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re: The BCS Rankings if LSU and Oklahoma State both trip up (LONG)
Posted on 11/14/11 at 1:39 pm to Zamoro10
Posted on 11/14/11 at 1:39 pm to Zamoro10
quote:
It seems like Arky is LSU's 2003 Kansas State.
Oklahoma went into that game with everyone telling them it probably wouldn't matter if they lost then of course were promptly whipped.
this is a danger on some teams
I hope this LSU team doesn't fall into that same mindset... so far they have looked pretty good mentally (with the exception of a couple dumb penalties)
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Posted on 11/14/11 at 1:40 pm to Zamoro10
quote:At least publicly that is true. 2007 proved differently, if you recall they were all publicly saying UGA was the best team in the country, or at least they were playing the best football; however, when it came time to vote, the votes went to the winner of the SECCG. I believe that weight would still be there.
Voters have proven not to be hung up by winning your conference.
Posted on 11/14/11 at 1:40 pm to Zamoro10
quote:
But strangely, does that even hurt? Voters have proven not to be hung up by winning your conference...and there's no threat of another loss. And by the previous explanation, LSU would still make due to head to head unless they dropped 7 sports or something crazy.
It does, simply because that could leave either Arkansas or Alabama as SEC Champions at the end of the season.
At that point, either one of those teams would have the argument over us. Especially Arkansas, considering they would have beaten us head-to-head. And I doubt we'd see and all-SEC national championship game with a one-loss conference champion like Oklahoma or Oklahoma State still sitting out there.
Posted on 11/14/11 at 1:46 pm to BayouBengals03
quote:
If LSU loses doesn't win the conference championship, they are done. They'll fall behind Alabama in the BCS
lulz, so you're saying 12-1 LSU who beat 11-1 Bama on the road would be ranked behind Bama. What are you drinking? If this were to happen on a week to week poll then MAYBE, but this is the end of the season poll when voters take everything in consideration. LSU will STILL be ahead in Bama in the human polls AND the computers.
Posted on 11/14/11 at 1:52 pm to slackster
Thanks slackster. 
I've been waiting for this thread since the end of the Bama game.
Oklahoma's loss will weigh on the voter's minds, but so will the LSU victories over Oregon and Bama. They will be casting their vote either to give Oklahoma a shot at LSU or give one of the other teams another chance.
I think enough voters will decide against a rematch and give Oklahoma the nod. Let's see what they can do.
I've been waiting for this thread since the end of the Bama game.
Oklahoma's loss will weigh on the voter's minds, but so will the LSU victories over Oregon and Bama. They will be casting their vote either to give Oklahoma a shot at LSU or give one of the other teams another chance.
I think enough voters will decide against a rematch and give Oklahoma the nod. Let's see what they can do.
Posted on 11/14/11 at 1:53 pm to TigerWoody
It is actually conceivable for LUS to lose to Arky, Arky jump Bama, but not LSU, and have arky in the SECCG. Then, Arky loses to UGA and LSU still goes on to the NC. The SECOND tie-breaker could send Arky to Atlanta even though LSU would likely be #2 in the BCS.
Another thing to remember is that voters take the final regular-season poll much more seriously. That is why LSU jumped VT and UGA in 2007. If that would have been a mid-season poll, LSU would not have made that move. Voters will be conscious of what team goes ahead of the other. I think it will be very difficult for most voters to put LSU behind either Oregon and/or Bama when the dust settles. My hope is that they are equally as conscious with the November 27th polls, since they could be deciding LSU/BAMA/ARKY's fate.
Another thing to remember is that voters take the final regular-season poll much more seriously. That is why LSU jumped VT and UGA in 2007. If that would have been a mid-season poll, LSU would not have made that move. Voters will be conscious of what team goes ahead of the other. I think it will be very difficult for most voters to put LSU behind either Oregon and/or Bama when the dust settles. My hope is that they are equally as conscious with the November 27th polls, since they could be deciding LSU/BAMA/ARKY's fate.
Posted on 11/14/11 at 1:54 pm to slackster
quote:
slackster
The only area you didn't cover that I see is a possibility is LSU-Arky-Bama being ranked in that order in the final rankings.
I'm pretty certain LSU would still be the highest of the 3 especially with its computer rankings, BUT what if Arky slides past Bama after an impressive win against LSU? That would put Arky in the SECCG.
Before people say NO WAY Arky slides past Bama because Bama beat them, remember this is a three way tie and however u rank it you will have a team that beat another one ranked behind it for sure.
ETA: of course your answer is right above my post
This post was edited on 11/14/11 at 1:56 pm
Posted on 11/14/11 at 1:57 pm to slackster
quote:THIS is the key to all of it. LSU just needs to win to spare all of us this cluster.
they could be deciding LSU/BAMA/ARKY's fate.
Posted on 11/14/11 at 2:10 pm to castorinho
I just don't see Arky passing up Bama in the human polls, and LSU will still be higher than all three in the computers, so I believe LSU and Bama will be the top two and LSU gets the nod.
For Arky to make it to the SECCG, they will need to pass up Bama on the vast majority of vote, and I do not think that will happen. To put it simply, I do not thin LSU will or can fall behind both Bama and Arky, nor do I think Arky can pass up Bama. I think Bama is in the most trouble, honestly. I think Bama will pass up LSU in the BCS for that week, but LSU will be ahead of Arky and an LSU win in the SECCG propels LSU ahead of Bama and into the NC. We get to ruin Bama's NC hopes twice in one season haha.
