- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
When will NFL teams figure out simple math and go for 2?
Posted on 1/19/18 at 9:51 am
Posted on 1/19/18 at 9:51 am
It took the NBA 20+ years to realize 3>2, but they still figured it out.
When will NFL teams realize 2>1. It's even more apparent now with PAT's being moved back. With the old rule, the success rate for PAT's was around 99% (Per google), and it was 94-95% in 2015 and 2016 after moving it back (I can't find 2017 data). Let's assume 95% is the average PAT success rate, that means you only need to convert 47.5% of your 2 point conversions for this strategy to pay dividends. That is a mark that any good offense should easily obtain.
When will NFL teams realize 2>1. It's even more apparent now with PAT's being moved back. With the old rule, the success rate for PAT's was around 99% (Per google), and it was 94-95% in 2015 and 2016 after moving it back (I can't find 2017 data). Let's assume 95% is the average PAT success rate, that means you only need to convert 47.5% of your 2 point conversions for this strategy to pay dividends. That is a mark that any good offense should easily obtain.
24
Posted on 1/19/18 at 9:53 am to Tigerfan56
quote:
When will NFL teams figure out simple math and go for 2?
quote:
it took the NBA 20+ years to realize 3>2
These are absolutely in no way similar comparisons.
Posted on 1/19/18 at 9:53 am to Tigerfan56
Bc when it doesn’t work you lose your job. You don’t lose your job for kicking XPs.
Posted on 1/19/18 at 9:53 am to Tigerfan56
it will happen eventually, it might take a Belichick or some other very decorated coach to start doing it first though.
Same goes for going for it on 4th every time it's 4th and 5 or less and you're on at least your own 40.
Same goes for going for it on 4th every time it's 4th and 5 or less and you're on at least your own 40.
Posted on 1/19/18 at 9:54 am to Tigerfan56
why dont you finish your research and provide us with the success rate of 2 pt conversions in 2015/16 and see if it is actually over 47.5%
Posted on 1/19/18 at 9:55 am to Tigerfan56
I'm still on the fence about it. Yeah, when averaging every team in the league over the course of a season it works out to 47%.
But in an individual game the odds may be much different.
But in an individual game the odds may be much different.
Posted on 1/19/18 at 9:55 am to Draconian Sanctions
These work in theory over the long term. An individual game is not long term, extremely small sample size. It happens to not work 3 or 4 times, you lose the game because of it and you get fired. The end.
Posted on 1/19/18 at 9:57 am to Spider John
quote:
why dont you finish your research and provide us with the success rate of 2 pt conversions in 2015/16 and see if it is actually over 47.5%
It's slightly over. But that's the average. For certain teams, it is way over. In a Aaron Rodgers vs Drew Brees dual, there is no reason for them to be kicking PATs unless its situational. Like to go up 3 late.
Posted on 1/19/18 at 9:58 am to genro
quote:
These work in theory over the long term. An individual game is not long term, extremely small sample size. It happens to not work 3 or 4 times, you lose the game because of it and you get fired. The end.
if Belichick did it he wouldn't get fired
If Belichick did it and over a 2-3 year period it worked, everyone else would start doing it too and it would become the new conventional wisdom.
Posted on 1/19/18 at 9:59 am to Tigerfan56
2 point conversions were down to 42% in 2017.
Posted on 1/19/18 at 10:01 am to Tigerfan56
You also understand that Defenses will adjust to this philosophy making it harder to get? While it may make sense theoretically, it practicality it doesn't.
This post was edited on 1/19/18 at 10:03 am
Posted on 1/19/18 at 10:01 am to Spider John
quote:
why dont you finish your research and provide us with the success rate of 2 pt conversions in 2015/16 and see if it is actually over 47.5%
From what I can find the league average was right above 47.5%, making it theoretically the correct strategy regardless.
But I wasn't entirely concerned with league averages because any good offense should easily hit that mark, and the league average isn't representative of a good offensive team (whereas there is much less variation when it comes to different team's kickers).
This would be a strategy that would make a good offense even more valuable.
Posted on 1/19/18 at 10:04 am to Draconian Sanctions
quote:
Same goes for going for it on 4th every time it's 4th and 5 or less and you're on at least your own 40.
This is what I don't get. Especially because it allows you to change how you call plays on 3rd down.
Posted on 1/19/18 at 10:05 am to sms151t
quote:
You also understand that Defenses will adjust to this philosophy making it harder to get?
You think they aren't doing everything to make it as difficult as possible already?
Posted on 1/19/18 at 10:05 am to Tigerfan56
Coaches are going in the opposite direction. After a spike in 2 point conversions the last few years, attempts have dropped to about what they were before the extra point rule change.
Posted on 1/19/18 at 10:05 am to Master of Sinanju
quote:
2 point conversions were down to 42% in 2017.
I would question if the percentage was affected by the pressure of going for 2. It's typically done when teams are desperate to catch up or when they're right on the line of tying a game late in the 2nd half.
Might be easier to convert knowing that you're going for 2 because it's normal and not because if you don't get it, you lose.
Posted on 1/19/18 at 10:06 am to Boomshockalocka
quote:it's that simple.
Bc when it doesn’t work you lose your job. You don’t lose your job for kicking XPs.
Lots of decisions are made because of job security, not because it's the right thing to do.
Posted on 1/19/18 at 10:07 am to Mac
You think they are? 2 point plays are something that is not something you work on daily. If they become that much more you then work on it. Teams do not practice Goalline daily, especially defenses.
This post was edited on 1/19/18 at 10:09 am
Posted on 1/19/18 at 10:09 am to Tigerfan56
quote:
Let's assume 95% is the average PAT success rate, that means you only need to convert 47.5% of your 2 point conversions for this strategy to pay dividends. That is a mark that any good offense should easily obtain
Do you honestly think teams don't have a guy in a basement somewhere looking at advanced statistics to determine whether its beneficial or not? It's 2018, the numbers have been run, and it's obviously not beneficial or they'd already be doing it.
Posted on 1/19/18 at 10:15 am to Zanzibaw
quote:
and it's obviously not beneficial or they'd already be doing it.
def not that simple bc if it doesnt work then Joey from Ronkonkoma will be on the horn with Francessa for hours calling for Bowles to be fired.
Page 1 of 4
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News