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Bronc
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re: Lonzo Ball is now at 39.1% from 3. Check in here to eat crow. I am.
quote:

One thing stats can't tell you is, how confident are you in Zo to produce in the clutch/playoffs?



He can’t create his own shot and is allergic to attacking the basket and seeking contact, so very little. As is his clutch numbers are ho hum.

People keep talking about his improvement, but where the growth has remained relatively stagnant is in the ways we really need him to justify his cost for this team. The ways we need him if he wants to be the third star.

He is still terrible as a driver, shooting 32% on drives on the year. He can’t generate his own offense or break down a defense, meaning we aren’t great with Lonzo dominating possessions the way he often does(currently Lonzo touches the ball more than any other player on the team despite these limitations). It also means we can’t use him in the pick and roll game a ton, except as an outlet(though he is above average when he does it). He is deceptively bad in transition, bottom 13 percent of the league offensively. He doesn’t cut, he is terrible at dribble hand offs, doesn’t know how to score off screens like a truly great three point shooter.


And with the trend of the team being Ingram and Zion, and potentially Kira, with the ball in their hands on the break and in the half court more and more as the seasons go on. Lonzo either gets in the way of that with his desire to control possessions despite those deficiencies, or he becomes even more relegated to a spot up guy unless he can demonstrate growth in the areas he hasn’t really done so far.

And frankly, I want to see more consistency in his shooting. I also want to see what his percentages look like as teams play him tighter. Because if the only adjustment a team needs to make is to play him a little bit tighter and he becomes largely neutralized, we will be making a huge mistake.

His defense is above average, but it’s not Tony Allen/Jrue Holiday tier, and I do wonder what the ceiling is here.

All this is to say this isn’t someone I am paying to be my third star if the price is north of 20 million. At least not until I see more. At least until I know he isn’t going to be a problem if he doesn’t get to play in a glamour market.



TeddyPadillac
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
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re: Lonzo Ball is now at 39.1% from 3. Check in here to eat crow. I am.
quote:

If you really think highly of those guys maybe your position on Ball isn’t the right one




and if you think Lonzo is comparable to any of those 3 guys, then maybe your position on Ball isn't the right one. Are you telling me you'd rather Ball than any of those 3 right now?

What was that PER36 graphic supposed to prove, that 4 years into the league Lonzo is on the level of rookie Brogdon and 2nd year VanVleet and 4th year Grant, all 2nd round picks? Am i supposed to think that Lonzo is better than all of them so we should give Lonzo 4/$100? I could care less how old Lonzo is compared to them. He's 4 years into the league and you should know enough to know what his game is and what it isn't. The difference between a 23 year and a 25 year old that have both been in the league for 4 years is negligible. You should have a very clear idea of what both players are capable of at that point, and how much more they can improve. The expectation that either of those two players, a 23 and 25 year old will finish out their contract much less sign another one with their respective team is very low.

Lonzo's age has nothign to do with the skillset he lacks that some of you expect him to all of a sudden learn. Do you even watch the games? Have you seen him try to break his defender down and get to the rim? He's not going to get better at that. He's a 3&D wing player, not a PG, and he has very little ability to create at all in the halfcourt for himself or anyone else. His next offensive progression shouldn't be taking stupid arse mid range jump shots, it should be a floater ala Etwaun Moore. He adds that to his game and he becomes a much bigger threat offensively. Learning to hit that shot is much more reasonable than him learning how to finish at the rim in traffic. Finishing at the rim for Lonzo is more of a mental thing, of knowing when he has an open lane to finish without much traffic and when he does not, and he can definitely get better at that. That is something Rondo excelled at. His most inefficient shot right now is from 3-10 feet, where he's 19%. That's where that floater needs to come into play. Then he would have the ability to hit the floater if no one comes out on him, or blow by the big if they come out and get an easy layup. That midrange shot, that he takes one a game, is a terrible shot for him. If he's going to shoot 40% from 3 then teams would gladly run him off the 3 point line and let him take a jumpshot that he's shooting barely over 40% from. and all of what i just said is him driving to the goal after being run off the three point line, not him breaking down his defender off the dribble. WHen you tell Lonzo to take his man one on one, that's when we see a stupid step back jumper. He has no one on one skills, and that's why he should'nt be paid anythign more than the $15-18M range. And just b/c he doesn't have that skillset, doesn't mean he can't improve offensively and become a better all around player on that end.


