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re: Aug 6th BI Deadline

Posted on 8/7/24 at 7:57 pm to
Posted by Soggymoss
Member since Aug 2018
17297 posts
Posted on 8/7/24 at 7:57 pm to
quote:

You think someone will throw us assets for 3 months of BI??

Yes, just like Indiana gave up 3 1sts and Bruce Brown for Siakam last year after they started the season off overachieving, someone will start hot and throw assets at Griff for BI.
Posted by Pels_Yaz
Member since Apr 2023
11544 posts
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:14 pm to
quote:

Yes, just like Indiana gave up 3 1sts and Bruce Brown for Siakam last year after they started the season off overachieving, someone will start hot and throw assets at Griff for BI.


A big part of that deal likely was negotiating an extension with Siakam beforehand so he would resign. Do you think BI in half a season will bring up his value enough for a team to give him his 45-50 mil contract and then surrender 3 first round picks for him as well? I just don’t see that happening.
Posted by Soggymoss
Member since Aug 2018
17297 posts
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:38 pm to
quote:

A big part of that deal likely was negotiating an extension with Siakam beforehand so he would resign. Do you think BI in half a season will bring up his value enough for a team to give him his 45-50 mil contract and then surrender 3 first round picks for him as well? I just don’t see that happening.

Siakam said last season that anyone that traded for him he wouldn’t re-sign with that team and would test free agency. They didn’t negotiate anything with him before the trade.
Posted by Pels_Yaz
Member since Apr 2023
11544 posts
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:45 pm to
quote:

Siakam said last season that anyone that traded for him he wouldn’t re-sign with that team and would test free agency. They didn’t negotiate anything with him before the trade.


You are very naive if you believe Indiana would give up 3 first rounders without having some kind “wink-wink” deal in place after the season. There was also a rumor that he wouldn’t sign a long term deal with the Kings and thats why the Kings pulled out of trading for him. Most analysts who reviewed the trade said that likely was the case in regards to Siakam and Indiana.

Theres no way a team would give up that much for BI unless they come to some kind of agreement long term.
Posted by Soggymoss
Member since Aug 2018
17297 posts
Posted on 8/7/24 at 8:54 pm to
quote:

Theres no way a team would give up that much for BI unless they come to some kind of agreement long term.

Point me anywhere in this thread where I said a team would give up that much….

I said a team would overachieve and give up assets.
Posted by Pels_Yaz
Member since Apr 2023
11544 posts
Posted on 8/7/24 at 9:01 pm to
quote:

Point me anywhere in this thread where I said a team would give up that much….


My man you brought Siakam as an example. Again like I asked before what type of assets are you expecting for 3 months of BI? Even if he improves, most teams will wait it out until he hits free agency- thats my point.
Posted by Chalkywhite84
New orleans
Member since Dec 2016
33522 posts
Posted on 8/7/24 at 9:42 pm to
quote:

Even if he improves, most teams will wait it out until he hits free agency- thats my point


Or a team trades for him that thinks bi gets them over the hump.

It happens almost every yr.
Posted by Pels_Yaz
Member since Apr 2023
11544 posts
Posted on 8/7/24 at 9:52 pm to
quote:

Or a team trades for him that thinks bi gets them over the hump. It happens almost every yr.


Say this happens- if we’re that lucky. What do you think we’re going to get? Crappy filler salaries and maybe a heavily protected first. Is that worth waiting for?
Posted by Epic Cajun
Lafayette, LA
Member since Feb 2013
36280 posts
Posted on 8/7/24 at 10:21 pm to
quote:

We would be a worse team for that trade

Is Collins better than nothing if Ingram walks next offseason?
Posted by NOSHAU
Member since Feb 2012
13471 posts
Posted on 8/7/24 at 10:44 pm to
quote:

Even if he improves, most teams will wait it out until he hits free agency- thats my point.
Most teams will not have the cap space to wait until free agency so some may be willing to trade for him in order to maintain bird rights.
Posted by Soggymoss
Member since Aug 2018
17297 posts
Posted on 8/8/24 at 5:42 am to
quote:

My man you brought Siakam as an example

I brought up Indiana overachieving and trading for Siakam as an example…
quote:

Even if he improves, most teams will wait it out until he hits free agency- thats my point.

And your point would be wrong. Brooklyn is the only team expected to have cap space. That means you have 28 other teams that would have to trade for him.

Ask yourself, if a team like say Charlotte is overachieving and is say 12-8 20 games in, why would they wait until the offseason to try to add a free agent to that team knowing they don’t have cap space and would have to trade for him anyway?

