re: The Unofficial 2018 Non-GS Tennis Thread

Does he really have much to fear though? You could argue that Cilic is the 2nd or 3rd best grass player, and Roger had him crying last year.

He is due for one of those years when he loses to a Tsonga or Berdych type in the round of 16.

I feel like Chilly v Nick is a Wimbledon final/semi preview. Nice to see Nole playing well.

MV, do you know of a site that tracks how players perform in regard to the money line over time? For example, if I bet X amount on every Coric match in 2018, how profitable would this have been? I feel like I’ve seen something like this before, but I can’t remember where.

Your post about autoplays and autofades gave me the idea that it might be worth exploring tennis betting on a longer time frame instead of 1 match at a time.

I feel like I find myself saying, “I knew _____ would be good and make a big move up the rankings, but I haven’t made any money from him” too damn often. He could have won 20 of his last 25 matches, but maybe I only bet on 3 of those matches and he went 1-2 in those.

Of course it’s not as simple as just predicting a rise in the rankings. Some players are priced like top-20 players when they are ranked in the 60’s, and sometimes it’s totally justified. But there are always the Goffin and Dzumhur types who fly under the radar and rack up W’s.

On the flip side, if you can see when a guy is falling off a cliff (looking at you, Sock) it’s the same concept. He might be talented enough to burn you once or twice, but over a few weeks or months you will surely profit if you saw the demise coming.

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(looking at you, Sock)

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I just got an alert on my phone that Sock is losing to #316 Brands at Eastborne Qualifying right now. Wow.

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Roger had him crying last year.

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I think both of those guys (last year's memorable display from Cilic notwithstanding) and probably Delpo are big risks for Fed this year, as well as perhaps a floating Djoko and Sam Querrey I would also put in that category. I think if he loses, it's going to be to someone we will say has a game well suited to grass as opposed to a grinder.

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site that tracks how players perform in regard to the money line over time

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Matchstat.com gives a 4- and 52-week bet rating. I'm not sure how they calculate those numbers. Maybe if you dig around the site they explain it somewhere

Cilic underdog to Novak in a best-of-3 is a little surprising.

Coric wins. His performance at the end reminded me of Djoker breaking down Roger in the 2014 and 2015 Wimbledon finals. Roger looks vulnerable, but that's a good couple of weeks of prep. Nine matches, 550 points, and a loss to give him some motivational juice.

Smug ain’t winning wimby

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Smug ain’t winning wimby

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Sadly, I agree with you. I may be premature in so totally discounting him because on this stage intangibles will be huge, but I don't see him making it through the fortnight.

I want to see the draws, but I think the trio of Cilic, Honey Nut and Djoko are to be reckoned with. I think ultimately Honey Nut will step on his own feet, but would make for an interesting tournament if he can make a deep run. I'm very intrigued to see what we get out of Rafa in this one. I would love to see one of the American men make a run but have come not to count on it.