re: The ATL Thread: Offseason Edition

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Danny Knobler

By the way, heard again today that there's a very good chance Tigers trade Scherzer this winter, as I wrote last week LINK

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So why would the Tigers trade him?

Because Scherzer is one year away from free agency and is a Scott Boras client who is very unlikely to sign a long-term deal this close to being able to test the market. The Tigers may make an attempt to sign him after this season, but they realize that it's unlikely he would accept a deal now.

With or without a new deal, Scherzer's 2014 salary figures to jump to somewhere around $20 million, a stiff price for a team that already has three players making more than $20 million a year (Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Justin Verlander), and three others who will make between $12 million and $16 million next year (Victor Martinez, Torii Hunter and Anibal Sanchez).

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Would think the Braves would want Price more since he has two years left

This offseason is a lot less clear than last year.

It was obvious we needed a CF last year, and there were multiple options on the market. We picked Upton, likely because we thought it'd help us net JUP, IMO.

Now we're in a hole at 2B, and again looking for another OF, depending on how much faith they have in BJ rebounding to any sort of usable form.

We could feasibly enter the season without signing another SP besides Huddy, who I think will stick around for a discount, but also comments from Fredi/Wren that we need an ace, which likely puts us in the market for a guy like Price or Scherzer.

IF we do nab a top-tier SP like that, then you are almost assured of entering the season with Uggs/La Stella at 2B due to money constraints.

If they opt to deal Uggla for Phillips, which really doesn't make much good sense, then no way we deal for an ace. We just don't have the money, IMO.

At this point, I'd love for us to make a deal for a guy like Price, throw them Minor and some other guys and gamble on the lineup as presently comprised.

If you do that, you also need to be in the market for another OF, and a guy you feel comfortable with potentially playing a ton. Maybe someone like Marlon Byrd is a possibility. He made nothing last year, but will probably see an uptick due to his production. That said, at 36/37, not likely to get anything big.

I think he has been a product of a high powered offense. Sure he performed great this year, but the lowest his (starter)ERA was prior to this year was 3.50 back in 2010. He's 29, but his price is going to sky rocket to more than what I think we should be giving away.

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ut the lowest his (starter)ERA was prior to this year was 3.50

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Mostly bad luck, based on all the advanced numbers.

ERA+ for his career: 151, 108, 120, 93, 114, 145

Averages out to a 116, but he's driven down his walks, and started limiting his hits.

But I'm with you in the sentiment that he's probably not worth the 20 million dollar/yr. contract he's likely to get.

FWIW, Kris Medlen continues to be pretty underrates, probably even by us Braves fans. His ERA+ of 256 in 2012 is simply unrepeatable, but this year, his "down" year was a 124.

He's outperforming his peripheral numbers, but guys like Matt Cain do this fairly consistently as well.

Bowman said it hasn't been discussed

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After the Bryan Price press conference, I asked Reds general manager Walt Jocketty about the trade rumors regarding Brandon Phillips that have circulated of late. Jocketty was certainly aware they were floating around, as was Phillips.

“He texted wanting to know if we were trading him. I told him that I have not spoken to anybody about that,” Jocketty said Tuesday. “I’m not talking to any clubs about him.”

However, Jocketty would not go so far as to guarantee that Phillips would be with the Reds at Spring Training 2014.

“I’m not saying that,” Jocketty said. “We’ve got some things we’ve got to look at on how we’re going to improve our club. I’m not going to say nobody is untouchable. Obviously, we want to keep as much of this club intact as we can.”

Trading Phillips would be a tall order, namely because he is owed $50 million over the last four years of his contract. That could leave a limited circle of suitors, especially to make a trade that would improve the Reds as they try to go further in the playoffs than in recent years.

The off-the-field controversies involving Phillips this summer when he criticized the front office’s handling of his contract to Cincinnati Magazine and a verbal attack of a reporter caught on camera are not expected to enter in the equation if a deal is made. Jocketty said any potential deal involving Phillips would be a baseball decision that’s best for the club.

“Absolutely,” Jocketty affirmed.

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LINK

Roger McDowell could be a candidate for Phillies pitching coach

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I'm also a big proponent of trading Kimbrel, but I doubt that will happen.

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LINK

Trade him and sign Wilson.