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Started By
Message
re: Sochan has to be the pick
Posted on 5/18/22 at 5:40 am to Broski
Posted on 5/18/22 at 5:40 am to Broski
quote:
we simply don't have many shooters.
It's CJ, Trey and maybe BI.
Exactly.
Unlike a not-so-long-ago Warriors team (with Curry, Klay and KD all shooting 41% from 3) who could survive a night where one or two of them are off, the Pels (with CJ 39%, Trey 38%, BI 32% from 3) can't have off nights and need to add & develop as many shooters/scorers as possible.
It's not hard to imagine Zion missing time again next season, and we've already seen what happens when CJ and BI have a subpar shooting night for a Zion-less team. The Pels need to draft another sure-fire shooter/scorer, plus further develop 3pt scoring from Trey, Herb (33%), and Jose (29%).
2
Posted on 5/18/22 at 6:13 am to LSUFreek
This - “It's not hard to imagine Zion missing time again next season”
Posted on 5/18/22 at 7:05 am to Broski
quote:
That is a flawed as hell sample size.
No it’s not, because I’m not sitting here exclaiming we have the best offense in the NBA.
What I am exclaiming however, is that from the CJ trade on our offense was VERY good and it showed not only in the regular season, but it did in the playoffs as well.
So the thought that we need a shooter, or that we should only draft a guy that can shoot the ball, is just false. This team has bigger holes to fill than just needing guys that can shoot, and the offense was good enough that adding another guy that can’t shoot won’t do a whole lot of damage to it.
And that’s not even talking the historic implications of the draft, where the guys that have historically outplayed their draft spots are usually one of two things: old, or can’t shoot.
Oh and btw, I’m not sitting here saying you have to draft Sochan. I would be very happy with Mathurin. But if you draft a guy only because he can shoot, you’re going to be very disappointed. You can trade back in the draft and pick up future assets if that’s your goal.
This post was edited on 5/18/22 at 7:08 am
Posted on 5/18/22 at 8:11 am to LSUFreek
quote:
Unlike a not-so-long-ago Warriors team (with Curry, Klay and KD all shooting 41% from 3) who could survive a night where one or two of them are off, the Pels (with CJ 39%, Trey 38%, BI 32% from 3) can't have off nights and need to add & develop as many shooters/scorers as possible.
It's not hard to imagine Zion missing time again next season, and we've already seen what happens when CJ and BI have a subpar shooting night for a Zion-less team. The Pels need to draft another sure-fire shooter/scorer, plus further develop 3pt scoring from Trey, Herb (33%), and Jose (29%).
I would disagree here as well. Look at the rankings of the teams playing to make it to the Finals:
Offensively:
Miami- 10th
Boston- 7th
Dallas- 15th
Golden St- 17th
Defensively:
Miami- 5th
Boston- 2nd
Dallas- 6th
Golden St- 1st
None of these teams just have countless offensive ball dominate bucket getters that they can throw at you. Miami has Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro. Boston has Tatum and Brown, though the amount of times they just go get you a bucket would shock you. Dallas has Luka, Brunson, and maybe you can put Dinwiddie in there, but I would say his play is an exception. Golden St has Steph and Poole.
You know what they all have though? Multiple long, physically gifted, smart, versatile and team oriented defenders that they can throw at you over and over again.
That’s where the league has gone. Having 6, 7, 8, maybe even 9 switchable defenders that can defend multiple positions without a weak link. You build these excellent smothering defenses, and your one or two ball dominate scorers get you by offensively.
Posted on 5/18/22 at 8:42 am to 3PieceSpicy
This is a pretty good write up. Only thing I would say is that Daniels is allegedly 6’8 now, so he would probably fit the Kyle Anderson comp to a T. I’m curious how bad of a shooter he really is tho. FT% isn’t bad and his form doesn’t look terrible. The biggest concern with him to me is how un-fluid he moves in general. Everything looks so unnatural for him
Posted on 5/18/22 at 8:54 am to CP3forMVP
quote:
But if you draft a guy only because he can shoot, you’re going to be very disappointed.
