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re: The BCS Rankings if LSU and Oklahoma State both trip up (LONG)

Posted on 11/14/11 at 12:47 pm to
Posted by BayouBengals03
lsu14always
Member since Nov 2007
99999 posts
Posted on 11/14/11 at 12:47 pm to
quote:

First, the human voters are going to have to find a way to collaborate and group their votes

Just like they did in 2007, right?

Many pollsters already think the better team didn't win on November 5th.

If LSU doesn't win the SEC, I don't see us getting into the title game.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91271 posts
Posted on 11/14/11 at 12:49 pm to
quote:

can see staying ahead of Oregon but I wouldn't discount dropping below Bama (considering some pundits still tout them as the best team) if LSU loses by a TD or two.


LSU will probably fall behind Bama, but not far enough behind. Some voters will keep LSU ahead of Bama on their ballots, and that will be enough, because LSU will still be #2 in the computers, and Arkansas will probably slide between LSU and Bama in the computers. Also, if OU beats OSU, the loser will be between LSU and Alabama. That "wedge" will be enough to keep LSU in the SEC Championship and the NC.
Posted by molsusports
Member since Jul 2004
36999 posts
Posted on 11/14/11 at 12:49 pm to
quote:

College football needs a damn playoffs. All this who deserves to be in the title game based on yada, yada, yada is ridiculous. Settle the title on the damn field and do away with all this damn nonsense.



this year is better than many others

even if there are a bunch of one loss teams there are at least head to head results between many of them this year
Posted by Baloo
Formerly MDGeaux
Member since Sep 2003
49645 posts
Posted on 11/14/11 at 12:49 pm to
quote:

I would consider it 55-45 Bama is in with a OSU loss.

I think it's closer to 20%. Bama and OU will be a near dead heat in the human polls and OU will crush them in the computers. I don't see this huge human poll advantage for Bama over a Big 12 Champion OU squad.
Posted by TigerWoody
btwn where I was & where I will be
Member since Dec 2007
11387 posts
Posted on 11/14/11 at 12:50 pm to
quote:

You aren't considering the real possibility of the human voters trying to manufacture the match-up that they want and counteract the computers.
He covered it. In order for the voters to manufacture what you are suggesting would require a very large, substantial majority of the pollsters ALL voting in exactly the same manner, for one or two specific teams with enough computer ranking positioned to overcome LSU's strength of schedule and resume. That would be one helluva conspiracy. Confusion and chaos in the polls works in LSU's favor IF we lose to either Arky or UGA.
Posted by Zamoro10
Member since Jul 2008
14743 posts
Posted on 11/14/11 at 12:50 pm to
quote:

First, the human voters are going to have to find a way to collaborate and group their votes


I don't think the coaches collude. But they probably vote for their coaching buddies or conference ties. Maybe Harris gets together in a smokey room, who knows about that secret society.
Posted by BayouBengals03
lsu14always
Member since Nov 2007
99999 posts
Posted on 11/14/11 at 12:50 pm to
Assuming LSU wins out, I think Oklahoma/Oklahoma State is essentially a semifinal for the national championship.
Posted by TigerWoody
btwn where I was & where I will be
Member since Dec 2007
11387 posts
Posted on 11/14/11 at 12:51 pm to
quote:

Just like they did in 2007, right?
THAT was not nearly what you are talking about this time. Those teams were all very close in computer rankings at the time so just a few voters could sway things.
Posted by BayouBengals03
lsu14always
Member since Nov 2007
99999 posts
Posted on 11/14/11 at 12:52 pm to
quote:

That would be one helluva conspiracy.

It wouldn't be as crazy as it was in 2007, but it would be pretty comparable.

LSU jumped from #7 to #2 after conference championship weekend, IIRC.

Obviously, Missouri and West Virginia both lost, so we really only had to jump 3 spots. But still.
Posted by TigerWoody
btwn where I was & where I will be
Member since Dec 2007
11387 posts
Posted on 11/14/11 at 12:54 pm to
quote:

I can see staying ahead of Oregon but I wouldn't discount dropping below Bama (considering some pundits still tout them as the best team) if LSU loses by a TD or two.

The computers would be a huge obstacle in the way for that to happen.
Posted by TigerWoody
btwn where I was & where I will be
Member since Dec 2007
11387 posts
Posted on 11/14/11 at 12:57 pm to
quote:

slackster
Can I get the link to your computer polls? Very interested.
Posted by molsusports
Member since Jul 2004
36999 posts
Posted on 11/14/11 at 12:59 pm to
quote:


I think it's closer to 20%. Bama and OU will be a near dead heat in the human polls and OU will crush them in the computers. I don't see this huge human poll advantage for Bama over a Big 12 Champion OU squad.


agree on this point
Posted by BayouBengals03
lsu14always
Member since Nov 2007
99999 posts
Posted on 11/14/11 at 1:02 pm to
quote:

Those teams were all very close in computer rankings at the time so just a few voters could sway things.

Yes, but it wasn't just a few voters.

In week 14 of the 2007 poll, LSU was #7 with zero first place votes. In week 15 of the 2007 poll (after WVU and Mizzou both lost), LSU was #2 with 11 first place votes, while Georgia, Virginia Tech, and Kansas (who were all ahead of LSU in the poll the week before), all received zero first place votes.

It's not unprecedented for the voters to shift their rankings harshly in favor of one team, even if it can be argued that team was the most deserving team to play in the title game.
This post was edited on 11/14/11 at 1:04 pm
Posted by Sid in Lakeshore
Member since Oct 2008
41956 posts
Posted on 11/14/11 at 1:03 pm to
Interesting Thread.....
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91271 posts
Posted on 11/14/11 at 1:10 pm to
quote:

TigerWoody


I am at work at the moment, but I will try and get that info to you as soon as I can.
Posted by Cap Crunch
Fire Alleva
Member since Dec 2010
54189 posts
Posted on 11/14/11 at 1:11 pm to
What are the chances LSU actually makes the SEC championship if they lose to Arkansas though?
Posted by Zamoro10
Member since Jul 2008
14743 posts
Posted on 11/14/11 at 1:13 pm to
If they fall below Bama in the BCS - Bama goes, right? And vice-versa.
Posted by TigerWoody
btwn where I was & where I will be
Member since Dec 2007
11387 posts
Posted on 11/14/11 at 1:13 pm to
quote:

Georgia, Virginia Tech, and Kansas (who were all ahead of LSU in the poll the week before),
Do you recall the rest of the reasons LSU slipped ahead in the eyes of the voters?

UGA - did not play in Conf Champ game.
VTech - LSU stomped that arse early in the season.
Kansas - did you forget what happened to them on Nov 24 in KC?

Who was better that year? Who should have gotten in before LSU? It was no meeting of voters to ensure LSU got in.

Posted by TigerWoody
btwn where I was & where I will be
Member since Dec 2007
11387 posts
Posted on 11/14/11 at 1:14 pm to
quote:

slackster
Posted by Weaver
Madisonville, LA
Member since Nov 2005
28013 posts
Posted on 11/14/11 at 1:14 pm to
quote:

Georgia, Virginia Tech, and Kansas


We beat VA Tech, GA didn't win its division and Kansas had lost to Mizzou I believe. Had no choice but to put LSU after Mizzou and WVU both lost. Oklahoma dropped two that year I believe, for sure against Texas Tech.
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