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Posted on 10/19/15 at 11:32 pm to accnodefense
quote:
Betting is done via tellers or "writers". You tell them the SIDE NUMBER, not the team, you want to bet.
I went to Vegas for the first time a couple of weeks ago and made this mistake at the Wynn. Felt like a huge newb
Ga Tech is the only side I know I'll be on. I expect the # to rise so holding off for now. Need a bounce back week after I gave half my winnings back Saturday. That Michigan game ...
Posted on 10/20/15 at 2:56 am to Zipfer2022
UL Lafayette +10
Posted on 10/20/15 at 11:01 am to rawDAWG333
How my model has done on totals this year.
Week 5 was a killer. That was the week the monsoon hit the east coast and pretty much every game went under so my model got killed picking overs.
Week 5 was a killer. That was the week the monsoon hit the east coast and pretty much every game went under so my model got killed picking overs.
Posted on 10/20/15 at 12:19 pm to accnodefense
What's your model say for the UL game tonight acc?
Posted on 10/20/15 at 12:28 pm to accnodefense
quote:
Where is your model then?
I'm not him, but I tend to lean on S&P+, which has LSU as the 35th best defense. A more realistic number imho. LINK
And that's the thing: doing a model on my own might give me a nice feeling of accomplishment, but it probably wouldn't give me a more predictive way of projecting college football scores. At least not initially.
ETA: I say all of this despite having elaborate plans for a tennis model that does everything but suck your dick on fridays.
ETA2: And I actually still haven't completely ruled out the possibility of some fellatio functionality. Just saying.
This post was edited on 10/20/15 at 12:38 pm
Posted on 10/20/15 at 12:33 pm to accnodefense
quote:
Yeah I am losing this season because I am not trusting my model enough.
I'll post how its done week by week later when I update the Week 7 results.
You could put it up on predictiontracker.com, and see how it fares.
Posted on 10/20/15 at 12:44 pm to SystemsGo
quote:
I'm not him, but I tend to lean on S&P+, which has LSU as the 35th best defense. A more realistic number imho. LINK
My issue with S&P+ is that its meant to be a ranking, not a method to predict games against the spread.
My model is far more transparent than S&P+ or FEI which are simply "here is a ranking of teams" with no breakouts or any way to explain how the numbers can be used apart from ranking the teams.
Posted on 10/20/15 at 12:45 pm to Vaquero
quote:
What's your model say for the UL game tonight acc?
I can't remember, its at home, but nothing stood out enough for me to bet it. I do know that it picked Arkansas State, however, against a spread of 7. I know the number rose to 10.
I was having more issues last night with the output. For some reason it outputted all the sheets in a low resolution so a lot of info was cut off. I will have to re-run them again tonight.
Posted on 10/20/15 at 12:48 pm to accnodefense
acc have you posted them for this week yet?
Posted on 10/20/15 at 12:49 pm to accnodefense
quote:
My issue with S&P+ is that its meant to be a ranking, not a method to predict games against the spread.
I disagree with this characterization. Predictive value is his guiding light. That's why I like it vis a vis other rankings. Retrodictive rankings are as useless as....well they're pretty useless.
This post was edited on 10/20/15 at 12:52 pm
Posted on 10/20/15 at 12:55 pm to SystemsGo
Posted on 10/20/15 at 12:59 pm to accnodefense
quote:
My model is far more transparent than S&P+ or FEI which are simply "here is a ranking of teams" with no breakouts or any way to explain how the numbers can be used apart from ranking the teams
Yeah, fair critique. I don't think Fremeau really cares to disclosse all that's under the hood of his ranking. I think Bill probably would if he could, but he's just really bad at it. Even reading his "study hall" posts is just a painful experience. I have no idea what all his numbers represent.
This post was edited on 10/20/15 at 1:01 pm
Posted on 10/20/15 at 1:00 pm to rawDAWG333
quote:
acc have you posted them for this week yet?
