re: The ATL Offseason Thread

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Q: Do you see Braves keeping both Ender Inciarte and Mallex Smith and if not, which one would you guess gets moved?

Kevin Lyon
@kilogrey

BA:
It’s hard not to like the significant haul of talent the Braves got back in the trade that sent Shelby Miller to the Diamondbacks. There’s Dansby Swanson, the No. 1 pick in June’s draft. There’s Aaron Blair, a solid mid-rotation righthander prospect who could be ready to pitch in Atlanta’s rotation in 2016 and there is Inciarte.

Inciarte has put together back-to-back solid seasons in the Diamondbacks outfield, but he actually fits much better in Atlanta as one of his best attributes–his center field defense–is wasted on a team that also has A.J. Pollock.
Inciarte’s value to a team comes from his defensive ability and offensive contributions that are largely tied to his batting average.

Smith, who reached Triple-A with the Braves after being acquired in a 2014 offseason, has a somewhat similar skill set, as his contributions to a big league club will be based on hitting for average, stealing bases and utilizing his speed. Smith is faster than Inciarte and a better baserunner, but he’s not as good defensively (although he’s still at least solid average) and he has less power. Inciarte can drive the ball to the gaps on a regular basis while Smith is best slapping the ball and dashing out of the box. Inciarte can play all three outfield spots while Smith is limited to center and left field by a below-average arm.

Scouts who question Smith’s contributions believe that he needs to be an above-average defender in center to make much of a contribution as a speedy center fielder. The Braves are more optimistic on Smith’s ability, thinking that his speed and steadily improving defense could make him a useful top-of-the-order hitter at best.

In the short term, Inciarte’s arrival takes pressure off pushing Smith to the big leagues too quickly. But when Smith is ready, the two have enough complementary attributes to co-exist. As Inciarte showed in Arizona, he can play all three outfield positions while Smith can play center and left.

So I think it’s most likely that Inciarte and Smith could both play on the same Braves’ team for a little while. If Smith develops as the Braves believe he will, then Inciarte could become a useful trade chip just around the time that he starts to get expensive in arbitration.

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@juliedicaro
Sounds like #Cubs are trying to determine internally if Inciarte is worth what the Braves are asking.

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