2021 Compensatory Draft Picks: 8 Saints free agents who could qualify

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Why don’t the New Orleans Saints ever get any compensatory draft picks? The NFL’s process for awarding those extra selections is carefully guarded by the league office, but the analysts at Over The Cap have done a good job of approximating it based off historical results.

And what they’ve found is that it directly lines up with how active teams are in unrestricted free agency. The only teams that qualify for compensatory picks are those that lose more unrestricted free agents than they’ve added; that means the Saints, always aggressive in the open market, rarely lose more than they gain. But things might be different in 2020.

As many as 27 Saints players could hit the open market this offseason, though many of them are special teamers and career backups. We’re guessing that only 8 Saints free agents could end up qualifying in the compensatory pick formula, and it’s no sure thing that they all return (or get replaced by free agents; the Saints have several easy replacements in the building already). That opens the door for next year’s draft class to get reinforced with some additional picks.

The quality of compensatory selections awarded correlates with the per-year contract values of unrestricted free agents lost to other teams, with the most-valuable contracts translating to third-round picks while the lower-valued may only result in seventh-round selections. Thankfully, Over The Cap estimates the different tiers as such:

3rd round: $13 million or higher
4th round: $8.5 million to $13 million
5th round: $6.5 million to $8.5 million
6th round: $4 million to $6.5 million
7th round: $1.5 million to $4 million

With that in mind, here’s where we’re projecting each qualifying Saints free agent to factor into the compensatory formula.

CB Eli Apple
Estimated average annual salary: $3.75 million
Projected compensatory pick: 7th round

How much are teams going to buy into Apple’s late-season skid before his injury? He was rock-solid in coverage for the first half of 2019, living up to the hype his coaches spoke about during the offseason. But something seemed to switch in Apple when Marshon Lattimore missed time with a hamstring injury, and he ended up getting fouled five times in two games before his own injury sidelined him. If teams think Apple is a first-round draft bust and at best a reclamation project, he probably won’t break $4 million on the open market. But all it takes is one team to bet on his consistently-strong play from the bulk of last season and offer him $7 million or more per year.

CB P.J. Williams
Estimated average annual salary: $4 million
Projected compensatory pick: 7th round

Williams is an adequate slot cornerback, but teams aren’t exactly knocking down the door to sign guys like him. It’s unfortunate, but his strength being in slot coverage and last year’s DUI arrest (and the two-game suspension that resulted from it) are going to hurt his value in the free agency. Williams should be seen as very likely to return to the Saints given his depressed market value, but there’s a chance another team takes a chance on him as being the next Justin Coleman or Chris Harris Jr.

DT David Onyemata
Estimated average annual salary: $4.5 million
Projected compensatory pick: 6th round

Onyemata has steadily improved over time, splitting starter’s reps with Sheldon Rankins for much of the last two seasons. While he’s been disruptive and a solid run defender, he hasn’t produced the impressive pass-rush numbers of players like Gerald McCoy (46 pressures the last two years) or Matt Ioannidis (51). Onyemata probably won’t draw the same salary in the $8 million range that those two and others like them have earned, but he’ll still do well in free agency. Expect him to get low-end starter’s pay, possibly on a one-year deal as other teams bank on his continued upwards development.

SS Vonn Bell
Estimated average annual salary: $5.1 million
Projected compensatory pick: 6th round

There’s a very clear disparity in how safeties are paid in the NFL these days. Ball-hawking, wide-ranging free safeties who can cover broad parts of the field and intercept passes are setting the market with $14 million per-year salaries; think of players like Eddie Jackson, Kevin Byard, and Tyrann Mathieu — and soon, Marcus Williams. The box safeties who excel in run defense and tackles in the open field, doing their best work in traffic close to the line of scrimmage, are topping out around $7.5 million. That’s the high end of Bell’s projection, but it’s more likely he earns something more like the $5.1 million per year that Chuck Clark got. Bell’s only intercepted one pass in 66 career games (including the playoffs), and that may turn off suitors.