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Defending the Holiday Trade
Posted on 7/4/14 at 9:55 am
Posted on 7/4/14 at 9:55 am
From The Bird Writes. Just because . . . why not?
"Holiday ranks right in the middle of Tier 2 -- borderline All-Stars that could make the Game in any given year and that, in a good year, could be the 3rd or 2nd best players on legitimate contenders. We can debate endlessly as to where guys rank within that tier, based on defensive contribution, shooting ability, shot creation volume, etc., but a lot of those individual rankings will ultimately depend on what each specific team is in search of. A team built on strong, pressing perimeter defense isn't likely to value Goran Dragic as highly as, say, Kyle Lowry, while a team that requires an ace 3-point shooter at lead guard isn't likely to value Kyle Lowry as highly as Jrue Holiday. It's all relative.
What can be instructive though is determining how often a player of this tier becomes available. In terms of just dollars and years, you'd be hard-pressed to make a case that Holiday is not worth his contract. He absolutely is, and one look at the above should settle that easily. Importantly though, the team gave up a #6 (Nerlens Noel) and #10 (Dario Saric?) for his services. Whether that was worth it is just as important a question as whether his contract is a good one.
*******************************
New Orleans ultimately paid more than other teams have paid to acquire players of Jrue Holiday's caliber. The more important bottom line though is that four teams (four teams!) have acquired Holiday-level or better players either in free agency or via trade in the current age of point guards (Paul, Williams, Dragic, Lowry). They're rare. One became available last summer, and the Pelicans moved quickly."
LINK
"Holiday ranks right in the middle of Tier 2 -- borderline All-Stars that could make the Game in any given year and that, in a good year, could be the 3rd or 2nd best players on legitimate contenders. We can debate endlessly as to where guys rank within that tier, based on defensive contribution, shooting ability, shot creation volume, etc., but a lot of those individual rankings will ultimately depend on what each specific team is in search of. A team built on strong, pressing perimeter defense isn't likely to value Goran Dragic as highly as, say, Kyle Lowry, while a team that requires an ace 3-point shooter at lead guard isn't likely to value Kyle Lowry as highly as Jrue Holiday. It's all relative.
What can be instructive though is determining how often a player of this tier becomes available. In terms of just dollars and years, you'd be hard-pressed to make a case that Holiday is not worth his contract. He absolutely is, and one look at the above should settle that easily. Importantly though, the team gave up a #6 (Nerlens Noel) and #10 (Dario Saric?) for his services. Whether that was worth it is just as important a question as whether his contract is a good one.
*******************************
New Orleans ultimately paid more than other teams have paid to acquire players of Jrue Holiday's caliber. The more important bottom line though is that four teams (four teams!) have acquired Holiday-level or better players either in free agency or via trade in the current age of point guards (Paul, Williams, Dragic, Lowry). They're rare. One became available last summer, and the Pelicans moved quickly."
LINK
Posted on 7/4/14 at 10:09 am to VOR
I don't think he defended it very well, and that's not an insult to Rohan, he wrote a good article, I think the conclusion is we did pay a lot for Holiday. Probably the better question than if we paid too much for Holiday is, should we have tried to accelerate the rebuild at all. In the context of an accelerated rebuild I think acquiring Holiday was a good move. But if Tom Benson were 10 years younger, would we have made these moves? I like the acceleration because AD obviously is ready to dominate the league, but we just got lucky in that regard. If he wasn't, it would have definitely been a mistake. Really the only way to judge this is with success. If this was a good idea we need to be next year's Portland, the out of nowhere darkhorse pretender.
This post was edited on 7/4/14 at 10:14 am
Posted on 7/4/14 at 10:13 am to TigerinATL
Did anyone else see where Tim Duncan and Dirk would be the 4th highest paid players on the Pels??? #gordon #tyreke #jrue
Posted on 7/4/14 at 10:13 am to VOR
Good stuff.
