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re: Official Wk 4 College FB Bet Thread (Swiggety Swooty, I'm Commin for that Booty)
Posted on 9/23/15 at 2:31 pm to oleyeller
Posted on 9/23/15 at 2:31 pm to oleyeller
2-1 so far this year on 3-team, 10-point teasers. Won the first two weeks, but lost last week with Auburn +17.5 and USC PK. This week's pick:
TCU +3.5
A&M +3
Oregon -1
Thoughts? The one that makes me nervous is TCU, just because it's on the road and they have so many injuries and suspensions on defense. But they did annihilate Tech 82-27 last year.
TCU +3.5
A&M +3
Oregon -1
Thoughts? The one that makes me nervous is TCU, just because it's on the road and they have so many injuries and suspensions on defense. But they did annihilate Tech 82-27 last year.
3
Posted on 9/23/15 at 2:36 pm to dcrews
quote:Does this mean odds makers think Syracuse will score a fair amount of points? I'm not sure how much spreads and totals correlate, but that o/u makes me think Syracuse scores at least 14...
Anyone like Over 46.5 as a play for LSU/Cuse?
Posted on 9/23/15 at 2:40 pm to ReauxlTide222
quote:
Does this mean odds makers think Syracuse will score a fair amount of points? I'm not sure how much spreads and totals correlate, but that o/u makes me think Syracuse scores at least 14...
Implied team totals would be 35.5 to 11.
Posted on 9/23/15 at 2:44 pm to profwilson
quote:
2-1 so far this year on 3-team, 10-point teasers. Won the first two weeks, but lost last week with Auburn +17.5 and USC PK. This week's pick:
I played a few 10 point 3 teamers last week(small plays for fun, not as part of my main bets) and lost them all.
I never hit teasers, ever. It's like a curse for me.
Earlier in this thread I mentioned how I play a bunch of $0.25 and $0.50 teasers just so I have action on all the games. They are 6, 10, and 13 points, ranging from 4-15 teams. I have lost all 67 I have placed so far this year. Can't even hit the 4 team 13 point teasers that pay out -120.
I think there are better teams than TCU this week. They seem like a boom or bust team, to where if they bust it can get ugly with all their defensive depth issues.
Same with A&M. Are you sold on them? I am not. Too much being made of their win over Arizona State, who just isn't a good team. The Nevada game wasn't pretty - A&M was very sloppy. Too many people are capping this game only looking at how bad Arkansas has played. If A&M plays like they did against Nevada, they lose.
Oregon is the best play of the bunch but I still can see flaws. Utah's offense is bad. But if Oregon can give up 28 to Georgia State, who is to say Utah can't score 30+? Utah might be the best defensive front Oregon faces this year.
I think there are better teams than those 3. If you can get West Virginia at -7, I'd do it. I think at -16.5 they are(were since the line went over that) the best play on the board this week.
I'd also look at teasing up San Diego State or UCF to +25. Do you trust Penn State/South Carolina to even score 25 points?
I think 10 point teasers have their best value when you are teasing up a team opposite a team with a crappy offense. If you teased up UConn last week, congratulations.
But take my advice with a grain of salt, the person who has never been able to win a serious teaser bet.
Posted on 9/23/15 at 3:51 pm to accnodefense
These are valid concerns about TCU and A&M. I agree that there are reasons to be worried about both of their defenses. But both should be able to score a ton of points against their opponents this week. TCU's offense, which has not had a lot of injuries, put 82(!) on Tech last year. Arkansas's defense seems to me to be a shell of what it was last year. But we'll see...
As a general rule, my favorite teaser plays (in a 3-team, 10-point) are teams who are favored by between 7 and 13 points, with the idea that they may get a scare, but will seldom lose outright. Obviously, it doesn't always work out (see USC last week).