They would trade for him in season and have a leg up in negotiations because they acquired his bird rights.

Then you have teams like Miami for instance that are aging and are kind of on the cusp of not knowing if they will be good or if they have to blow it up. You go into the season and see how good you are before making the decision to make a big trade like that, because if you do the trade now and in season see Butler is finished, then you wasted those assets and have to blow it up anyway.


Posted by Pels_Yaz
Member since Apr 2023
11544 posts
Posted on 8/8/24 at 8:06 am to
quote:

And your point would be wrong. Brooklyn is the only team expected to have cap space. That means you have 28 other teams that would have to trade for him.


Is this exactly true? Without looking this up, I highly doubt they are the only team next year with space to sign Ingram.

quote:

I brought up Indiana overachieving and trading for Siakam as an example…


You still haven’t answered what you think you’ll get back in return for a BI midseason trade? If not a Siakam haul then what do you expect?

quote:

Ask yourself, if a team like say Charlotte is overachieving and is say 12-8 20 games in, why would they wait until the offseason to try to add a free agent to that team knowing they don’t have cap space and would have to trade for him anyway? They would trade for him in season and have a leg up in negotiations because they acquired his bird rights. Then you have teams like Miami for instance that are aging and are kind of on the cusp of not knowing if they will be good or if they have to blow it up. You go into the season and see how good you are before making the decision to make a big trade like that, because if you do the trade now and in season see Butler is finished, then you wasted those assets and have to blow it up anyway.


Again this is all assuming nobody but the Nets will have cap space or have ability to make cap space. And again do you think there will be significant offers for BI for 3 months of him and maybe his early bird rights?
Posted by Soggymoss
Member since Aug 2018
17297 posts
Posted on 8/8/24 at 8:44 am to
quote:

Is this exactly true? Without looking this up, I highly doubt they are the only team next year with space to sign Ingram.

Yes this is true. You will have teams with around 10 million in space, but Brooklyn is projected to be the only team with significant cap space to sign a player like Ingram. In fact Keith Smith read my mind. Keep in mind for Houston to get to 30 million they would have to renounce and let Green, Tate and Sengun walk which won’t happen. 25 million for Wizards is not enough and 20 million for Spurs is not enough
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quote:

Again this is all assuming nobody but the Nets will have cap space or have ability to make cap space. And again do you think there will be significant offers for BI for 3 months of him and maybe his early bird rights?

Where have I said we will get significant offers? What’s your idea of a significant offer? And your not “maybe” getting his bird rights, you’re getting them if you trade for him.
quote:

You still haven’t answered what you think you’ll get back in return for a BI midseason trade? If not a Siakam haul then what do you expect?

It depends on the team trading for him…
This post was edited on 8/8/24 at 8:52 am
Posted by Epic Cajun
Lafayette, LA
Member since Feb 2013
36280 posts
Posted on 8/8/24 at 8:53 am to
quote:

Is this exactly true? Without looking this up, I highly doubt they are the only team next year with space to sign Ingram.

Brooklyn is projected to have the space.

Houston could potentially have the space, but it really depends on what they plan on doing with Jalen Green's cap hold and Fred VanVleet's team option. It would be a pretty weird decision to let Jalen Green walk in order to give BI a max, IMO. If they keep Jalen Green, unless they get him to sign a deal for less than 30 million, they would only logically have somewhere in the upper 30's to offer BI in the first year of a contract.

Washington is another team that could have somewhere in the 40's in cap space, but is BI really the answer to their problems? And would he go there for less than a max contract? It seems to me like he'd be better off signing with the Pels for a similar contract (if that's being offered, who knows what he's being offered by the team currently).

Obviously other teams could potentially make moves to get more cap space, but there aren't many teams expected to have max cap space next offseason.
Posted by Epic Cajun
Lafayette, LA
Member since Feb 2013
36280 posts
Posted on 8/8/24 at 9:02 am to
quote:

Keep in mind for Houston to get to 30 million they would have to renounce and let Green, Tate and Sengun walk which won’t happen

This isn't true.

I was just looking at their numbers for next offseason.

They can keep:

Green-31.2 (cap hold)
Brooks-21.1
Sengun-16.3 (cap hold)
Smith Jr-12.4
Sheppard-10.6
Thompson-9.7
Eason-5.7
Whitmore-3.6

That's roughly 111 million in cap allocated, the cap is projected to be 154 million. Obviously you have some cap holds for open roster spots, and I have them declining some team options that they may want to keep, but what I'm looking at has them with ~40 million in space with the cap holds for both Sengun and Green on the books.