How much do you think Gary Trent Jr is going to get this offseason, a 22 year old that shot 42% from 3 the last 2 years, and a better defender than Lonzo. and don't come in here and show me his Drtg and tell me Lonzo is better, b/c he's not. He played great defense against Lebron last year in the playoffs. Great defense.
Who do you think is the better player, and who do you think is going to get the bigger contract b/c he was the #2 overall pick and popular on instagram and dancing with the stars or whatever stupid arse show he went on, instead of a 2nd round pick?

And mentioning Brogdon, Grant, VanVleet, Trent, further illustrates how mind-numbingly stupid it is that we've made 2 2nd round picks in the last 10 years.



TeddyPadillac
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
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re: Lonzo Ball is now at 39.1% from 3. Check in here to eat crow. I am.


3 downvotes for you Bronc.
I thought that was very well said, full of facts.

quote:

People keep talking about his improvement, but where the growth has remained relatively stagnant is in the ways we really need him to justify his cost for this team. The ways we need him if he wants to be the third star.



This is the crux of the whole argument. It seems like you downvoters just assume b/c he's 23 and he has improved in his first 4 years that he'll just morph into a completely different player, or do you honestly think that his current skill set is worthy of $20M+? He's not going to learn how to be good at the PNR. He's not going to learn how to break his man down and get in the paint. NAW is capable of doing both of those, but he doesn't finish either of them well right now. He could improve on that skill set b/c he already has the skillset to improve upon. Kira has this skill set, and we fortunately will get to see how much he can improve on the finishing aspect of it. It didn't take 5 years to see that skill set from either of them, b/c you either have it or you don't. Lonzo doesn't have the skill set to improve upon it. That isn't a skill set like becoming a better shooter, something that has happened to hundreds of NBA players that once couldn't shoot, but became competent shooters later in their career.

This post was edited on 2/23 at 10:39 am


Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
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re: Lonzo Ball is now at 39.1% from 3. Check in here to eat crow. I am.
Eh, I don’t really care about the downvotes, that stuff tends to be driven by the current groupthink of the board and historically that groupthink has been highly volatile and its accuracy spotty at best. See: Christian Wood, Hayes pick, Adams trade value, trading away late firsts, Favors trade, the extreme shifts on Lonzo, Zion Williamson doubt, BI love/hate, SVG.

...I won’t go so far as to say those things won’t ever happen for Lonzo, as there has been the slightest of improvements, but I think there is far too little introspection on handing a guy 20 to 25 million that is currently tied with Bradley Beal in touches per game but in four seasons hasn’t learned to effectively generate offense for himself or teammates in the half court, and how risky that projects out paying him to be your third star. Basically he has only one above average skill set offensively that we project to use regularly as Zion and Ingram become our offensive initiators going forward.

I mean i ask myself, if we pay Josh Hart 12 million and give him an offseason with Vinson, with the expectation Kira will be starting next season. With the expectation Ingram, Zion, and Kira are going to be your primary offense initiators going forward. What does Lonzo bring to the table that justifies paying him upwards of 13 million more a year and committing to him as the third star?

