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re: What in the hell was Larry Fedora doing?
Posted on 12/6/15 at 10:39 am to TheMightyTerrier
Posted on 12/6/15 at 10:39 am to TheMightyTerrier
quote:And if you wait till the last possession and don't get it, the game is over rand you have no time to make up for that 2 pt conversion missed, so that defeats the entire purpose. You thought you were down 1 possession, but like I said, there's better than a 50% chance you're actually still down 2 possessions. It's always good to have information sooner rather than later.
No it wouldn't. You want to keep the point spread to as few possessions as possible for as long as possible. If you start going for two early and don't get them(and with two point conversion percentage being significantly lower than XP conversion percentage), then you are forcing yourself to have to find more possessions.
1
Posted on 12/6/15 at 11:15 am to shel311
quote:
And if you wait till the last possession and don't get it, the game is over rand you have no time to make up for that 2 pt conversion missed, so that defeats the entire purpose. You thought you were down 1 possession, but like I said, there's better than a 50% chance you're actually still down 2 possessions. It's always good to have information sooner rather than later.
Exactly. People keep saying that if you go for it early and miss it that now you have to find an extra possession, but at least you CAN find an extra possession. If you wait until the end and miss then you still need yo find an extra possession, except there's no time left to do anything about it.
I do think the psychology of the other team's play-calling is an interesting point though.
Posted on 12/6/15 at 11:23 am to wish i was tebow
quote:Excluding specific situations, a statistician would be wrong to advocate for a 2-PT attempt.
You realize that if teams had statisticians they were go for it on 4th and go for 2pts way more often right?
There is about a 95% conversion rate for PAT's and about a 41% conversation rate for 2-PTers. So you would expect .95 points for every PAT but only .82 points for 2-PTers.
A statistician that advocated for -.13 PTs would not be doing a very good job.
Posted on 12/6/15 at 11:23 am to arobbi3
quote:But you can go down by 2 scores when it's too late to make that comeback?
Ding Ding Ding, We have a winner. You can't go for two early and go down by two scores. Any chance you have ends with a failed attempt. Why not wait until the last moment?
Why would wait for the last moment to learn you actually need 1 more possession? Answer seems simple, now you don't have time to get that extra possession.
It comes down to, would you rather know you're down 2 possessions earlier or later. Would you rather find out after you miss that 2 pt conversion with 5, 8, or 10 minutes left. Or would you prefer to find out after the 2nd TD with 20, 60, or 90 seconds left.
Posted on 12/6/15 at 11:24 am to TallMan
quote:This
People keep saying that if you go for it early and miss it that now you have to find an extra possession, but at least you CAN find an extra possession. If you wait until the end and miss then you still need yo find an extra possession, except there's no time left to do anything about it.
Posted on 12/6/15 at 11:33 am to shel311
quote:I think the early 2-PT attempt would only useful when the estimated # of possessions remaining was ~ the number of TDs needed.
But you can go down by 2 scores when it's too late to make that comeback?
Posted on 12/6/15 at 1:05 pm to TJG210
Forget that
why did he go for 2 on his first TD. That is proof he's not ready to be a top notch HEAD COACH
why did he go for 2 on his first TD. That is proof he's not ready to be a top notch HEAD COACH
Posted on 12/6/15 at 1:22 pm to TJG210
He didn't have a chart
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