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Posted on 6/19/13 at 9:54 pm to The White Lobster
Who are we going to replace Heyward with?
Posted on 6/19/13 at 10:01 pm to K9
quote:
They're in an offensive slump, have trouble getting productive outs and K a shite load. does your equation have variables for this kind of stuff? Probably not.
The fact that we struggle to make productive outs and strike out a crapload is one of the major reasons giving up an out to bunt a runner from second to third is dumb as hell. What happened during this game when we did it and had runners on 1st and 3rd with one out? Justin struck out.
You barely improve your ability to score moving a guy over from 2nd to third with a bunt, and give up an out to do so. This makes it a dumb play in general, but particularly so with our lineup of low contact hitters. Sorry you can't grasp that.
quote:
Your post made no mathematical sense, logical sense, baseball sense, or common sense.
I think Whitie put it more concisely.
This post was edited on 6/19/13 at 10:04 pm
Posted on 6/19/13 at 10:02 pm to crimsonian
Posted on 6/19/13 at 10:04 pm to K9
quote:
I get you're into stats and shite. thats cool. But what you just said made zero baseball sense for this team. They're in an offensive slump, have trouble getting productive outs and K a shite load. does your equation have variables for this kind of stuff? Probably not.
Wut?
Let me get this straight....the solution to an offensive slump is to play for 1 run at a time? It's not like we are the fricking Marlins. Our offense blows for a few games in a row, and then we get back on track. It's just something we have to deal with. Trying to play small ball with a free swinging power lineup is kind of stupid.
Posted on 6/19/13 at 10:04 pm to The White Lobster
Posted on 6/19/13 at 10:05 pm to auyushu
Look at the chart here
LINK
In no situation are you likely to score more runs when you advance the runner and give up an out. Seriously you can go back as many years as you want. It never works
And advancing a runner is no guarantee
Small ball is idiotic except in late game situations...preferably just the bottom of the last inning in a tie game
LINK
In no situation are you likely to score more runs when you advance the runner and give up an out. Seriously you can go back as many years as you want. It never works
And advancing a runner is no guarantee
Small ball is idiotic except in late game situations...preferably just the bottom of the last inning in a tie game
This post was edited on 6/19/13 at 10:08 pm
Posted on 6/19/13 at 10:23 pm to The White Lobster
quote:
Small ball is idiotic except in late game situations...preferably just the bottom of the last inning in a tie game
Yep.
This post was edited on 6/19/13 at 10:25 pm
Posted on 6/20/13 at 1:32 am to auyushu
quote:
What happened during this game when we did it and had runners on 1st and 3rd with one out? Justin struck out.
Do we score on that pass ball when the runner is on second?
quote:
You barely improve your ability to score moving a guy over from 2nd to third with a bunt
a runner's chance of scoring dramitically improves when his at third. I feel like I'm in the twilight zone. quote:
This makes it a dumb play in general, but particularly so with our lineup of low contact hitters. Sorry you can't grasp that.
there is nothing to grasp. having a guy on third with one out is a great situation to be in. Pass ball, wild pitch, balk, etc. None of those require contact.
Posted on 6/20/13 at 1:36 am to Robot Santa
quote:
the solution to an offensive slump is to play for 1 run at a time?
Its the fricking solution to winning baseball games, especially at home. Giants have been doing pretty well with this strategy.
Posted on 6/20/13 at 1:37 am to The White Lobster
quote:
Small ball is idiotic except in late game situations...preferably just the bottom of the last inning in a tie game
Posted on 6/20/13 at 1:41 am to K9
Why are you assuming that the runner would still be on second if Simmons had been allowed to hit away? He has either put the ball in play or walked in 90.6% of his plate appearances this year.
Why just give away an out there when Simmons has about a 1 in 4 chance of getting a hit and a 9/10 chance of putting the ball in play?
Why just give away an out there when Simmons has about a 1 in 4 chance of getting a hit and a 9/10 chance of putting the ball in play?
This post was edited on 6/20/13 at 1:52 am
Posted on 6/20/13 at 2:42 am to K9
quote:
a runner's chance of scoring dramitically improves when his at third. I feel like I'm in the twilight zone.
The only things that are going to score Schafer from third that wouldn't score him from second are a passed ball/wild pitch, balk, or a sac fly. Those are all very small chances to happen, much smaller than the 25% chance to get a hit Simmons has had this year, and that's not even going into the fact that Simmons would have a very good shot of moving Schafer to third anyway if he made contact.
Not sure why I'm even bothering here since you clearly have no concept of probability and statistics, but as the link Whitie posted shows, they've studied the situations and compiled the numbers from these situations over the past several seasons, and it's pretty much always a losing proposition to sac bunt like that, the odds don't favor you. Sure you can get lucky and have a passed ball help you out like tonight, but otherwise it would have just resulted in no runs outside of the 2 out double, which would have scored Schafer anyway.
Posted on 6/20/13 at 6:47 am to K9
Can you read?
Also it working tonight doesn't matter because on average it has never worked in the history of baseball
Also it working tonight doesn't matter because on average it has never worked in the history of baseball
Posted on 6/20/13 at 9:57 am to volfan30
quote:
Why are you assuming that the runner would still be on second if Simmons had been allowed to hit away?
He isn't exactly tearing it up right now...
quote:
Why just give away an out
How is it giving away an out? It's not like we got nothing from the out. The runner advanced to a much better scoring position. It was a productive out. Yeah he could of gotten a hit...he also could have popped up, grounded to third/SS/pitcher, etc that wouldn't have moved the runner over.
Posted on 6/20/13 at 9:58 am to The White Lobster
Did we win?
Posted on 6/20/13 at 10:01 am to okietiger
Braves win.
And the Georgia fan can't read.
And the Georgia fan can't read.
Posted on 6/20/13 at 10:02 am to The White Lobster
quote:
Can you read?
read what? that graph?
explain the variables that go into this stat. I wan to know how it works. I tried clicking on it but I dont have an account.
Posted on 6/20/13 at 10:06 am to K9
quote:
How is it giving away an out?
Well, it's called a sacrifice bunt for a reason. Emphasis on sacrifice. You are giving up the possibility of a hit to move the runner up 90 feet.
quote:
Yeah he could of gotten a hit...he also could have popped up, grounded to third/SS/pitcher, etc that wouldn't have moved the runner over.
He also could have popped up the bunt, fouled out attempting to bunt, left the ball right in front of the catcher, or bunted it straight to the pitcher.
Posted on 6/20/13 at 10:11 am to Robot Santa
quote:
He also could have popped up the bunt, fouled out attempting to bunt, left the ball right in front of the catcher, or bunted it straight to the pitcher.
thats true too. I guess thats where it comes down to opinions. I feel like bunting was a good call.
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