I think some people see this pick as CJ's future replacement and that is just the wrong thing to think IMO. They have the thread listing all 8th picks going back decades, you're looking at a role playing starter at best. I like Mathurin too, but anyone looking at him because they think he has the highest chance or replacing CJ, that's not likely to end well.
We are hopefully going to have BI and Zion for a long time, and both of them will get better at being who the offense runs through. So what we really want is the best 2 way player we can get.
Posted on 5/18/22 at 8:57 am to bugafor6
quote:
The biggest concern with him to me is how un-fluid he moves in general. Everything looks so unnatural for him
I think he’s pretty fluid, he just moves at his own pace and doesn’t let anyone speed him up. I think that’s admirable in someone his age, but could also present some issues that he will have to work through. I have him down comparable to Derrick White.
Posted on 5/18/22 at 9:07 am to TigerinATL
I don’t think Mathurin fits the CJ replacement description at all. His game is nothing like CJ. There are several guys who fit the description but that’s not Mathurin.
Posted on 5/18/22 at 9:21 am to TigerinATL
quote:
I think some people see this pick as CJ's future replacement and that is just the wrong thing to think IMO. They have the thread listing all 8th picks going back decades, you're looking at a role playing starter at best. I like Mathurin too, but anyone looking at him because they think he has the highest chance or replacing CJ, that's not likely to end well.
We are hopefully going to have BI and Zion for a long time, and both of them will get better at being who the offense runs through. So what we really want is the best 2 way player we can get.
You're right. Short of Mathurin hitting his ceiling, which lets be truthful here, doesn't happen often, he likely projects as a guy that needs to be set up to be really efficient.
Take current Klay for example, he's been good in the playoffs. 20 ppg, 45% from the field, 41% from three, 57% true shooting. That's really efficient. But 81% of his baskets in the playoffs have been assisted on. When he's stopped the ball and just gone to try and get a basket he's been ineffective.
That may be a tad extreme, but that's who Mathurin will have to be, and he will have to accept that. He was a bit of a ball stopper at Arizona, and he's not skilled enough to do that in the NBA.
Posted on 5/18/22 at 9:32 am to TigerinATL
quote:
They have the thread listing all 8th picks going back decades, you're looking at a role playing starter at best
that was and is such a dumb thing to look at.
How about we move down and draft at #9 and maybe we can get lucky and draft a Tracy McGrady, or Amare Staudamire, or Gordan Hayward, or Dirk Nowitzki, or Demar DeRozan.
Or maybe we can move down to 10th and draft a CJ, or Paul George, or Joe Johnson, or Paul Pierce.
Don't act like there aren't all star caliber players that are available at 8. they are there, and are every year. Do your homework and make a good draft pick for the best player available, not someone you are trying to fill a role on your team for.
the guys that have the highest chance to become allstars are more than likely going to be the SG/SF type players in that range.
You see so many busts in that 6-10 range b/c its usually teams that aren't any good making the pick. Tons of PF/C are taken on their big upside and they just rarely pan out when picked around there. I've shown that list before of the gigantic bust rate when picking that raw big in that range.
Lots of SG/SF are taken around those picks that never showed the ability to create for their own in college, so why would you expect them to be able to do that in the NBA? Those are going to be role players. If you can't be a shot creator in college, you sure as hell aren't going to be able to do it in the pros, and if you can't create your own shot, you're a role player, and even worst now, if you can't create your own shot AND you can't hit threes, then you aren't even a good role player.
The upside of Mathurin/Branham/Griffin is that if they never turn into allstars b/c of their shot creation, at worst they can be good shooters, and if they play good defense, then they will stay in the league for a long time. Mathurin and Branham have the upside of shot creation in their game, and could possibly get to that all-star level. Griffin doesn't really have that. If we want to assume that Johnny Davis will revert back to being better from 3, then he has that shot creation upside to all star level as well. Doesn't mean all 3 of them will be allstars, but you can see the difference in upside from Mathurin/Branham/Davis as compared to Griffin, and obviously Sochan. Think about what Sochan has to become to be allstar level good. He's going to be a role player at best more than likely.
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