ETA: I'm pretty sure for Spotrac's projections they project that the team will keep all players on team options and that players will decline every player option, rather than looking at it on a case by case basis and attempting to actually predict what players and teams will do.
This post was edited on 8/8/24 at 9:05 am
Posted by Pels_Yaz
Member since Apr 2023
11544 posts
Posted on 8/8/24 at 9:05 am to
quote:

Yes this is true. You will have teams with around 10 million in space, but Brooklyn is projected to be the only team with significant cap space to sign a player like Ingram.


I just looked up cap space for next year. Teams like spurs, and wizards along with other teams have similar payrolls. Not understanding why you think its only Brooklyn?

quote:

Where have I said we will get significant offers? What’s your idea of a significant offer? And your not “maybe” getting his bird rights, you’re getting them if you trade for him.


Basically do you think trading for him midseason helps increase or decrease his trade value? I think due to getting him half a season it decreases his value. Despite bird rights or him playing a bit better. He would have to make a significant jump in the way he plays to maybe have some increase in value.
Posted by Soggymoss
Member since Aug 2018
17297 posts
Posted on 8/8/24 at 9:10 am to
You forgetting VanVleet who Houston will not let walk. They may drop his salary down some to 30 million range, but they’re not letting him leave.

quote:

I just looked up cap space for next year. Teams like spurs, and wizards along with other teams have similar payrolls. Not understanding why you think its only Brooklyn?

Oh my bad, I didn’t realize Pelz_Yaz is more of a cap expert than the actual experts at Spotrac…
quote:

Basically do you think trading for him midseason helps increase or decrease his trade value? I think due to getting him half a season it decreases his value. Despite bird rights or him playing a bit better. He would have to make a significant jump in the way he plays to maybe have some increase in value.

Again, this depends on the team. You have older aging teams like Miami that may want to see how they fare before making a trade like that in case they need to change course and blow it up. Then you have younger teams like Charlotte that need to see if they’re close or if they need a couple more years of development.
This post was edited on 8/8/24 at 9:17 am
Posted by Epic Cajun
Lafayette, LA
Member since Feb 2013
36280 posts
Posted on 8/8/24 at 9:14 am to
quote:

You forgetting VanVleet who Houston will not let walk.

I'm not forgetting VanVleet, I'm projecting that if they had a better option they could let him walk.

I'm just showing what's possible if they wanted, who knows what they'll actually do. I think letting VV walk and keeping the CH's for both Sengun and Green makes more logical sense than keeping VV and letting both Sengun and Green walk.

ETA: it's likely they keep VV, and keep the CH's for both Sengun and Green, which would leave them without much cap space at all (if any).

ETA2: my whole point is that you can't just look at the Spotrac projections and take that for a fact, because like I mentioned in my earlier post they just automatically assume that teams will keep players on team options and that players will decline every player option. I understand why they do it, rather than guessing at what each team will do (in order to have some semblance of standardization), but you can't just take the projected cap space on their site for a fact.
This post was edited on 8/8/24 at 9:18 am
Posted by Pels_Yaz
Member since Apr 2023
11544 posts
Posted on 8/8/24 at 9:17 am to
quote:

Oh my bad, I didn’t realize Pelz_Yaz is more of a cap expert than the actual experts at Spotrac…


I never said that. You’re posting multiple times the Nets are the only team with cap space to pay him. That doesn’t seem to be true. No need to be bitter. How much space does Spotrac say Wiz or Spurs have- since you’re the Spotrac expert Soggy?
Posted by Soggymoss
Member since Aug 2018
17297 posts
Posted on 8/8/24 at 9:19 am to
quote:

I'm not forgetting VanVleet, I'm projecting that if they had a better option they could let him walk. I'm just showing what's possible if they wanted, who knows what they'll actually do. I think letting VV walk and keeping the CH's for both Sengun and Green makes more logical sense than keeping VV and letting both Sengun and Green walk. ETA: it's likely they keep VV, and keep the CH's for both Sengun and Green, which would leave them without much cap space at all (if any).

The logical thing for them to do would be to keep Green, VV and Sengun, then take JSJ and Brooks along with their pick(s) if needed to dangle in S&T scenarios.

However, I think Houston is another one of those teams that will be going into the season as a lets see what happens team. They may suck and decide to let FVV walk altogether and just tank, or they may overachieve like they started last season and push in chips to get BI in November/December.
This post was edited on 8/8/24 at 9:55 am
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