re: Lonzo Ball is now at 40% from 3. Check in here to eat crow. I am.

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If you really think highly of those guys maybe your position on Ball isn’t the right one

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and if you think Lonzo is comparable to any of those 3 guys, then maybe your position on Ball isn't the right one. Are you telling me you'd rather Ball than any of those 3 right now?

What was that PER36 graphic supposed to prove, that 4 years into the league Lonzo is on the level of rookie Brogdon and 2nd year VanVleet and 4th year Grant, all 2nd round picks? Am i supposed to think that Lonzo is better than all of them so we should give Lonzo 4/$100? I could care less how old Lonzo is compared to them. He's 4 years into the league and you should know enough to know what his game is and what it isn't. The difference between a 23 year and a 25 year old that have both been in the league for 4 years is negligible. You should have a very clear idea of what both players are capable of at that point, and how much more they can improve. The expectation that either of those two players, a 23 and 25 year old will finish out their contract much less sign another one with their respective team is very low.

Lonzo's age has nothign to do with the skillset he lacks that some of you expect him to all of a sudden learn. Do you even watch the games? Have you seen him try to break his defender down and get to the rim? He's not going to get better at that. He's a 3&D wing player, not a PG, and he has very little ability to create at all in the halfcourt for himself or anyone else. His next offensive progression shouldn't be taking stupid arse mid range jump shots, it should be a floater ala Etwaun Moore. He adds that to his game and he becomes a much bigger threat offensively. Learning to hit that shot is much more reasonable than him learning how to finish at the rim in traffic. Finishing at the rim for Lonzo is more of a mental thing, of knowing when he has an open lane to finish without much traffic and when he does not, and he can definitely get better at that. That is something Rondo excelled at. His most inefficient shot right now is from 3-10 feet, where he's 19%. That's where that floater needs to come into play. Then he would have the ability to hit the floater if no one comes out on him, or blow by the big if they come out and get an easy layup. That midrange shot, that he takes one a game, is a terrible shot for him. If he's going to shoot 40% from 3 then teams would gladly run him off the 3 point line and let him take a jumpshot that he's shooting barely over 40% from. and all of what i just said is him driving to the goal after being run off the three point line, not him breaking down his defender off the dribble. WHen you tell Lonzo to take his man one on one, that's when we see a stupid step back jumper. He has no one on one skills, and that's why he should'nt be paid anythign more than the $15-18M range. And just b/c he doesn't have that skillset, doesn't mean he can't improve offensively and become a better all around player on that end.


How much do you think Gary Trent Jr is going to get this offseason, a 22 year old that shot 42% from 3 the last 2 years, and a better defender than Lonzo. and don't come in here and show me his Drtg and tell me Lonzo is better, b/c he's not. He played great defense against Lebron last year in the playoffs. Great defense.
Who do you think is the better player, and who do you think is going to get the bigger contract b/c he was the #2 overall pick and popular on instagram and dancing with the stars or whatever stupid arse show he went on, instead of a 2nd round pick?

And mentioning Brogdon, Grant, VanVleet, Trent, further illustrates how mind-numbingly stupid it is that we've made 2 2nd round picks in the last 10 years.

Eh, I don’t really care about the downvotes, that stuff tends to be driven by the current groupthink of the board and historically that groupthink has been highly volatile and its accuracy spotty at best. See: Christian Wood, Hayes pick, Adams trade value, trading away late firsts, Favors trade, the extreme shifts on Lonzo, Zion Williamson doubt, BI love/hate, SVG.

...I won’t go so far as to say those things won’t ever happen for Lonzo, as there has been the slightest of improvements, but I think there is far too little introspection on handing a guy 20 to 25 million that is currently tied with Bradley Beal in touches per game but in four seasons hasn’t learned to effectively generate offense for himself or teammates in the half court, and how risky that projects out paying him to be your third star. Basically he has only one above average skill set offensively that we project to use regularly as Zion and Ingram become our offensive initiators going forward.

I mean i ask myself, if we pay Josh Hart 12 million and give him an offseason with Vinson, with the expectation Kira will be starting next season. With the expectation Ingram, Zion, and Kira are going to be your primary offense initiators going forward. What does Lonzo bring to the table that justifies paying him upwards of 13 million more a year and committing to him as the third star?

Like I said, maybe in the next month we will see a version of Lonzo night in and night out that looks like his Chicago performance, where he is attacking the basket regularly and being aggressive in the half court, and if so it will go a long way for me in terms of my concerns, but that’s the version of Lonzo I really need to see to justify his future here. Because just look at the Celtics to see what happens when you lack that third player who can reliably generate his own offense for himself or others. And if Lonzo is not going to be that guy, I’m not sure why you devote the cap space, limiting your future flexibility, and pay him like he’s that guy.

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could care less how old Lonzo is compared to them.

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Lonzo's age has nothign to do with the skillset he lacks

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The difference between a 23 year and a 25 year old that have both been in the league for 4 years is negligible. You should have a very clear idea of what both players are capable of at that point, and how much more they can improve.

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Low basketball IQ takes left & right

frick dude you are pimping VanVleet & Jeremi Grant. Dudes were shite stains after 3 & 4 years. What the hell are you even talmbout

I mean I would even argue we aren’t taking the ball out of his hands enough yet still.