Also, the more I think about it, the more I believe the OU-OSU winner is in the NC regardless. Bama may have too much ground to make up in the computers. In fact, it is possible that Oklahoma could win and be ranked as low as 4th in the human polls, but still play in the NC. (Note that they would not be #4 on all ballots, just #4 in relative points and thus have the #4 ranking behind Bama and Oregon)
For Arky to make it to the SECCG, they will need to pass up Bama on the vast majority of vote, and I do not think that will happen. To put it simply, I do not thin LSU will or can fall behind both Bama and Arky, nor do I think Arky can pass up Bama. I think Bama is in the most trouble, honestly. I think Bama will pass up LSU in the BCS for that week, but LSU will be ahead of Arky and an LSU win in the SECCG propels LSU ahead of Bama and into the NC. We get to ruin Bama's NC hopes twice in one season haha.
Also, the more I think about it, the more I believe the OU-OSU winner is in the NC regardless. Bama may have too much ground to make up in the computers. In fact, it is possible that Oklahoma could win and be ranked as low as 4th in the human polls, but still play in the NC. (Note that they would not be #4 on all ballots, just #4 in relative points and thus have the #4 ranking behind Bama and Oregon)
Posted on 11/14/11 at 2:22 pm to slackster
quote:
Also, the more I think about it, the more I believe the OU-OSU winner is in the NC regardless. Bama may have too much ground to make up in the computers.
I kind of agree.
Just out of curiosity, I've been thinking that the only scenario in which Bama has a shot to stay above Oklahoma if they beat Oklahoma St and neither of those teams lose another game is that:
1) Texas Tech loses out badly to Missouri and Baylor. This could sway more undecided "best team" voters to keep them #4 behind Alabama and Oregon. Would it affect Oklahoma in the computers though?
2) Of course, Oregon needs to win out to take poll points from Oklahoma.
3) Florida needs to beat Florida St -- Again could this make much difference in the computers?
Posted on 11/14/11 at 2:30 pm to wm72
The computers are more inclined to reward your wins than they are to punish your losses. I think Alabama is better off with Penn State winning out than they are with Texas Tech losing out. The Florida game helps Bama, but not by much. That said, the margin will be so close that it could have a difference. Within the next day or so, I am going to update my computer poll and run some hypotheticals to see what Bama needs.
Posted on 11/14/11 at 2:30 pm to wm72
quote:
1) Texas Tech loses out badly to Missouri and Baylor. This could sway more undecided "best team" voters to keep them #4 behind Alabama and Oregon.
Yea
quote:
Would it affect Oklahoma in the computers though?
No, you have to remember OU beat those two teams; while the loss would look worse to the computers the win against those two teams would look "better" and pretty much compensating. The main issue would be with the voters.
quote:
3) Florida needs to beat Florida St -- Again could this make much difference in the computers?
It will have an impact on OU's and Bama's ratings....also slightly affect Oregon's (very slightly), but idk if it will be enough to be the deciding factor.
Pretty sure the rankings would be OU-Bama-Oregon in the computers.
Posted on 11/14/11 at 2:32 pm to slackster
quote:
I think Bama is in the most trouble, honestly.
I agree, Bama needs LSU to fall to third (relative order) behind both them and Arky that's way more unlikely than Arky passing Bama in the rankings.
Posted on 11/14/11 at 2:41 pm to slackster
The computers and bcs is meaningless, in the end the voters will look at the entire body of work then decide who they want to vote in for the NC, then drop whoever they don't way down the ballot
Posted on 11/14/11 at 2:47 pm to BayouBengals03
Nevermind, I am reading more.
You also have to consider that wvu might end up being conference champs too. That would mean, right off the bat that LSU has already beaten 2 con champs, while Alabama, Oregon or any one else for that matter has not.
You also have to consider that wvu might end up being conference champs too. That would mean, right off the bat that LSU has already beaten 2 con champs, while Alabama, Oregon or any one else for that matter has not.
Posted on 11/14/11 at 2:48 pm to dreaux
quote:
The computers and bcs is meaningless, in the end the voters will look at the entire body of work then decide who they want to vote in for the NC, then drop whoever they don't way down the ballot
It's only meaningless if the team "they want to vote in for the NC" is the same for everyone.
Posted on 11/14/11 at 2:57 pm to dreaux
Dreaux, you are half-right. The voters will decide who they want to see and drop everyone else below that. You have that part right. What you are not considering, however, is that the voters are subjective and will have multiple combinations of teams between the 174 voters. However, you are wrong about the computers. They will be the most influential because of their objective nature. At the end of the season, when there is tons of data, the computers tend to be very closely correlated and it is much easier for a team to get the same rank in 6 computers than it is to convince 174 voters to vote for a team the same way.
Posted on 11/14/11 at 2:58 pm to molsusports
To see how ridiculous the sargin SOS ranking are, and how much they like the big 12, they have a 5-5 Texas aTm team ranked 9 in their rankings and Georgia at 12. They also have arky at 49! Also bamas SOS is going to take a big hit when they play Georgia southern this week and if penn state keeps losing
Posted on 11/14/11 at 3:00 pm to castorinho
quote:this is true. That's why I had to change my mind lol.
It's only meaningless if the team "they want to vote in for the NC" is the same for everyone.
They clearing thought Florida was more deserving in 06. I also don't see how lsu could get left out if they are picking from a pool of one loss teams and we beat 2 of them on the road.
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