Like I said, maybe in the next month we will see a version of Lonzo night in and night out that looks like his Chicago performance, where he is attacking the basket regularly and being aggressive in the half court, and if so it will go a long way for me in terms of my concerns, but that’s the version of Lonzo I really need to see to justify his future here. Because just look at the Celtics to see what happens when you lack that third player who can reliably generate his own offense for himself or others. And if Lonzo is not going to be that guy, I’m not sure why you devote the cap space, limiting your future flexibility, and pay him like he’s that guy.
This post was edited on 2/23 at 11:00 am


TeddyPadillac
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
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re: Lonzo Ball is now at 39.1% from 3. Check in here to eat crow. I am.
quote:

I mean i ask myself, if we pay Josh Hart 12 million and give him an offseason with Vinson, with the expectation Kira will be starting next season. With the expectation Ingram, Zion, and Kira are going to be your primary offense initiators going forward. What does Lonzo bring to the table that justifies paying him upwards of 13 million more a year and committing to him as the third star?


That's exactly the point, and why i named a ton of guys that were considerably cheaper that knock down 3's at a high rate, b/c if that's what he's relegated to, then why would you pay him twice the going rate for that player.

If we have to go out and get a 3rd star, or Kira becomes more involved offensively with the ball in his hands, then Lonzo is relegated to a true 3&D player that doesn't do much offensively other than catch and shoot, where the offense is never run through him. So why would you give that guy $20M+?
I think the thought with most of the people in favor of Lonzo is that he will become that 3rd star. I just do not see that happening. He's become a better offensive player than he's ever been by taking the ball out of his hands more, yet people think that he's going to get better next year by putting the ball back in his hands more. His assists are down, turnovers down, yet offensive rating rises, but lets go back to the old ways and make him learn how to get better at something he's shown isn't his most efficient offensive position.


Lester Earl
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re: Lonzo Ball is now at 39.1% from 3. Check in here to eat crow. I am.
quote:

could care less how old Lonzo is compared to them.


quote:

Lonzo's age has nothign to do with the skillset he lacks


quote:

The difference between a 23 year and a 25 year old that have both been in the league for 4 years is negligible. You should have a very clear idea of what both players are capable of at that point, and how much more they can improve.



Low basketball IQ takes left & right

frick dude you are pimping VanVleet & Jeremi Grant. Dudes were shite stains after 3 & 4 years. What the hell are you even talmbout


Lester Earl
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re: Lonzo Ball is now at 39.1% from 3. Check in here to eat crow. I am.
How many times are y’all willing to get burned because you don’t understand development. Sheesh


Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
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re: Lonzo Ball is now at 39.1% from 3. Check in here to eat crow. I am.
I mean I would even argue we aren’t taking the ball out of his hands enough yet still.

Currently he is around top 25 in the league in touches per game, yet amongst the top 30 he is near the bottom in points per touch. Which in the case of some dominating guards, like CP3, Simmons, Sabonis, it is because they are generating a bunch of assists and hockey assists by running the offense, not so much looking to score individually, but Lonzo isn’t really doing that. Just 5 assists per game and .4 hockey assists.

So you have a guy that is giving you a ton of empty calories every game, who touches the ball more than anyone on the team but isn’t doing a whole lot with it.

And as you say, if the real solution is to take the ball out of his hand more and more, which I think is an inevitability with Zion, Kira, and Ingram’s growth, then we need a guy that when he does touch the ball, actually does something with it besides catch and shoot.


Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
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re: Lonzo Ball is now at 39.1% from 3. Check in here to eat crow. I am.
quote:

How many times are y’all willing to get burned because you don’t understand development. Sheesh



I don’t see you actually offering any counters to the substance of what either of us are pointing out besides throwing shade and offering magical thinking as a counterpoint?

I don’t doubt Lonzo will continue to develop as a player, but is his current development focus and trajectory ideal as our 20-25 million a year third star? As of today, I’m not seeing how it is when he is so full of empty calories and lacking at even being average at core critical things we need out of someone touching the ball as much as Lonzo commands, such as creating offense, transition scoring, and doing more than just spot up shooting, but as I said I’m willing to continue with an open mind as we move toward the trade deadline.





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LilWezyAna
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re: Lonzo Ball is now at 39.1% from 3. Check in here to eat crow. I am.
quote:

Why not?