I'm of the opinion that the worst of the negative backlash from that trade is over. When we were struggling last year and the draft was looming, of course the instant reaction from neutral parties (and even some fans) was that we had made a mistake.
It's easier to make snap judgements like that in the present/short term. Now that the loaded draft has come and gone, I expect we will have to defend this trade less and less often.
I'm of the opinion that the worst of the negative backlash from that trade is over. When we were struggling last year and the draft was looming, of course the instant reaction from neutral parties (and even some fans) was that we had made a mistake.
It's easier to make snap judgements like that in the present/short term. Now that the loaded draft has come and gone, I expect we will have to defend this trade less and less often.
Posted on 7/4/14 at 10:20 am to VOR
It's a good article. Rohan even admits he's not that big of a fan and still thinks it was an overpay. These players are rare, but none of them delivered 2 1sts- especially w/ one being a mid lottery pick.
Same time, I get the logic. They bet on Davis being very good, very soon. They were right.
HP tweeted out about the article and Lowe responded
Lowe's point is a good one. I really don't think Holiday is "untouchable." More so if you have Evans already on board. And Moore is spot on about Philly.
ETA: Moore's Twitter feed right now is crawling with Sixers fans losing their minds.
Same time, I get the logic. They bet on Davis being very good, very soon. They were right.
HP tweeted out about the article and Lowe responded
quote:
Hardwood Paroxysm
@HPbasketball
Really interesting logic exercise here by @Rohan_Cruyff reviewing the Jrue Holiday trade for New Orleans LINK …
quote:
Zach Lowe ?@ZachLowe_NBA 27m
@HPbasketball We're going to be talking about that trade in 10, 15 years. Not sure it's proven Jrue could be 2nd/3rd best on a contender yet
quote:
Hardwood Paroxysm ?@HPbasketball 25m
@ZachLowe_NBA Sixers managed to win that trade and then somehow re-lose it.
Lowe's point is a good one. I really don't think Holiday is "untouchable." More so if you have Evans already on board. And Moore is spot on about Philly.
ETA: Moore's Twitter feed right now is crawling with Sixers fans losing their minds.
This post was edited on 7/4/14 at 10:22 am
Posted on 7/4/14 at 10:21 am to TigerinATL
quote:
I think the conclusion is we did pay a lot for Holiday.
Yes, but . . .
quote:
Probably the better question than if we paid too much for Holiday is, should we have tried to accelerate the rebuild at all. In the context of an accelerated rebuild I think acquiring Holiday was a good move.
So I think that's where Rohan ends up agreeing. And I do, too.
quote:
I like the acceleration because AD obviously is ready to dominate the league, but we just got lucky in that regard. If he wasn't, it would have definitely been a mistake. Really the only way to judge this is with success. If this was a good idea we need to be next year's Portland, the out of nowhere darkhorse pretender.
Sounds good to me.
Posted on 7/4/14 at 10:25 am to VOR
quote:
Importantly though, the team gave up a #6 (Nerlens Noel) and #10 (Dario Saric?)
Nerlens and Payton.
Pretty weak to try and use Saric in that scenario.
Posted on 7/4/14 at 10:29 am to GynoSandberg
quote:
Nerlens and Payton.
Pretty weak to try and use Saric in that scenario
It should probably be Burke and whoever at 10.
What's fascinating is he lists Burke as a future tier 2 guy. So, if you believed in Burke then this trade makes sense only in the win now ledger.
Edit: In essence, you're giving up nearly a decade of Burke and another pick for 4 years of Holiday.
This post was edited on 7/4/14 at 10:39 am
Posted on 7/4/14 at 10:29 am to GynoSandberg
quote:
Pretty weak to try and use Saric in that scenario.
Agree. I think Rohan is off base there.
Posted on 7/4/14 at 10:34 am to GynoSandberg
quote:
Nerlens and Payton.