Currently he is around top 25 in the league in touches per game, yet amongst the top 30 he is near the bottom in points per touch. Which in the case of some dominating guards, like CP3, Simmons, Sabonis, it is because they are generating a bunch of assists and hockey assists by running the offense, not so much looking to score individually, but Lonzo isn’t really doing that. Just 5 assists per game and .4 hockey assists.

So you have a guy that is giving you a ton of empty calories every game, who touches the ball more than anyone on the team but isn’t doing a whole lot with it.

And as you say, if the real solution is to take the ball out of his hand more and more, which I think is an inevitability with Zion, Kira, and Ingram’s growth, then we need a guy that when he does touch the ball, actually does something with it besides catch and shoot.

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Why not?

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I’m not saying he can’t develop further and prove me wrong, but I’m just saying that, to me, there are other players that show something that isn’t a quantative stat that gives me more hope that they will develop.

For example, Lonzo may be a better player than someone like Nickiel for the entirity of their careers, however, I’d be less surprised if NAW turned into a legit efficient halfcourt scoring option at all 3 levels than Lonzo. Same with Brogdon, he just seemed to me at a young age to be a guy that would develop into an “all around” player

Lonzo has legitimately improved each year as an outside shooter and free throw shooter. He has not shown consistent improvement since year one in passing, rebounding, or defense. That just leads me to believe that for some reason, there may be either something blocking that development (meaning he can achieve it later) or that there is a cap on that development (best he’ll get in those categories). All of this said, if he plays similarly to how he is now, a little better or a little worse, he’ll be a high floor/low ceiling guy.

Now the main question is does the front office believe that Kira (lower floor) is the future, or do they pay Lonzo 20 mil to possibly not develop much further?

I'm starting to see glimmers of hope regarding Lonzo's attacking game. Earlier in the year I made a post where he looked so bad attacking I couldn't see a path forward. The past few weeks he's been attacking more and I'm starting to see a path and it's kind of like his 3 point shot. He just needs to improve his confidence/decisiveness/shot selection and I can see him being able to drive at a decent rate.

For me the major concern is how good can his defense get? The way the roster is constructed the non Kira/BI wing player needs to be the team's best perimeter defender. Lonzo is a good defender but he needs to make the leap to All NBA defender to help overcome the defensive shortcomings of Ingram/Zion. I just wonder if he's physical/strong enough to get to that next level.

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I'm starting to see glimmers of hope regarding Lonzo's attacking game. Earlier in the year I made a post where he looked so bad attacking I couldn't see a path forward. The past few weeks he's been attacking more and I'm starting to see a path and it's kind of like his 3 point shot. He just needs to improve his confidence/decisiveness/shot selection and I can see him being able to drive at a decent rate.

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Not to keep attacking this point too much, but according to the NBA synergy stats, Lonzo is actually down on his driving efficiency in the month of February. 32% on the season, 30.8% since February. He is doing it a slight bit more frequently, but not with more efficiency. He still turns it over third most on the team in those situations, without the scoring Ingram and Zion do in that role(or even Bledsoe), and he doesn’t get many successful assists in the situation either.

I agree in that there is this slight bit of improvement I have felt with his confidence and willingness to attack, but the results still aren’t there and by all the metrics he has a long way to go. And unlike other aspects of his game, the needle hasn’t really moved in four seasons.

So we would be putting a lot of faith in the power of a guy to improve and shift his game in a way he has never really competently demonstrated at the pro level.

...I know one thing though, I wouldn’t want to be in Griffs situation right now having to make the final call here lol

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Low basketball IQ takes left & right

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great retort. Thanks for explaining to me where my assessment of Lonzo's game is wrong.

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If Lonzo ends up checking the rest of these boxes that you are throwing on him, he will be the 2nd best player on this team, don’t ya think?

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I mean there is a really big gap between Lonzo’s basically non existent iso game and 32% driving efficiency with lower PnR success and the two guys ahead of him that are 59%(Zion) and 54%(Ingram) in drive scoring efficiency, are effective iso players, and are better ball handlers in the PnR. Both drawing 3.3 and 2.7 FTA per game on drives vs Lonzo’s paltry .7. Zion with nearly 11 ppg on drives, Ingram around 10...Lonzo 2 ppg.

Both with equal or more assists per drive as well. With fewer drives resulting in turnovers.

And the thing I keep circling back to is that what you want out of your third star is the ability to create offense for himself and others to alleviate the pressure on your stars, especially in crunch time, and Lonzo is really under developed there. And where he has some value, like in transition, he’s arguably not your best option. So bringing up his value there is a bit of a mute point if utilizing him in that spot brings the overall team transition efficiency down a bit.

So maybe your solution is Kira, and in an ideal world I think it makes sense, but then there is the problem of Lonzo’s empty calories touching the ball so much and taking touches away from people that can and project out to doing it better. And if the solution there is to take the ball out of his hands more and more, well now you basically just use Lonzo as a glorified spot up shooteron this team(which is he ok with going from 70+ touches a game to middle of the pack?) while we hope and pray he develops those parts of his game he hasn’t so far? And if he doesn’t, is that a guy you pay 20-25million?

That’s where I’m still struggling.

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I’m asking Bronc if he realizes Ball becomes the 2nd best player if he adds all of these additional elements that he’s calling for to his game

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Going from non-existent or dreadful in those aspects of his game to just average wouldn’t make him the second best player, it would however make his current touches and long term fit as the third option make more sense for what this team needs out of that player(see the post above you I have already responded to you on this)

Which would make me feel a lot more comfortable paying him his likely rate.