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What in the hell was Larry Fedora doing?
Posted on 12/6/15 at 1:46 am
Posted on 12/6/15 at 1:46 am
Twice late in the game the goofball scores a TD to go down by 13, and both times he kicks the extra point to make it a 12 point game. Why in the hell not go for 2, especially on the later score?
7
Posted on 12/6/15 at 1:59 am to TJG210
The only things I can think of right now to not play the math.
1) he didn't want to keep chasing the 2pt conversion they missed at the beginning (which is dumb but hey)
2) he didn't want to kill any momentum built after a TD score, which I can sort of get on an emotional level.
I'm trying to brainstorm some other possibilities but it's hard.
1) he didn't want to keep chasing the 2pt conversion they missed at the beginning (which is dumb but hey)
2) he didn't want to kill any momentum built after a TD score, which I can sort of get on an emotional level.
I'm trying to brainstorm some other possibilities but it's hard.
Posted on 12/6/15 at 2:28 am to TJG210
He went for 2 on their first TD and didn't get it
Posted on 12/6/15 at 2:53 am to TJG210
Maybe the risk of a pick 6 or the like? Maybe to reduce the pressure on his kicker to make extra points later on
Posted on 12/6/15 at 3:27 am to TJG210
Well, they ended up losing by 8, meaning he didn't attempt too few two-point conversions. He made the right call both times.
Posted on 12/6/15 at 3:58 am to ballscaster
quote:This, going for two in relatively close games with a decent amount of time left is stupid. I'm amazed at how many times I see coaches score to go up 1, 5, or 12 and then go for two. I think each team should have a statistician on staff to break down basic decision making based on probabilities.
Well, they ended up losing by 8, meaning he didn't attempt too few two-point conversions. He made the right call both times.
Posted on 12/6/15 at 8:12 am to TJG210
Conventional wisdom says to wait until the last possible moment to chase points. By continuing go kick XPs he guaranteed he would have a one score game. If he went for two and failed on the last TD, he would be down by 9 and it's a two score game.
Posted on 12/6/15 at 8:47 am to TheMightyTerrier
quote:wait, what? Logic would dictate the opposite.
Conventional wisdom says to wait until the last possible moment to chase points. By continuing go kick XPs he guaranteed he would have a one score game. If he went for two and failed on the last TD, he would be down by 9 and it's a two score game.
I'll preface this by stating it probably didn't matter much in last night's specific examples cause UNC scored with like 1 minute left and kicked the extra point to go down 8.
But let's assume there was 6-7 minutes left, how in the world does conventional wisdom dictate on going for 2 later? The end result of that is often times being down 8,playing like you're down 1 possession when in reality you're more than 50% likely to be down 2 possessions. Since you play like you're down 1 possession, you score very late, miss the 2pt conversion and now you don't have enough time to make up for it.
If you're down 15 with 5-10 minutes to play, you go for 2 on the 1st TD so you can obtain more information earlier and you know for certain whether you're down 7 or 9, so you know if you need to rush things if you're down 9, or you can be a bit more relaxed in your approach down 7.
Posted on 12/6/15 at 8:52 am to shel311
quote:
If you're down 15 with 5-10 minutes to play, you go for 2 on the 1st TD so you can obtain more information earlier and you know for certain whether you're down 7 or 9, so you know if you need to rush things if you're down 9, or you can be a bit more relaxed in your approach down 7.
Exactly the opposite.
Posted on 12/6/15 at 8:53 am to TheMightyTerrier
quote:.
Conventional wisdom says to wait until the last possible moment to chase points. By continuing go kick XPs he guaranteed he would have a one score game. If he went for two and failed on the last TD, he would be down
Ding Ding Ding, We have a winner. You can't go for two early and go down by two scores. Any chance you have ends with a failed attempt. Why not wait until the last moment?
Posted on 12/6/15 at 8:56 am to shel311
What you typed is the exact opposite of what coaches actually do.
Posted on 12/6/15 at 9:05 am to TheMightyTerrier
Conventional wisdom says to wait until the last possible moment to chase points.
Conventional wisdom is often wrong.
Conventional wisdom is often wrong.
Posted on 12/6/15 at 9:07 am to shel311
I tend to agree with you. If I miss the 2 pt. conversion, I'd rather have time left to rectify the situation instead of the game just being over. The justifications I've seen are usually "prolonging the game" which is just dumb, and that the momentum the offense has from scoring at the very end combined with the defense being flustered leads to a higher success rate on the 2 pt. conversion. I've never seen any stats to back that one up though, and I'm not sure I buy the logic. I'd just prefer to know if I'm going to have to score again.
