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Zach Lowe on Potential Summer Pels Trade
Posted on 4/3/15 at 3:12 pm
Posted on 4/3/15 at 3:12 pm
To Utah.
quote:
This might be my favorite theoretical trade match for the Jazz. If New Orleans misses the playoffs — not nearly a sure thing! — they will cough up a lottery pick for the third straight season. Recouping one such pick might feel good. In Jrue Holiday, they have a point guard snug in the Favors/Hayward age band, with experience spotting up alongside an alpha dog wing player in Tyreke Evans.
That experience cuts both ways from the Pellies’ perspective. The team has played well with Holiday and Evans on the floor together despite the skill overlap, meaning there is no urgent need to break them up. Anthony Davis and Holiday have meshed, and the Pelicans badly need a plus perimeter defender. But Holiday is making big money — about $11 million per season through 2016-17 — to chill on the wing as Evans and Davis control the offense. New Orleans might be able to redistribute its resources in a better way.
Playing with Hayward and Favors might bring the same bang-for-the-buck issue, but Favors isn’t in the Brow’s league as a one-on-one offensive option. Holiday’s chronic leg issues would make Utah queasy surrendering a valuable pick.
quote:
Ryan Anderson would be an interesting wild-card option if his contract went beyond next season. Spending big on a backup is risky business, as the Clippers learned in using their remaining salary flexibility on Spencer Hawes. But Utah could use another quality big even if they keep Booker, and especially if that big provides some legit shooting range. The Favors/Gobert duo is the bedrock of Utah’s defense, but the Jazz have to find a third big who can help Snyder stagger minutes. Booker might do the trick given another year to test his shooting range, and the Jazz could just use cap space on someone like Brandon Bass or Jonas Jerebko. If the Jazz and Raptors ever do talk, they could build some interesting megadeals in which Patrick Patterson ends up in Utah.
4
Posted on 4/3/15 at 3:21 pm to corndeaux
I'd love to be in position to grab a guy like Sam Dekker.
Posted on 4/3/15 at 3:27 pm to corndeaux
quote:
Pelicans badly need a plus perimeter defender.
And where is that coming from? If we trade Jrue but re-sign Asik, are we going to have the money to sign a big time backcourt player? We'd also be losing the chance to use the MLE.
And I don't think $11m/yr is that much with the way the cap is heading.
Posted on 4/3/15 at 3:29 pm to corndeaux
I have to think Holiday is either going to be healthy or untradeable. If Healthy I don't pick Evans over Jrue as the team's starting point. Couple the terrible defense with his terrible numbers in the clutch and you'd be crazy to do that unless you were doing something like bringing in Calipari and thought he could properly motivate him.
Posted on 4/3/15 at 3:33 pm to THRILLHO
quote:
If we trade Jrue but re-sign Asik, are we going to have the money to sign a big time backcourt player?
Nope. Dumping Holiday and giving Asik $11 leaves you with $5.6 million in cap space, and that's not counting the draft pick's salary you just traded for. When your cap space is equivalent to the MLE, you usually are better served keeping the MLE.
Posted on 4/3/15 at 3:38 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
Healthy I don't pick Evans over Jrue as the team's starting point
Of course not. But if Evans is going to dominate the ball and Davis is going to be more of a playmaker, Holiday has the most value in a trade. If he can net a lottery pick, it's at least tempting and worth considering, even if you ultimately pass on moving him.
If Evans/Davis offense is where things are heading, finding more off ball players sounds like a good plan to me. As for the $$, the answer isn't in over paying Carroll or Dudley. It's going to have to be in finding the next PJ Tucker or Beverly. Or another QPon.
Posted on 4/3/15 at 3:57 pm to corndeaux
quote:
It's going to have to be in finding the next PJ Tucker or Beverly. Or another QPon.
The problem with this idea is that these guys take 2-3 years to develop AFTER you find them which is easier said than done. If the next 2-3 years didn't matter then the team probably would have been better off keeping the Asik pick and drafting a center in the teens. But they chose a path that makes that not an option. Trading a healthy Holiday to draft the another QPon will get somebody fired before the move can pay off.
Posted on 4/3/15 at 4:13 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
The problem with this idea is that these guys take 2-3 years to develop AFTER you find them which is easier said than done. If the next 2-3 years didn't matter then the team probably would have been better off keeping the Asik pick and drafting a center in the teens. But they chose a path that makes that not an option. Trading a healthy Holiday to draft the another QPon will get somebody fired before the move can pay off.
If that is the way they look at it, that's an ownership/organization problem and there are much bigger issues at hand than Demps/Monty.
At some point you have to be able to balance developing young players with winning if you want to sustain any sort of run. Again, I'm not saying they should dump Holiday. Just that some long term thinking isn't the worst idea in the world.
Posted on 4/3/15 at 4:18 pm to corndeaux
And honestly, trading Holiday to Utah (a potential rival) seems silly unless they just don't believe in the fit in NO.
Posted on 4/3/15 at 4:22 pm to corndeaux
quote:
At some point you have to be able to balance developing young players
Austin Rivers developed into Quincy Pondexter and Pierre Jackson and Russ Smith developed into Norris Cole. That might be the path they have to take. Demps hasn't given us any reason to trust his drafting. Austin Rivers was a bust. They said they had a first round grade on Darius Miller and I think I heard the same about Withey. So a no brainer in Anthony Davis and 5 strikes for Demps in the draft. Granted that 4 of those were 2nd rounders and the jury is still out on Withey.