Pretty weak to try and use Saric in that scenario.
I don't think Payton is a given either, because many people think we would have taken Burke or MCW rather than Noel. So we really could be talking Burke/MCW + Saric/McDermott. I actually think Demps would have still traded for a veteran. Again, the real question isn't the Holiday acquisition itself but the accelerated rebuild, and I know many here have been strongly against it from the start.
Posted on 7/4/14 at 10:43 am to TigerinATL
IMO I don't think they would've passed on Noel under any scenario. Either way, if it's Burke or Payton or even MCW, the argument doesn't bode well.
Like Lowe said, this is one we will be looking at for the next ten years.
Like Lowe said, this is one we will be looking at for the next ten years.
Posted on 7/4/14 at 10:56 am to GynoSandberg
quote:
Did anyone else see where Tim Duncan and Dirk would be the 4th highest paid players on the Pels??? #gordon #tyreke #jrue
Unfair comparison considering both have given serious hometown discounts to their teams.
Posted on 7/4/14 at 10:59 am to GynoSandberg
quote:
Pretty weak to try and use Saric in that scenario.
I think Burke would have been the pick last year, but I don't think Saric would have been totally out of the picture for us this year at 10. If we kept the picks, we'd obviously be doing a slower rebuild than what we're doing now. We all know Demps loved Saric, so if we were to do a slower rebuild, we very could have chosen to wait a couple of years on Saric. The 76ers are only a year behind us in the blowing it up/rebuild process and they still took Saric.
Posted on 7/4/14 at 11:37 am to GynoSandberg
quote:
Did anyone else see where Tim Duncan and Dirk would be the 4th highest paid players on the Pels??? #gordon #tyreke #jrue
We are not the Spurs in so many ways.
This post was edited on 7/4/14 at 11:38 am
Posted on 7/4/14 at 12:07 pm to mm2316
No way we take saric after he signed overseas. Holiday trade gets so much crap because he got hurt and never had time to gel with AD. We really need one more year to even have an opinion on it.
Posted on 7/4/14 at 12:26 pm to ShamelessPel
As much as you don't think we would have take Saric, you can't say there's no way we would have taken him, no one but the team knows that. Dell made it no secret he wanted Saric, and if we kept the picks and chosen a slower rebuild, Saric not playing for two years wouldn't have mattered much. Most rookies out of college take at least two years to develop anyway, so it's not like who ever we would have taken there would've made a huge impact this season anyway.
It's not like he fell to the end of the 1st to a team like the Spurs who wouldn't need him for another couple of years anway. He still went top 10 to another rebuilding team.
It's not like he fell to the end of the 1st to a team like the Spurs who wouldn't need him for another couple of years anway. He still went top 10 to another rebuilding team.
This post was edited on 7/4/14 at 12:30 pm
Posted on 7/4/14 at 12:27 pm to ShamelessPel
quote:
We really need one more year to even have an opinion on it.
At least.
Posted on 7/4/14 at 12:30 pm to mm2316
The pick would have been Burke that year. I think we should wait til the end of this year to judge accurately.
Posted on 7/4/14 at 12:36 pm to VOR
My biggest issue with the trade is that the market for what you could get for a pg similar to Jrue had been set the year before when Lowry went to the Raptors. It's basically what the Pels gave up to get Asik. I'm also a firm believer in Noel's talent, and that's why I don't think
is true.
quote:
the worst of the negative backlash from that trade is over.
is true.
Posted on 7/4/14 at 1:04 pm to ZTiger87
quote:
Holiday trade gets so much crap because he got hurt and never had time to gel with AD. We really need one more year to even have an opinion on it.
This.
Holiday was improving steadily the more he played with his new team. I really felt like he was on the border of taking it to the next level with this team before he got hurt.
His decision making and his assist/turnover ratio were improving and he had a nice spot up three point shot. We already knew his D was solid.
When him and AD get flowing together this team will be scary good.
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