As a general rule, my favorite teaser plays (in a 3-team, 10-point) are teams who are favored by between 7 and 13 points, with the idea that they may get a scare, but will seldom lose outright. Obviously, it doesn't always work out (see USC last week).
Posted on 9/23/15 at 3:55 pm to accnodefense
quote:
Oregon is the best play of the bunch but I still can see flaws. Utah's offense is bad. But if Oregon can give up 28 to Georgia State, who is to say Utah can't score 30+? Utah might be the best defensive front Oregon faces this year.
When Oregon gets spread out, they give up more than a two bit whore. This Utah offense plays into our strength. Also, we aren't the greatest pass pro team and Utah has 3 sacks on the season. I like Oregon by two tds.
I also said in last weeks thread to take the points with GSU.
This post was edited on 9/23/15 at 3:58 pm
Posted on 9/23/15 at 4:15 pm to profwilson
quote:
As a general rule, my favorite teaser plays (in a 3-team, 10-point) are teams who are favored by between 7 and 13 points, with the idea that they may get a scare, but will seldom lose outright. Obviously, it doesn't always work out (see USC last week).
That's not a bad way to go about 10 point teasers. Although you are right when you can get burned, with USC and Alabama last week.
I still am not sold on Oregon. 3 point loss at Michigan State, yes. But Michigan State IMO hasn't looked great either. 13 point win over Western Michigan, 14 point win over Air Force. A true Top 5 team beats both of those teams by 20.
Not sold on Oregon because they gave up 42 to an FCS team and 28 to one of the worst teams in FBS. Their defense isn't good. Utah is a team that can beat Oregon outright.
To stick with your "7-13 point favorites that should win" strategy, why not Memphis. Tease them to a pick'em. Unless you think Cincinnati can beat perhaps the best AAC team on the road with a backup QB.
Toledo is another team that could fit.
Louisiana Lafayette and Appalachian State are great candidates as well.
Posted on 9/23/15 at 4:23 pm to accnodefense
quote:I do the same thing usually. I try to get teams favored between 7-13 who with a loss, will shake up the top of the polls. USC losing certainly shocked me, but them losing is perfectly fine with me.
That's not a bad way to go about 10 point teasers. Although you are right when you can get burned, with USC and Alabama last week.
I posted my Ole Miss +7 play, but before the game I crushed it at +9 and the money line. I apologize for not posting those 2 plays. I just knew Ole Miss was going to win. Didn't think it'd be like that, though
Posted on 9/23/15 at 4:27 pm to accnodefense
quote:
I still am not sold on Oregon. 3 point loss at Michigan State, yes. But Michigan State IMO hasn't looked great either. 13 point win over Western Michigan, 14 point win over Air Force. A true Top 5 team beats both of those teams by 20.
There aren't 5 teams then that look top 5 quality.
Posted on 9/23/15 at 4:40 pm to bisonduck
Yeah, besides Ohio State, I have no clue which 4 teams will make the playoff.
Posted on 9/23/15 at 4:54 pm to profwilson
Your talk of the teasers got me to bite last week (damn USC did me in as well).
Looking for another 3-team combo I like, not sure if I'm seeing it yet. I'm concerned w/ TCU this week as well, that Arky game might serve as a TT confidence boost right in time for this week's big game.
Looking for another 3-team combo I like, not sure if I'm seeing it yet. I'm concerned w/ TCU this week as well, that Arky game might serve as a TT confidence boost right in time for this week's big game.
Posted on 9/23/15 at 5:05 pm to ffhouston
quote:
Looking for another 3-team combo I like, not sure if I'm seeing it yet. I'm concerned w/ TCU this week as well, that Arky game might serve as a TT confidence boost right in time for this week's big game.
Since I just took my cousin to various places to apply for jobs, I had a lot of free time, and with the talk of teasers I too looked at teams I would consider teasing with 10 points
Keep in mind my teaser record is absolute shite. I think in the 4 years I have been betting on football I have hit 2 out of 20 or so serious teaser bets I have placed, and one was a 6 team 6 point teaser on opening night in 2012 that I got lucky on.