This post was edited on 4/3/15 at 4:23 pm
Posted on 4/3/15 at 4:53 pm to TigerinATL
Rivers is awful, but who would the Pels have realistically drafted after AD that is worth a crap? Dell wasn't going to take another PF. 2012 draft was terrible.
Posted on 4/3/15 at 5:07 pm to Solo
Considering we ended up trading the guy that was supposed to fit a need anyway, why not take a Terrence Jones or John Henson? At the time many including myself felt Lamb was a better pick. Hindsight picks, Jae Crowder and Draymond Green went 34 and 35.
#10 in a draft that fell off after 9, and a bunch of 2nd rounders aren't necessarily a good sample size to judge someone's drafting by, but it's the only sample we have and it does not impress. Especially if you gave 1st round grades to guys that ended up going in the 2nd and then can't stay in the league.
#10 in a draft that fell off after 9, and a bunch of 2nd rounders aren't necessarily a good sample size to judge someone's drafting by, but it's the only sample we have and it does not impress. Especially if you gave 1st round grades to guys that ended up going in the 2nd and then can't stay in the league.
This post was edited on 4/3/15 at 5:11 pm
Posted on 4/3/15 at 5:30 pm to TigerinATL
right on
at 10 you draft the best player on your board regardless of need. Obviously if Drummond had been there they'd have taken him, but there are several players that are contributing in the league taken after rivers who was not at all a consensus top ten player
Draymond green I will give you was lucky, but Henson, jones, harkless, the big white dude in Portland, etc all would have been better
I'd just as soon demps not do any more drafting
at 10 you draft the best player on your board regardless of need. Obviously if Drummond had been there they'd have taken him, but there are several players that are contributing in the league taken after rivers who was not at all a consensus top ten player
Draymond green I will give you was lucky, but Henson, jones, harkless, the big white dude in Portland, etc all would have been better
I'd just as soon demps not do any more drafting
Posted on 4/3/15 at 6:57 pm to corndeaux
Jrue's defense is too good to trade. It's obvious how much we miss it.
Has he retracted his statment about cole being not any good yet?
Has he retracted his statment about cole being not any good yet?
Posted on 4/4/15 at 7:10 am to TigerinATL
quote:
That might be the path they have to take. Demps hasn't given us any reason to trust his drafting.
Smart people don't trust the gm/FO to draft well. That's a problem. The rookie salary scale isn't jumping with the cap spike. Would be nice to take advantage of that.
That said, Ziller had a write up about Golden State this week detailing their wayward and uncertain path to league dominance. In this world, the end justifies the means.
Posted on 4/4/15 at 8:06 am to corndeaux
quote:
That said, Ziller had a write up about Golden State this week detailing their wayward and uncertain path to league dominance. In this world, the end justifies the means.
And with no disrespect meant to GS at all, you can throw in "lucky" . . . "fortunate" . . . whatever. I'm convinced the "crap shoot" factor is very, very high in every NBA draft, player development and, in most cases, trades.
Posted on 4/4/15 at 8:13 am to corndeaux
quote:
If the next 2-3 years didn't matter then the team probably would have been better off keeping the Asik pick and drafting a center in the teens. But they chose a path that makes that not an option. Trading a healthy Holiday to draft the another QPon will get somebody fired before the move can pay off.
quote:
If that is the way they look at it, that's an ownership/organization problem and there are much bigger issues at hand than Demps/Monty.
But with this franchise at this point in time, they probably feel they have little choice. They needed (and still need) to become competitive and win games in this market. And if some moves seem short sighted, they have to hope they can pull off some "adjustments" through trades and other moves along the way. Frankly, I think they've done a decent job in that respect. In spite of the seemingly unorthodox roster with its salary, overlaps and deficiencies, the talent ain't terrible. I think there are some moves to be made within the next year or two that can push them over the top.
Posted on 4/4/15 at 8:16 am to VOR
Absolutely. It's nice to see your team do all the "right" things and feel like a there is a plan. But if not and it works, then onward and upward.
This was from Lowe's Tuesday column
Maybe the best sentence ever written about NBA team building
ETA: This is my reply to both of your posts
This was from Lowe's Tuesday column
quote:
In the bizarro world of the NBA, Minnesota fell arse-backwards into what might be a better rebuilding situation than Boston by lowballing its star in extension talks, and then watching as the perfect LeBron storm engulfed Cleveland.
Maybe the best sentence ever written about NBA team building
ETA: This is my reply to both of your posts
This post was edited on 4/4/15 at 8:20 am
Posted on 4/4/15 at 9:18 am to corndeaux
luck/good fortune/whatever seems like it's 50% of the equation. Back to the rivers pick, it's minny's unprotected pick. They were terrible before that year, and terrible since. But that ONE year they played well enough to drop the pick to ONE spot below the good players available
so it goes
just please to the gods of basketball give us one gotdam season without half the team on IR and let's see what happens
so it goes
just please to the gods of basketball give us one gotdam season without half the team on IR and let's see what happens
Posted on 4/4/15 at 9:23 am to corndeaux
quote:
Smart people don't trust the gm/FO to draft well. That's a problem. The rookie salary scale isn't jumping with the cap spike. Would be nice to take advantage of that.
There is just not enough real data on how well Demps+ drafts to make a judgment. Davis was obvious, someone was going to take Rivers. Data, but not enough to project. His second round selections have been good for second round picks.
I find his use of picks as currency very good, however.
Also, if you look at the numbers in detail, the savings due to rookie scale remaining fixed, cap jumping is relatively small. There is little advantage to be taken.
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