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Message
re: who do you like in the belmont saturday?
Posted on 6/10/11 at 9:55 pm to Rohan2Reed
Posted on 6/10/11 at 9:55 pm to Rohan2Reed
I went with the 1,5,6, & 9 Super Boxed and the 4,9, & 12 Exacta Boxed.
1
Posted on 6/11/11 at 12:49 am to Me Bite
Monzon's jockey runs almost exclusively at Belmont. and he usually never finishes worse than 4th. food for thought.
also looking at jockeys, Shackleford rider Jesus Castanon is not very familiar with the Belmont track and is riding in ZERO undercard races and hasn't done any workouts there this week. that really scares me. could be another Stewart Elliott type ride where he makes his move too soon.
even though i don't think Shack can win i doubt he'll finish worse than 4th. especially with not many horses to press him for the lead. if they don't he may actually run away with it.
and MoH. Go and Go anyone?
if i was betting right now my primary bet would be $2 super box AK, BS, MoH, Nehro and Shack
smaller exotics where i leave out one or two favorites will include MMM, Santiva (not a true believer yet) and Monzon. i've pretty much thrown out the rest. (Stay Thirsty scares me though)
also looking at jockeys, Shackleford rider Jesus Castanon is not very familiar with the Belmont track and is riding in ZERO undercard races and hasn't done any workouts there this week. that really scares me. could be another Stewart Elliott type ride where he makes his move too soon.
even though i don't think Shack can win i doubt he'll finish worse than 4th. especially with not many horses to press him for the lead. if they don't he may actually run away with it. and MoH. Go and Go anyone?
if i was betting right now my primary bet would be $2 super box AK, BS, MoH, Nehro and Shack
smaller exotics where i leave out one or two favorites will include MMM, Santiva (not a true believer yet) and Monzon. i've pretty much thrown out the rest. (Stay Thirsty scares me though)
This post was edited on 6/11/11 at 12:50 am
Posted on 6/11/11 at 1:04 am to Rohan2Reed
in the Manhattan tomorrow check out Straight Story and Mission Approved to go along with Gio Ponti.
Aivate and Cherokee Queen in race 9. Leparoux/Motion have the 1 horse in that race as well. worth looking into.
really good value in race 5 if you want to do some digging.
i'm pumped about tomorrow. will report more live from Belmont Park as I see the horses up close.
Aivate and Cherokee Queen in race 9. Leparoux/Motion have the 1 horse in that race as well. worth looking into.
really good value in race 5 if you want to do some digging.
i'm pumped about tomorrow. will report more live from Belmont Park as I see the horses up close.
Posted on 6/11/11 at 2:21 am to Rohan2Reed
it's raining pretty steady here right now and the forecast has taken a turn for the worst. if we have a slow, sloppy track tomorrow evening who do y'all think that helps? Shackleford and Stay Thirsty definitely, IMO. AK breezed over big sandy this week and looked like he was running on a shallower and harder surface than Belmont really is. who has good turf horses in their pedigree? all things to consider if it's wet out there.
Posted on 6/11/11 at 2:35 am to Rohan2Reed
just watched the Preakness again a few times. i know right after Pimlico Boh brought up what a great ride Castanon gave Shack and the move he made in the final 1/16th. i wonder how much Shack winning that race had to do with his jockey's superb instinct at the end to get him balanced out with a whip switch to his lead leg and less to do with Shack's talent. no doubt he's a speedy horse with decent stamina, but he really seemed to be laboring with 100 yards left to go.. ducked in late but a smart ride (plus the 1 3/16) got him across the wire first.
This post was edited on 6/11/11 at 2:37 am
Posted on 6/11/11 at 7:22 am to Rohan2Reed
40% chance of rain at 5:00 pm. I didn't even account for rain!
Posted on 6/11/11 at 7:32 am to Me Bite
yeah. going to be an interesting day of racing. definitely need to watch the undercard races and see how horses are running on the surface throughout the day. where on the track the ideal spot to run is and who is likely to get that trip in the big race.
here's a good analysis about the Belmont and weather Miami Herald
i'm not going to place my bets until a few minutes before. i'll try to post what it's like out there.
here's a good analysis about the Belmont and weather Miami Herald
i'm not going to place my bets until a few minutes before. i'll try to post what it's like out there.
This post was edited on 6/11/11 at 7:33 am
Posted on 6/11/11 at 7:38 am to Rohan2Reed
quote:
i'm not going to place my bets until a few minutes before. i'll try to post what it's like out there.
I had to make mine last night... Have to work today. FML
Posted on 6/11/11 at 8:24 am to Rohan2Reed
What ya gonna do today R2R?
Posted on 6/11/11 at 8:49 am to lathoroughbred
R2r, let us know about the weather. If it ends up muddy or sloppy, I leave out nehro.
The obvious turf sire for me here is dynaformer, so mud would help bs.
I was up all night coughing and boy let me sleep in, but he took my racing form
as far as the turf race goes, put windward isles in any super or tri plays. I know the girl who used to be his groom, and when he's right he's a damn good horse.
The obvious turf sire for me here is dynaformer, so mud would help bs.
I was up all night coughing and boy let me sleep in, but he took my racing form
as far as the turf race goes, put windward isles in any super or tri plays. I know the girl who used to be his groom, and when he's right he's a damn good horse.
Posted on 6/11/11 at 9:59 am to Aspercel
A muddy track will raise Ruler on Ice's stock.
Posted on 6/11/11 at 10:09 am to Me Bite
The track will be muddy. Raining hard in the NY area now and overnight last night. Messy as hell
By the way in case no ones knows, nobody in NY cares about the Belmont. When I worked 8 miles North of there in Lake Success, we all complained it made the Cross Island too crowded
By the way in case no ones knows, nobody in NY cares about the Belmont. When I worked 8 miles North of there in Lake Success, we all complained it made the Cross Island too crowded
Posted on 6/11/11 at 10:29 am to Me Bite
Really? Wish I had my form to look at... :(
what's he done in the mud?
what's he done in the mud?
Posted on 6/11/11 at 11:04 am to Aspercel
do you need the PPs?
Posted on 6/11/11 at 11:10 am to Aspercel
i need a winner asp
Posted on 6/11/11 at 11:36 am to DBG
Well.... If you want to listen to the boy (he's a trainer) the "easiest exacta ever" is animal kingdom and nehro. I will box at least 3, probably 4 and the track conditions will play a role. I'm not going to decide until I figure out how the earlier races are holding.
R2r you better update me!
R2r you better update me!
Posted on 6/11/11 at 11:40 am to Aspercel
R2R has left the building Aspy! 
Posted on 6/11/11 at 11:45 am to Rohan2Reed
quote:
Rohan2Reed
That was a good writeup, I was considering Brilliant Speed as it was.
Posted on 6/11/11 at 12:52 pm to Aspercel
quote:
what's he done in the mud?
Ran twice on a wet track... Won one and got second in the other one.
ETA- MOH gets screwed if it's muddy... The rail will be sloppy!
This post was edited on 6/11/11 at 12:56 pm
Posted on 6/11/11 at 1:16 pm to Me Bite
I'm heading to the track soon and will pick up another form. Anyone with any earlier race tips let me know.
Cajun diva in the filly futurity at lonestar today (Jansen melancon up) is the only tip I have so far.
Cajun diva in the filly futurity at lonestar today (Jansen melancon up) is the only tip I have so far.
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