Posted on 12/6/15 at 9:20 am to shel311
Shel, I understand your logic but I've got to disagree with you here. Keeping it a one score game is not just about the offense. Sure, missing a 2-pt conversion and being down 9 with 6 minutes to play may help you plan for your team, but you lose a ton of momentum and the opponent has the opportunity to be much more conservative in hopes of shortening the game.
Keeping it a one wrote game puts significantly more pressure on the opponent when they're trying to run out the clock. They're more likely to be aggressive and/or make a poor decision considering they're not out of the woods yet. It also keeps your team in the game emotionally which definitely helps.
Keeping it a one wrote game puts significantly more pressure on the opponent when they're trying to run out the clock. They're more likely to be aggressive and/or make a poor decision considering they're not out of the woods yet. It also keeps your team in the game emotionally which definitely helps.
Posted on 12/6/15 at 9:21 am to TheMightyTerrier
quote:Right. With the benefit of hindsight, we're talking about a game that's in the third quarter, and 68 points have been scored. For a near ping pong match like this, you don't chase points like that just yet. As it turns out, Fedora needed his defense to hold Clemson to a field goal on one of their scoring drives, and they did just that, making it a 15-point game, setting up your two-possession comeback just fine if it's to happen.
Conventional wisdom says to wait until the last possible moment to chase points. By continuing go kick XPs he guaranteed he would have a one score game. If he went for two and failed on the last TD, he would be down by 9 and it's a two score game.
Now, I could understand going for two a little more in say, last nights B1GCG. If it's 17-6 in the third quarter, and you score making it 17-12, maybe you go for two there because you probably aren't going to be that close to the end zone again, and trusting your defense to tighten up is a better gamble in this game than in last night's ACCCG.
This all reminds me of the LSU Ole Miss game in 2010. End 3rd, Ole Miss leads 24-23.
LSU scores, making it 24-29, goes for two, fails.
Ole Miss scores, making it 30-29, goes for two, fails.
LSU scores, making it 30-35, goes for two, fails.
Ole Miss scores, making it 36-35, goes for two, fails.
LSU scores, making it 36-41, goes for two, converts, wins 36-43.
This post was edited on 12/6/15 at 9:22 am
Posted on 12/6/15 at 9:54 am to beaverfever
quote:
This, going for two in relatively close games with a decent amount of time left is stupid. I'm amazed at how many times I see coaches score to go up 1, 5, or 12 and then go for two. I think each team should have a statistician on staff to break down basic decision making based on probabilities.
You realize that if teams had statisticians they were go for it on 4th and go for 2pts way more often right?
Posted on 12/6/15 at 9:57 am to shel311
No it wouldn't. You want to keep the point spread to as few possessions as possible for as long as possible. If you start going for two early and don't get them(and with two point conversion percentage being significantly lower than XP conversion percentage), then you are forcing yourself to have to find more possessions.
I want to make it clear though I am talking about last night where you are down 15, 22, 29 or some variant where 8 would be the final possession difference. If you are down by more than that, then I could see the argument that you need to go for two to create fewer possessions. It all depends on the situation.
I want to make it clear though I am talking about last night where you are down 15, 22, 29 or some variant where 8 would be the final possession difference. If you are down by more than that, then I could see the argument that you need to go for two to create fewer possessions. It all depends on the situation.
Posted on 12/6/15 at 10:35 am to CherryGarciaMan
quote:So you prefer to NOT know if you're actually 1 or 2 possessions down?
Exactly the opposite.
Posted on 12/6/15 at 10:36 am to FootballNostradamus
quote:I'm aware.
What you typed is the exact opposite of what coaches actually do.
Coaches also punt on 4th and 1 or 2 from the opponent's 40-45 hardline sometimes.
Just because they do it doesn't make it the correct decision.
Posted on 12/6/15 at 10:37 am to slackster
quote:I don't think you should not do it because of this, but those are fair points.
Shel, I understand your logic but I've got to disagree with you here. Keeping it a one score game is not just about the offense. Sure, missing a 2-pt conversion and being down 9 with 6 minutes to play may help you plan for your team, but you lose a ton of momentum and the opponent has the opportunity to be much more conservative in hopes of shortening the game.
Keeping it a one wrote game puts significantly more pressure on the opponent when they're trying to run out the clock. They're more likely to be aggressive and/or make a poor decision considering they're not out of the woods yet. It also keeps your team in the game emotionally which definitely helps.
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