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Message
re: Week 1 NFL Betting Thread
Posted on 9/7/12 at 7:53 pm to blades8088
Posted on 9/7/12 at 7:53 pm to blades8088
2 team teaser $66 to win $60 Saints -1.5 Lions -2 
1
Posted on 9/7/12 at 9:58 pm to tigerNation09
quote:
2 team teaser $66 to win $60 Saints -1.5 Lions -2
Honestly, I don't see how you could lose with this. Both teams at home, against lesser opponents.
Posted on 9/7/12 at 10:00 pm to dcrews
You in or you out
Posted on 9/7/12 at 10:02 pm to tigerNation09
I already have a teaser for them.
Saints (-2.5)
Detroit (-3.0)
Saints (-2.5)
Detroit (-3.0)
Posted on 9/7/12 at 10:03 pm to dcrews
Whatever I win tmrw will be on the teaser
Posted on 9/7/12 at 10:25 pm to tigerNation09
New England just dropped to (-4.5). 
Posted on 9/8/12 at 3:54 am to dcrews
Minor panic attack averted. I got the Texans -7 about a month and a half ago and have not been able to find the ticket for a couple weeks. It was under my chair.
I know, I know, csb.
I know, I know, csb.
Posted on 9/8/12 at 5:58 am to dcrews
My picks:
Saints -1, Lions -1.5 6pt teaser
Carolina -2.5
New England -6.5
Atlanta -1.5
Saints -1, Lions -1.5 6pt teaser
Carolina -2.5
New England -6.5
Atlanta -1.5
Posted on 9/8/12 at 7:53 am to blades8088
Svdtiger sounds like somebody worth listening to.
I hope hell continue to post his plays.
I hope hell continue to post his plays.
This post was edited on 9/8/12 at 7:54 am
Posted on 9/8/12 at 7:57 am to dcrews
quote:
f NE is (-7.5), he's saying don't take it, implying that Vegas is goading people into writing off that half a point as covere
No that's he opposite of what he's saying.
Stop thinking that laying the extra half point over a key number is so crucial - you're missing the forest for the trees.
This post was edited on 9/8/12 at 7:58 am
Posted on 9/8/12 at 8:50 am to MinnesotaTiger
I guess I'm not understanding then.
In cases like New England and New Orleans, I'm quite confident they will cover any half points over a key number, but when the game doesn't seem that obvious, why wouldn't you wait for that half point to drop?
In cases like New England and New Orleans, I'm quite confident they will cover any half points over a key number, but when the game doesn't seem that obvious, why wouldn't you wait for that half point to drop?
Posted on 9/8/12 at 9:00 am to dcrews
There's no pat answer I guess - gambling philosophies are akin to various religious sects. What he was saying resonates with me obviously depending on the game it might be flat wrong.
Posted on 9/8/12 at 9:22 am to MinnesotaTiger
He's saying don't put all your stock in the half point either way on a key number. Vegas will keep the spread at -6.5 knowing it will make the bet look good for the favorite, so they want you to bet the favorite. They will keep at -7.5 to make the underdog look more favorable.
Posted on 9/8/12 at 9:36 am to bamafan425
Still hard to know what the big wigs are own until almost game time. I mean public could be 80% and rlm happen but that just being moving the line for the bigs. I have a hard time seeing sharps not taking the pats. Maybe they are just moving the line.
Posted on 9/8/12 at 9:42 am to VegasPro
I agree. I'm not touching the game. I'm a Titans fan and my play would be the Patriots. So I'm off it.
Posted on 9/8/12 at 11:49 am to bamafan425
Email pick from statfox is 3-0. They were big on cinci and are on Stanford and the over.
I added both those. Stanford -14.5 o56 1* eavh
I added both those. Stanford -14.5 o56 1* eavh
This post was edited on 9/8/12 at 11:51 am
Posted on 9/8/12 at 12:26 pm to bamafan425
quote:
He's saying don't put all your stock in the half point either way on a key number. Vegas will keep the spread at -6.5 knowing it will make the bet look good for the favorite, so they want you to bet the favorite. They will keep at -7.5 to make the underdog look more favorable.
well put. I was on my cell phone so was frustrated I couldn't articulate it this well.
Posted on 9/8/12 at 12:29 pm to VegasPro
quote:
I have a hard time seeing sharps not taking the pats.
I hate putting myself out there because it is quite possible that NE will win this game comfortably and the Saints will lose all my money and I'll wind up looking like a jackass
However, with that said I think you guys being so huge on the Pats is probably the worst bet I'm seeing this week (tied with everybody being so high on Seattle. I like AZ to win outright). Like I said, I have no dog in this fight and I hope ya'll win for monetary reasons.
I just feel like the Titans and Cardinals are both the epitome of live dogs. Scrappy near-playoff teams from last season who both have top 10 defenses (AZ has top 3 special teams as well) and are at home.
This post was edited on 9/8/12 at 12:31 pm
Posted on 9/8/12 at 2:31 pm to MinnesotaTiger
They can have my money if the saints lose. The dome is going to be absolutely ridiculous even more now that the ruling was overturned for smith and vilma
Posted on 9/8/12 at 7:07 pm to MinnesotaTiger
quote:
However, with that said I think you guys being so huge on the Pats is probably the worst bet I'm seeing this week
Pats @ -4.5....there's just no reason NOT to take them. I'm not saying they will win by 2 TD's (although it wouldn't surprise me if they did), but they should be able to cover a TD and certainly 4.5 points. I think too much is being made about Super Bowl losers not faring well in week 1.
And there's a reason New England IS a playoff team and a team like Tennessee is a "scrappy runner up". Pats are better. I know the o-line is bad, but the pats passing game isn't predicated on deep throws or routes that take forever to develope. They make their money with the TE's and welker-type receivers on short and intermediate routes. I don't think that o-line issue will be as big of a factor as it's made out to be.
This post was edited on 9/8/12 at 7:09 pm
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