and let the man who actually does this with success handle it. Loomis may not be the best in regards to draft trades and player values and such, but he is a master at the numbers game.
Posted on 2/8/23 at 12:41 pm to Midget Death Squad
Agreed. We can cut and restructure and end up over the cap easily with money to sign Carr and some others. If we want and get Carr, Loomis is going to kick the can down the road again in order to try and win with Carr
Posted on 2/8/23 at 12:57 pm to WicKed WayZ
Carr has suffered from teams who can’t play complimentary football. I’d argue the same for Brees here minus the last 3-4 years of his career.
Complementary football doesn’t change a QBs statistical performance, more likely the W/L ratio. I’m not 100% on this but at first glance Carr seems statistically closer to Dalton than Stafford.
Will be interesting to see what would be different with Carr under center from last year.
Complementary football doesn’t change a QBs statistical performance, more likely the W/L ratio. I’m not 100% on this but at first glance Carr seems statistically closer to Dalton than Stafford.
Will be interesting to see what would be different with Carr under center from last year.
Posted on 2/8/23 at 1:06 pm to WicKed WayZ
If we lose Onyemata, it will put a huge dent in this defense. During his suspension, you defintely saw a difference when he came back.
Posted on 2/8/23 at 1:21 pm to WicKed WayZ
quote:
. Hell, the Eagles got to play Daniel Jones and Josh Johnson to advance to the Super Bowl.
Good lord I didn't realize that. While it may not last for long getting to the Super Bowl from the nfc is not that hard right now.
Posted on 2/8/23 at 1:23 pm to NoSaint
quote:Does this include dropping Jameis and Dalton's contracts?
At 60M over the cap before adding him,
Posted on 2/8/23 at 1:23 pm to phutureisyic
i think onyemata is the one that's not going anywhere.
need a dt and a single high saefty in the first two rounds. matheiu can move back to his best spot. jordan and granderson at de, latt and taylor at cb with good depth. davis, werner and elliss at lb.
that's money.(no pun intended)
need a dt and a single high saefty in the first two rounds. matheiu can move back to his best spot. jordan and granderson at de, latt and taylor at cb with good depth. davis, werner and elliss at lb.
that's money.(no pun intended)
Posted on 2/8/23 at 3:50 pm to Irish Knuckles
Also worthy to note that in 2021, before McDaniels, Carr threw for 300 yards against the Bengals badass D on the road in the playoffs, a team that went on and damn near won a Super Bowl. Got them down to the 9 with seconds left in the 4th but couldn't punch it in. That was the year Gruden was fired after they started 3-1 as well.
Posted on 2/8/23 at 4:45 pm to WicKed WayZ
he just about single-handedly kept vegas in that game.
almost pulled it out. talk about an out-manned team.
he also leads the league in 4th quarter comebacks since he came into the league. in 9 years he's had 28 4th quarter comebacks and 33 game winning drives. shows how bad the raiders organization is.
almost pulled it out. talk about an out-manned team.
he also leads the league in 4th quarter comebacks since he came into the league. in 9 years he's had 28 4th quarter comebacks and 33 game winning drives. shows how bad the raiders organization is.
Posted on 2/8/23 at 4:51 pm to WicKed WayZ
quote:
Also worthy to note that in 2021, before McDaniels, Carr threw for 300 yards against the Bengals badass D on the road in the playoffs, a team that went on and damn near won a Super Bowl. Got them down to the 9 with seconds left in the 4th but couldn't punch it in. That was the year Gruden was fired after they started 3-1 as well.
Perhaps you should also mention that Carr lost a fumble that turned into 3 points and threw directly to a Bengals defender in triple coverage to seal the loss?
Posted on 2/8/23 at 5:08 pm to VictoryHill
quote:
Perhaps you should also mention that Carr lost a fumble that turned into 3 points and threw directly to a Bengals defender in triple coverage to seal the loss?
Dalton did this all season. At least carr took his team to the playoffs when his coach got canned in the same year
Posted on 2/8/23 at 5:08 pm to VictoryHill
And despite that, still led them down the field with a chance to win the game with a below average defense. I mean you can spin it anyway you want. You dont like Carr, which is fine.
I was like you up until a few days ago. I wanted the Saints to suck to get rid of DA and so we can get an offensive minded HC and draft Williams or Maye. But the more you look at it, there are scenarios where Carr can be successful here. There are scenarios where we win a Super Bowl with Carr as our QB. There are also scenarios where we struggle and go 8-9, 9-8 for 2-3 more years. I think that will be dependent on how well we draft and maintain the D, not necessarily how well Carr plays. I'm not expecting him to be a top 10 QB. But I think we can expect him to perform as well as Cousins and Dak sometimes, but also perform just as badly as those two do at times.
I'd like to see how well he can lead the team and how well we would do if we give him a top 10 D. If Jimmy G, Foles, Flacco and Goff can make it to the Super Bowl, so can Carr. Hell, San Fran almost made it with fricking Brock Purdy.