Memphis -10 -> PK
Oregon State +15.5 -> +25.5
San Diego State +15 -> +25
Bowling Green -1 -> +9
West Virginia -17 -> -7
Florida International +14.5 -> +24.5
Florida +1 -> +11
Minnesota +10.5 -> PK
NC State -16.5 -> -6.5
Notre Dame -29 -> -19
Kent State +7 -> +17
ULM +38 -> +48
UTSA +9 -> +19
UCF +15.5 -> +25.5
Utah +11 -> +21
Appalachian State -7.5 -> +2.5
Northern Illinois +4.5 -> +14.5
Ball State +19.5 -> +29.5
Arizona +3 -> +13
Washington +4 -> +14
San Jose State -4 -> +6
Posted on 9/23/15 at 7:09 pm to accnodefense
quote:
quote:
ACC, keep us posted on those 90% picks. might be nice to sprinkle on
West Virginia -16.5 is the only side this week but line is -17.5 right now so that would definitely knock down the percentage
Glad I jumped on it last night
What was the percentage on the tcu over?
Posted on 9/23/15 at 7:30 pm to accnodefense
Sooo not posting the models anymore?
Posted on 9/23/15 at 8:03 pm to PigglyWiggly
Here are model sheets for Week 4: LINK
Was waiting for lines on 4 games that were posted this morning
Keep in mind I ran most of these Monday so its based on Monday lines
Here is the LSU-Syracuse sheet, says Syracuse covers. While my model hasn't been great the last 2 weeks, it has done well on picking home dogs. 20-14 on method 1, 20-13 method 2, 19-14 method 3, 19-13 method 4, 18-11 method 5.
It doesn't really factor in Syracuse's QB situation, but I ran it assuming Syracuse has the worst offense in FBS and it was still a 30-8 final, Syracuse cover.
Was waiting for lines on 4 games that were posted this morning
Keep in mind I ran most of these Monday so its based on Monday lines
Here is the LSU-Syracuse sheet, says Syracuse covers. While my model hasn't been great the last 2 weeks, it has done well on picking home dogs. 20-14 on method 1, 20-13 method 2, 19-14 method 3, 19-13 method 4, 18-11 method 5.
It doesn't really factor in Syracuse's QB situation, but I ran it assuming Syracuse has the worst offense in FBS and it was still a 30-8 final, Syracuse cover.
This post was edited on 9/23/15 at 8:04 pm
Posted on 9/23/15 at 8:07 pm to accnodefense
Whats it say about Mizzu, Arky, UF and Miss St
If u dont mind thanks
Edit: nvm i can read the sheets on my phone now
If u dont mind thanks
Edit: nvm i can read the sheets on my phone now
This post was edited on 9/23/15 at 8:10 pm
Posted on 9/23/15 at 8:13 pm to SDVTiger
Posted on 9/23/15 at 8:26 pm to profwilson
Home dogs my model likes this week:
Old Dominion
Virginia
Purdue
Washington
UTSA
Charlotte
Duke
Wake Forest
Syracuse
Wyoming
South Alabama
Texas
Oregon State
Texas Tech
Arizona
Arizona State
East Carolina
Old Dominion
Virginia
Purdue
Washington
UTSA
Charlotte
Duke
Wake Forest
Syracuse
Wyoming
South Alabama
Texas
Oregon State
Texas Tech
Arizona
Arizona State
East Carolina
Posted on 9/23/15 at 8:50 pm to accnodefense
Going big on the tigers; also the over. When the pull LF the other backs will still dominate.
Posted on 9/23/15 at 9:30 pm to accnodefense
Sorry, first time reading your model. Are you using the cover number at the bottom to get the percentage?
Also what is accuracy for 60-80% cover numbers?
Also what is accuracy for 60-80% cover numbers?
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