I’m not saying he can’t develop further and prove me wrong, but I’m just saying that, to me, there are other players that show something that isn’t a quantative stat that gives me more hope that they will develop.

For example, Lonzo may be a better player than someone like Nickiel for the entirity of their careers, however, I’d be less surprised if NAW turned into a legit efficient halfcourt scoring option at all 3 levels than Lonzo. Same with Brogdon, he just seemed to me at a young age to be a guy that would develop into an “all around” player

Lonzo has legitimately improved each year as an outside shooter and free throw shooter. He has not shown consistent improvement since year one in passing, rebounding, or defense. That just leads me to believe that for some reason, there may be either something blocking that development (meaning he can achieve it later) or that there is a cap on that development (best he’ll get in those categories). All of this said, if he plays similarly to how he is now, a little better or a little worse, he’ll be a high floor/low ceiling guy.

Now the main question is does the front office believe that Kira (lower floor) is the future, or do they pay Lonzo 20 mil to possibly not develop much further?


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TigerinATL
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re: Lonzo Ball is now at 39.1% from 3. Check in here to eat crow. I am.
I'm starting to see glimmers of hope regarding Lonzo's attacking game. Earlier in the year I made a post where he looked so bad attacking I couldn't see a path forward. The past few weeks he's been attacking more and I'm starting to see a path and it's kind of like his 3 point shot. He just needs to improve his confidence/decisiveness/shot selection and I can see him being able to drive at a decent rate.

For me the major concern is how good can his defense get? The way the roster is constructed the non Kira/BI wing player needs to be the team's best perimeter defender. Lonzo is a good defender but he needs to make the leap to All NBA defender to help overcome the defensive shortcomings of Ingram/Zion. I just wonder if he's physical/strong enough to get to that next level.
This post was edited on 2/23 at 11:52 am


Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
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re: Lonzo Ball is now at 39.1% from 3. Check in here to eat crow. I am.
I’d also like to point out that people seem to be over hyping the FT improvement.

Because, let’s be honest here, it doesn’t do much for a team besides not making you a complete liability in crunch time going from .566 ft% to .743 ft% when you only get to the line .1 times more per game this season vs last for a grand total of 1.3 times per game.

Now if Lonzo could turn that 1.3 into something like 4.0 and get his points per drive up to even NAW levels(32% for Lonzo, 49% for NAW with Lonzo turning it over at about the same rate and both having the same ast numbers on drives) that would turn into something perhaps meaningful.



Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
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re: Lonzo Ball is now at 39.1% from 3. Check in here to eat crow. I am.
quote:


I'm starting to see glimmers of hope regarding Lonzo's attacking game. Earlier in the year I made a post where he looked so bad attacking I couldn't see a path forward. The past few weeks he's been attacking more and I'm starting to see a path and it's kind of like his 3 point shot. He just needs to improve his confidence/decisiveness/shot selection and I can see him being able to drive at a decent rate.


Not to keep attacking this point too much, but according to the NBA synergy stats, Lonzo is actually down on his driving efficiency in the month of February. 32% on the season, 30.8% since February. He is doing it a slight bit more frequently, but not with more efficiency. He still turns it over third most on the team in those situations, without the scoring Ingram and Zion do in that role(or even Bledsoe), and he doesn’t get many successful assists in the situation either.

I agree in that there is this slight bit of improvement I have felt with his confidence and willingness to attack, but the results still aren’t there and by all the metrics he has a long way to go. And unlike other aspects of his game, the needle hasn’t really moved in four seasons.

So we would be putting a lot of faith in the power of a guy to improve and shift his game in a way he has never really competently demonstrated at the pro level.

