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re: Unofficial 2017 Australian Open Thread.

Posted on 1/27/17 at 12:21 am to
Posted by FootballNostradamus
Member since Nov 2009
20509 posts
Posted on 1/27/17 at 12:21 am to
quote:

And this is basically the story of this rivalry, right? That is, one of the fundamental things that everyone seems to sense about these players is that Nadal has limitless tenacity, never gives up, gets stronger as the match progresses, and loves the fight for its own sake, while Federer, for all his sublime talent, can turn confoundingly soft on the rare occasions when the momentum turns against him. Just every now and again, there’s a Strange Federer Softness. Sometimes you get the sense that he feels he’s proved his point in the early games and expects the rest of the match to fall into line out of courtesy. And if it doesn’t, if things don’t work out as a logical extension of those first few games, he’s taken aback. It’s not that he lacks the mental strength to compete, more that he loses his decision-making ability because he’s genuinely perplexed. He’s like a ship in becalmed waters.


Never seen that before. That's as good a take on a genuinely difficult to explain sports concept as there is. Fantastic piece of writing.
Posted by MidnightVibe
Member since Feb 2015
7896 posts
Posted on 1/27/17 at 12:57 am to
quote:

Never seen that before. That's as good a take on a genuinely difficult to explain sports concept as there is. Fantastic piece of writing.


RIP Grantland
Posted by MidnightVibe
Member since Feb 2015
7896 posts
Posted on 1/27/17 at 1:08 am to
quote:

See, I'm not so sure about this, and that's not to be a slight towards Federer's talent, because he is the greatest of all time... But a healthy Nadal is more talented than him and had his health not failed him, Nadal would've been the goat.

That's what makes this discussion so fun. Fed is the undisputed greatest tennis player in history, but Nadal had his number.




Have you read Rafa's book? Uncle Toni frequently reminded him that Federer was more talented than him.

I do see your point, though, and my response is that they aren't talented in the exact same kind of ways, and so who you think is more talented depends on how you weight their physical gifts.

I think Rafa might be the best raw athlete to ever play the game of tennis. This is a guy who was the best striker in Spain for his age, and then quit soccer to play tennis. He's off the charts athletic.

He lacks the shotmaking ease of Federer, though, and he also isn't a natural server, which is important. If I'm doing the calculus on this, I think I'd say Federer is the more talented, but, again, that conclusion is more than a smidgeon semantical and a discussion on the topic is more constructive after drilling down to their individual physical gifts.

But anybody who think Rafa is just some talentless hack who relied on tenacity and grit to win 14 majors is a goddamn fool. Rafael Nadal is hyper-talented by any definition. He won a goddamn national under 12 tennis tournament when he was 8. When he was 8!
Posted by MidnightVibe
Member since Feb 2015
7896 posts
Posted on 1/27/17 at 1:17 am to
I'm gonna put in a sprinkle play on Grigs. I'll be perfectly content to lose it, but I do think +240 is too high.
Posted by MidnightVibe
Member since Feb 2015
7896 posts
Posted on 1/27/17 at 1:30 am to
quote:

Really the only way you can say this is on the baseline. Federer is more talented than Nadal in every other aspect of the game including serve, return of serve, short balls, at the net, actually everything other than grinding your opponent into the ground.



I don't know that Federer is a better volleyer than Rafa. And I definitely don't know that Federer has a better return of serve.

Federer has a clearly superior serve and the best forehand I've ever seen. Rafa has a better backhand by a comfortable margin.

Rafa's adherence to ground and pound is more psychological than physical. I've advocated for Rafa to switch over to a full-blown serve and volley game. He'd be great at it. But he'll never do that. During a given point, Rafa is thinking "stay in the point". That's his approach to the game. Switching over to a mindset of "finish the point quickly" isn't trivial for a guy who is clearly a creature of habit.
Posted by bayoucracka
Member since Sep 2015
6898 posts
Posted on 1/27/17 at 1:34 am to
This is crazy. The Westgate currently has Grigor at +280, while 5Dimes has Rafa at -255. Depending on each book's limits, there's free money to be had. It's not worth the effort for a small-timer like me.

I'm on Over 3.5 sets at -185, and I'll probably take some Grigor ML as well.

Side note: Rafa is -135 for the potential matchup with Roger.
Posted by MidnightVibe
Member since Feb 2015
7896 posts
Posted on 1/27/17 at 2:38 am to
quote:

This is crazy. The Westgate currently has Grigor at +280, while 5Dimes has Rafa at -255. Depending on each book's limits, there's free money to be had. It's not worth the effort for a small-timer like me.



Yup, that's what pro gamblers live for.

Where did you get the westgate odds from?
Posted by bayoucracka
Member since Sep 2015
6898 posts
Posted on 1/27/17 at 2:41 am to
LINK

No idea how often it's updated, but the offshore odds were nowhere near +280 at any point, so it's not a timing issue.
This post was edited on 1/27/17 at 2:44 am
Posted by bayoucracka
Member since Sep 2015
6898 posts
Posted on 1/27/17 at 2:46 am to
I'm rolling with Koenig on the Watch ESPN broadcast again.

Someone actually called a time violation on Rafa.
This post was edited on 1/27/17 at 3:44 am
Posted by UltimateHog
Thailand
Member since Dec 2011
68531 posts
Posted on 1/27/17 at 3:47 am to
I did not expect this 2nd set to go this way.
Posted by bayoucracka
Member since Sep 2015
6898 posts
Posted on 1/27/17 at 4:10 am to
I'm waiting for Grigor to hit an underhand serve when Rafa stands back by the wall.
Posted by UltimateHog
Thailand
Member since Dec 2011
68531 posts
Posted on 1/27/17 at 4:18 am to
That game

This set
Posted by jrtplaya21
Member since Jan 2013
3294 posts
Posted on 1/27/17 at 4:20 am to
Posted by UltimateHog
Thailand
Member since Dec 2011
68531 posts
Posted on 1/27/17 at 4:27 am to
Damn, I wanted a tiebreak.

Buckle in for the ride now, hello early morning hours.
Posted by bayoucracka
Member since Sep 2015
6898 posts
Posted on 1/27/17 at 4:28 am to
Good lord what a set
Posted by Hot Carl
Prayers up for 3
Member since Dec 2005
62073 posts
Posted on 1/27/17 at 4:50 am to
Nice break
Posted by Bench McElroy
Member since Nov 2009
34684 posts
Posted on 1/27/17 at 5:26 am to
Whoever wins this set will end up winning this match in four.
Posted by jrtplaya21
Member since Jan 2013
3294 posts
Posted on 1/27/17 at 5:37 am to
Posted by UltimateHog
Thailand
Member since Dec 2011
68531 posts
Posted on 1/27/17 at 5:37 am to
rafa boom
Posted by little billy
Orange County, CA
Member since May 2015
8469 posts
Posted on 1/27/17 at 5:38 am to
Looking good
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