re: The ATL Thread - 8/2 - JR Ready to Sweep

quote:

---

would agree with it if Murphy or Ritchie could get through more than 4 innings in a start

---

But Mahle can’t either

quote:

---

Mahle doesn’t help that.

---

Yeah he does. Because:

quote:

---

We’d be better off giving those starts to Murphy and Ritchie

---

One of those 2 are probably gonna be the centerpiece of the Mize trade. Check out Mize’s stats. Dude has been really good the past 2 seasons after getting his velo back—even higher—since he had Tommy John. He was an all-star last year but has taken an even bigger jump this year. He’s a rental, but….

Born and raised in Alabama. Went to Auburn. We are going to extend or re-sign him and he’s only 29. AA probably talked to Tigers GM about Skubal a week or so ago, felt like it was gonna be more than he was comfortable with, and then pivoted to Mize and got a good idea of what it would take. Maybe he’s got another guy or 2 ahead of Mize in mind, but he just makes so much sense to me.

And we’ll grab a reliever or 2 that we’ve never heard of, but who throw 97.

To me, these 2 underwhelming trades we’ve made almost guarantee we’re gonna go get a legit #2 and at least a reliever. Otherwise, you’re right, there’s no point in even having made them.

quote:

---

Are we better with him than Anthony Molina? Yes.

---

I don’t think we got better or worse

quote:

---

Not sure why his numbers are so much worse this year, but he’s battled a hamstring

---

He was super lucky with a .260 babip, 85% LOB percentage, and a HR rate over half his career averages, none of which are sustainable.

He has a career 4.19 ERA, that's what he is. We gave up nothing for him so it's no big deal, but he's a 5th starter if we are lucky. If we make a trade for a legit pitcher I'm assuming Ritchie is gone and then it's fine if Mahle gets starts. But if Ritchie isn't traded he needs to be the 5th starter to get quality innings.

Looks like we will get to see how Hartman adjusts to AA fairly soon Broski (along with Gil, Caminiti, and Carey). I'm interested to see how they do adjusting to the challenge, particularly with them coming from one of the worst home parks offensively in high A.

Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.

Carey and Gill are whatever, but trading two top 50ish prospects for a two pitch starting pitcher who has only managed to go over 125 IP once in his 5 season career and has never gone over 150 IP would be hella dumb. Particularly when he's royally sucked when he's been on the field this year (he has one start when he hasn't got smacked around, and that was his second one)

Greene is basically Strider. Down to the TJ surgery early on, being shut down due to elbow soreness in 24, now arthroscopic elbow surgery in 26. He's a ticking time bomb waiting for the second TJ that ends his career, and much like Strider he doesn't have the secondary stuff to compensate for losing fastball stuff.

Anyone who gives up major prospects to trade for him is likely to regret it.

quote:

---

Which is an all-star pitcher with contract control.

---

He hasn't been so far this season, this season he has been current version of Strider. If he was pitching well coming off that elbow surgery it would be one thing, but he hasn't. And he's never had a complete season ever.

quote:

---

He was super lucky with a .260 babip, 85% LOB percentage, and a HR rate over half his career averages, none of which are sustainable. He has a career 4.19 ERA, that's what he is. We gave up nothing for him so it's no big deal, but he's a 5th starter if we are lucky.

---

Certainly not arguing with any of that. Can’t argue with any of that. But here’s what AA has to say about him:

quote:

---

“I know on the surface, you look at the ERA and say, ‘well,’ but obviously we're trying to dig a little further into some of those things,” Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said. “We like what he’s done of late and we think there’s still some room for improvement with some other tweaks.”

---

quote:

---

So, how might the Braves help Mahle? He has had trouble against right-handed hitters much of his career, but he limited them to a .658 OPS while producing a 2.18 ERA in 16 starts for Texas last year. Right-handed hitters have a .849 OPS against him this year.

Righties hit .255 with a .255 slugging percentage against his cutter (12.5% usage) last year. They have hit .269 with a .403 SLG against the same pitch (17.4% usage) this year. They hit .195 with a .295 SLG against his splitter (27.7% usage) last year. They have hit .259 with a .384 SLG against it (25.1% usage) this year.

---

I know the Braves have really focused lately on guys developing cutters or sinkers to throw as their primary fastballs if they don’t have super high velo with their 4-seamers (everyone but Sale) or can’t paint both blacks with it or a 2-seamer.

I know this was a big deal for Waldrup, Elder, Strider when he came back earlier, and a couple of other younger guys. Lindsay Crosby does a good job taking about this stuff if you wanna nerd out a bit.

And you mentioned Mahle’s home runs given up being anomalously down last year and way up this year. (I think he gave up 5 last year and has given up like 24 this year so far in pretty much the same amount of innings, but pitching in a more pitching friendly park). He’s obviously catching way too much of the plate without the stuff to get away with it.

Maybe they see something they can tweak with his cutter and/or splitter that can potentially recapture the magic of last year in Texas. Or at least split the difference (pun intended). Who knows how much a new organization and pitching coach can affect fringe guys like him.

Maybe some of our guys have relationships with some of the Rangers guys. (Scouts, analysts, etc…). AA did say he called to ask about DeGrom last week. Maybe he asked them about Mahle too, and what they thought about his regression this year.

Maybe our philosophy is just aligned with Texas’ more than San Francisco’s. Maybe he’s already figured something out since coming off the DL:

quote:

---

Mahle missed a month with a strained left hamstring he sustained in late May. He returned from the injured list on June 24 and posted a 3.06 ERA over his next six starts. The righty’s strong run ended Saturday night, when the Padres tagged him for five earned runs over 5 2/3 innings. But he did register nine strikeouts in the outing.

---

Maybe him going 5 2/3 instead of 4 2/3 (I heard some crazy stat about how few of our starts this year haven’t made it out of the 5th) at his current pace is just enough to help save our pen to get them refreshed for the postseason (along with the other starter and reliever I’m convinced we’ll have by 6 today).

Or maybe he’s just unpitchable and we DFA or straight up waive him in a month and have to eat the bucket of balls he cost to acquire.