...I know one thing though, I wouldn’t want to be in Griffs situation right now having to make the final call here lol


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GynoSandberg
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re: Lonzo Ball is now at 39.1% from 3. Check in here to eat crow. I am.
If Lonzo ends up checking the rest of these boxes that you are throwing on him, he will be the 2nd best player on this team, don’t ya think? You are crafting quite the player

Jrue was flawed, BI, Zion have flaws. I’m just not sure we are being realistic here

I don’t believe stocks always go up but I will be honest with Ball here and give him credit for improving facets of his game. Can’t change everything overnight. He’s played for 3 coaches in 4 years and still only has 2.3 seasons worth of actual games played. I do reckon there is an unfair biases him, but I don’t think it’s totally intentional on most peoples’ part


TeddyPadillac
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
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re: Lonzo Ball is now at 39.1% from 3. Check in here to eat crow. I am.
quote:

Low basketball IQ takes left & right




great retort. Thanks for explaining to me where my assessment of Lonzo's game is wrong.


TeddyPadillac
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Dec 2010
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re: Lonzo Ball is now at 39.1% from 3. Check in here to eat crow. I am.
quote:

If Lonzo ends up checking the rest of these boxes that you are throwing on him, he will be the 2nd best player on this team, don’t ya think? You are crafting quite the player



You want to add some boxes for Josh Hart to check off so he can become the 2nd best player too since it's that easy? Oh yeah, he's too old, so he's incapable of getting better.


Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
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re: Lonzo Ball is now at 39.1% from 3. Check in here to eat crow. I am.
quote:

If Lonzo ends up checking the rest of these boxes that you are throwing on him, he will be the 2nd best player on this team, don’t ya think?


I mean there is a really big gap between Lonzo’s basically non existent iso game and 32% driving efficiency with lower PnR success and the two guys ahead of him that are 59%(Zion) and 54%(Ingram) in drive scoring efficiency, are effective iso players, and are better ball handlers in the PnR. Both drawing 3.3 and 2.7 FTA per game on drives vs Lonzo’s paltry .7. Zion with nearly 11 ppg on drives, Ingram around 10...Lonzo 2 ppg.

Both with equal or more assists per drive as well. With fewer drives resulting in turnovers.

And the thing I keep circling back to is that what you want out of your third star is the ability to create offense for himself and others to alleviate the pressure on your stars, especially in crunch time, and Lonzo is really under developed there. And where he has some value, like in transition, he’s arguably not your best option. So bringing up his value there is a bit of a mute point if utilizing him in that spot brings the overall team transition efficiency down a bit.

So maybe your solution is Kira, and in an ideal world I think it makes sense, but then there is the problem of Lonzo’s empty calories touching the ball so much and taking touches away from people that can and project out to doing it better. And if the solution there is to take the ball out of his hands more and more, well now you basically just use Lonzo as a glorified spot up shooteron this team(which is he ok with going from 70+ touches a game to middle of the pack?) while we hope and pray he develops those parts of his game he hasn’t so far? And if he doesn’t, is that a guy you pay 20-25million?

That’s where I’m still struggling.
This post was edited on 2/23 at 12:41 pm


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GynoSandberg
New Orleans Saints Fan
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re: Lonzo Ball is now at 39.1% from 3. Check in here to eat crow. I am.
What the what?

I didn’t add any boxes for him to check. He’s a $20 mil player in his current state imo

I’m asking Bronc if he realizes Ball becomes the 2nd best player if he adds all of these additional elements that he’s calling for to his game

How can anyone retort any of your responses? Christ man


Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
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re: Lonzo Ball is now at 39.1% from 3. Check in here to eat crow. I am.
quote:

I’m asking Bronc if he realizes Ball becomes the 2nd best player if he adds all of these additional elements that he’s calling for to his game



Going from non-existent or dreadful in those aspects of his game to just average wouldn’t make him the second best player, it would however make his current touches and long term fit as the third option make more sense for what this team needs out of that player(see the post above you I have already responded to you on this)

Which would make me feel a lot more comfortable paying him his likely rate.
This post was edited on 2/23 at 12:57 pm


GynoSandberg
New Orleans Saints Fan
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re: Lonzo Ball is now at 39.1% from 3. Check in here to eat crow. I am.
Fair enough mate


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