I was like you up until a few days ago. I wanted the Saints to suck to get rid of DA and so we can get an offensive minded HC and draft Williams or Maye. But the more you look at it, there are scenarios where Carr can be successful here. There are scenarios where we win a Super Bowl with Carr as our QB. There are also scenarios where we struggle and go 8-9, 9-8 for 2-3 more years. I think that will be dependent on how well we draft and maintain the D, not necessarily how well Carr plays. I'm not expecting him to be a top 10 QB. But I think we can expect him to perform as well as Cousins and Dak sometimes, but also perform just as badly as those two do at times.
I'd like to see how well he can lead the team and how well we would do if we give him a top 10 D. If Jimmy G, Foles, Flacco and Goff can make it to the Super Bowl, so can Carr. Hell, San Fran almost made it with fricking Brock Purdy.
Posted on 2/8/23 at 5:36 pm to Midget Death Squad
quote:
At some point the internet GMs would sit back and let the man who actually does this with success handle it.
I get this, but it irks me to no end we're at the top end of dead money due to poor personnel decisions.
ETA I'm not at all against getting Carr as long as we don't throw away draft picks and piss away the money.
This post was edited on 2/8/23 at 5:39 pm
Posted on 2/9/23 at 8:32 am to WicKed WayZ
Raiders fanboi here. I read this past season that no QB with 100+ Starts has been paired with a worse scoring D than Carr. It’s something like 24ppg on average. Pretty insane.
Guy has an absolute cannon for an arm and has been mighty durable. Had MVP caliber, #1/2 seed type of season in 2016 before major injury late in season.
In his defense:
1. Organizational disaster—many OCs, HCs, GMs
2. Draft failures and busts
3. Never had a true #1 WR until Adams
4. Top tier all time in 4th quarter game winning drives.
5. Works his arse off, 100% dedicated to being great.
In criticism:
1. Guy always seemed to be good for a bone headed mistake that changed a game.
2. Losing doesn’t make him angry like it does the real ice cold killers.
3. Panicked under duress a bit
4. Though very mobile and athletic, doesn’t use it enough
I think he got fricked by McDaniels and was used as a scapegoat. Pair the guy with a good Defense where he doesn’t have to be scoring 30+ to get into the playoffs and he is a QB in that top 10-12 discussion.
Guy has an absolute cannon for an arm and has been mighty durable. Had MVP caliber, #1/2 seed type of season in 2016 before major injury late in season.
In his defense:
1. Organizational disaster—many OCs, HCs, GMs
2. Draft failures and busts
3. Never had a true #1 WR until Adams
4. Top tier all time in 4th quarter game winning drives.
5. Works his arse off, 100% dedicated to being great.
In criticism:
1. Guy always seemed to be good for a bone headed mistake that changed a game.
2. Losing doesn’t make him angry like it does the real ice cold killers.
3. Panicked under duress a bit
4. Though very mobile and athletic, doesn’t use it enough
I think he got fricked by McDaniels and was used as a scapegoat. Pair the guy with a good Defense where he doesn’t have to be scoring 30+ to get into the playoffs and he is a QB in that top 10-12 discussion.
Posted on 2/9/23 at 10:15 am to The Third Leg
quote:
Raiders fanboi here.
quote:
Pair the guy with a good Defense where he doesn’t have to be scoring 30+ to get into the playoffs and he is a QB in that top 10-12 discussion.
I don't agree with this line of thinking at all. A guy is either a top 12 guy or he isn't - it has nothing to do with his defense.
Tell me, as a Raiders fan, when's the last time you looked back at a Raiders game and can honestly go "Derek Carr won us that game" or "if we didn't have Carr we lose that one." Or just anything along those lines?
Carr doesn't elevate the play of the players around him.
Posted on 2/9/23 at 11:59 am to VictoryHill
quote:
Tell me, as a Raiders fan, when's the last time you looked back at a Raiders game and can honestly go "Derek Carr won us that game" or "if we didn't have Carr we lose that one." Or just anything along those lines?
Well, last season they don’t get near the playoffs without him. His top WR committed vehicular homicide while intoxicated and was banished from the league shortly after his Head Coach resigned in controversy. He elevated the team to an improbable playoff run being coached by a special teams coach and had them inside the 10 yard line looking to tie the game in the final minute against the eventual AFC champs on the road—while playing with a bottom feeder defense.
Posted on 2/9/23 at 12:09 pm to The Third Leg
Non-answer. Give me specific instances. Games that were won because of Carr.
I keep seeing this brought up as if though it's in the favor of Carr's camp. It isn't.
Carr lost a fumble earlier in the game because he held the ball too long inside of the pocket, and then threw a pick into triple coverage right to a Bengals defender to seal the loss.
quote:
them inside the 10 yard line looking to tie the game in the final minute against the eventual AFC champs on the road
I keep seeing this brought up as if though it's in the favor of Carr's camp. It isn't.
Carr lost a fumble earlier in the game because he held the ball too long inside of the pocket, and then threw a pick into triple coverage right to a Bengals defender to seal the loss.
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