re: The ATL Thread: Offseason Edition

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I can't deal with trading him for a bag of cookies.

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Atlanta-bound Shelby Miller posted a 2.92 ERA after the All-Star break in 2014. For their trouble, the Braves get two premium young arms, one ready to step right into their rotation and one who immediately becomes the best pitching prospect in their farm system. Shelby Miller now has two solid, healthy seasons as a major league starter and won't be eligible for arbitration until after 2015. He seemed to find the perfect formula for his pitch mix in the second half of last season, working in his curveball more and using the four-seamer less; in turn he missed more bats, got more called strikes and cut his walk rate substantially. He's a mid-rotation starter at worst, as long as he stays healthy, and given his delivery and the evolution of his approach, I believe he can end up as a solid No. 2 starter.

Tyrell Jenkins was the No. 74 prospect for me going into the 2012 season, then shoulder injuries robbed him of much of that season and 2013. But he came back healthy this year and was one of the best prospects in the Arizona Fall League. When I saw him there in October, he was 93-96 with good downhill plane, turning the pitch over quite well even at 95 mph, generating lots of ground balls. His slider was plus at 83-87, with curveball depth, and actually got sharper into his second and third innings. His changeup was fringy, straight at 86-88, effective because his delivery of the pitch is close to his fastball delivery, but lacking any life or action. He's as strong as ever, and his shoulder is the healthiest it has been in more than two years. A former three-sport star who had a football scholarship to Baylor, he repeats his delivery very well and has the aggressiveness you'd expect (and want) to see from a former quarterback. He immediately becomes the team's top pitching prospect and should be ready to begin 2015 in Double-A.

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The trade makes a ton of sense for both teams, although it's an acknowledgment on Atlanta's part of the weaknesses of the current roster and farm system and may not read very well to some of their fans. The Cardinals are -- and should be -- in win-now mode; they needed to upgrade their production on the corners and have some pitching depth to play with. As good a prospect as Jenkins is, he has thrown just 215 innings in the last three regular seasons combined and has never pitched a full, healthy season in pro ball. They can replace Miller in the rotation with one of Marco Gonzales or Carlos Martinez, assuming Michael Wacha returns healthy to be the fourth starter behind Wainwright, Lynn, and Lackey, and they have other young arms on the way.

Atlanta was likely to lose Heyward after the season to free agency, and their farm system was left in terrible shape after former GM Frank Wren's tenure, so this deal helps restock their system with four more years of Miller and potentially six of Jenkins in exchange for one year of Heyward and two of Walden. Atlanta needed to make a trade like this to get younger and extract value from Heyward while they could. The Cardinals didn't have the same urgency, but they strengthened a weak spot on the roster and did so without significantly damaging their future.

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