re: Herb jones signs 3/$68 million extension

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this offer has been on the table forever

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How do we know this?

One of the things that Shamit mentioned on his show was that, under Griff, we never gave out a single player option -- everything was absolutely locked in. But the player option for the last year of this deal is probably what got it done. It's not really a great deal for Herb otherwise, as he'll soon be making less than the MLE. The player option on the last year gives him a good chance to opt out and get another big payday.

Shamit and Jeremy also talked about a couple of other things that don't get enough attention.

1) Herb's impact on the offense
It doesn't make sense at first, but our offense is way, way better when Herb is on the court. Part of it, of course, is that he both causes turnovers and then runs the break at an elite level. Easy points on the break really help an offense. But he also doesn't get enough credit for the screens he sets, especially on the interior.

2) Herb's overall impact in advanced stats
Shamit pointed out that all of the impact metrics actually have Herb as at least a +4 per 100 possessions. That would put him as a top-ten player in the NBA in terms of total impact on winning. Obviously, impact metrics don't actually measure everything perfectly, or Herb wouldn't have just signed the contract that he did. But it does suggest, at a minimum, that Herb is a lot more valuable than most people realize.

quote:

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1) Herb's impact on the offense
It doesn't make sense at first, but our offense is way, way better when Herb is on the court. Part of it, of course, is that he both causes turnovers and then runs the break at an elite level. Easy points on the break really help an offense. But he also doesn't get enough credit for the screens he sets, especially on the interior.

2) Herb's overall impact in advanced stats
Shamit pointed out that all of the impact metrics actually have Herb as at least a +4 per 100 possessions. That would put him as a top-ten player in the NBA in terms of total impact on winning. Obviously, impact metrics don't actually measure everything perfectly, or Herb wouldn't have just signed the contract that he did. But it does suggest, at a minimum, that Herb is a lot more valuable than most people realize.

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Good stuff... obviously the key to Herb's future "worth" to a team is how his "offense" evolves (or devolves)...from this point forward. Any idiot knows what Herb offers defensively. But Herb's offense...is...as a wise man once said, "A riddle, wrapped in a mystery...inside an enigma".

To wit...future 3-pt shooting % will probably be the most important factor in trying to figure out Herb's future "worth" on the offensive side, so...

Herb has shot 33.7%/33.5%/41.8%/ 30.6% for his first 4 regular seasons. 3-pt attempts those 4 years were 169/167/273/72 respectively so...the 41.8% was on heavy volume and the 30.6% season was a very small sample size. So...given those #s...what should an excellent analyst expect Herb to shoot from the 3-pt line next season? If it's in the 33% range...Herb's overall "value" is not that great...but if it's in the 38-41% range...Herb's future value skyrockets...and serious playoff contenders with a "Herb-needed hole" to fill... will be beating down the Pels' doors...come February. Any guesses...on that %?