No I am having issues right now. The problem is that it takes about 3 hours to run the sheets, so I just run it and go do other stuff. I came back last night after it was done running to see it outputted in a low resolution. So I will have to run it again when I get home from work.
Posted on 10/20/15 at 1:04 pm to SystemsGo
quote:
Yeah, fair critique. I don't think Fremeau really cares to disclosse all that's under the hood of his ranking. I think Bill probably would if he could, but he's just really bad at it. Even reading his "study hall" posts is just a painful experience. I have no idea what all his numbers represent.
I know exactly how both systems work
My model is closer to FEI's, as my model only uses drive data, like FEI's. Connelly's uses play-by-play data, which is really hard to come by at an affordable price. So I have to go with drive data, but there is nothing wrong with that at all. Play-by-play data would only help my model's Method 5, but even then that is trivial.
I have never seen the part of Connelly's blog that shows his ATS picks. It's useful but I wish he would show how his method does against totals, and also how it does against value. If his S&P model says a team will win by 30 points and the spread is 10, that's 20 points of perceived value. If his S&P model says a team will win by 7 points and the spread is 6.5, that's only 0.5 points of perceived value. Does his method do better when his model gives a team more perceived value? That is another thing I calculate with my own methods.
Posted on 10/20/15 at 1:10 pm to accnodefense
quote:
I know exactly how both systems work
I understand them conceptually just fine; I just don't like the way Bill presents his 'advanced box scores' or whatever he calls them.
I'm not much of a totals guy, but I suppose the more information the better.
Posted on 10/20/15 at 1:16 pm to accnodefense
quote:
Does his method do better when his model gives a team more perceived value
I couldn't tell you this year, or even the last several years. I used to follow it pretty closely back in the day and I did feel like there was a correlation between how his picks fared and how much they deviated from the spreads. But that's what you'd expect. If his algorithm is projecting margins that are just a point or two or three off from the actual lines, his winning percentage isn't gonna deviate much from fiddy fiddy.
Posted on 10/20/15 at 3:21 pm to accnodefense
I highly recommend Lagasse's Stadium at the Palazzo. It will be $50/person to sit down, but that $50 goes towards food and drink.
A good strategy would be to go with a big group and split the tables up. Let's say you had 2 tables of 5....so the restaurant will get $500 guaranteed from y'all. You can keep asking the waitress how much left you have to spend. In their mind, you're one party, but once you hit the quota; tell her to split the bills b/w the tables.
Make sure everyone at your table knows the plan before. Only order a few beers and apps, this way you're out the door only spending about $38 after tip and the other table will foot the rest.
It will be all good, b/c each table is only paying for what they consumed.
Oh, and if you go to the Westgate; ask for Chona (she also goes by Concepcion) - she's the best cocktail waitress in Vegas.
A good strategy would be to go with a big group and split the tables up. Let's say you had 2 tables of 5....so the restaurant will get $500 guaranteed from y'all. You can keep asking the waitress how much left you have to spend. In their mind, you're one party, but once you hit the quota; tell her to split the bills b/w the tables.
Make sure everyone at your table knows the plan before. Only order a few beers and apps, this way you're out the door only spending about $38 after tip and the other table will foot the rest.
It will be all good, b/c each table is only paying for what they consumed.
Oh, and if you go to the Westgate; ask for Chona (she also goes by Concepcion) - she's the best cocktail waitress in Vegas.
Posted on 10/20/15 at 3:55 pm to cpsilo1
quote:
I highly recommend Lagasse's Stadium at the Palazzo. It will be $50/person to sit down, but that $50 goes towards food and drink.
i was there for the georgia/bama game and it was $100/person minimum(before tax and tip). either way, highly recommended.
Posted on 10/20/15 at 4:48 pm to dcrews
17-26-1(disgusting)
Ark St -7
Ark St -1/2 1Q
Ark St -7
Ark St -1/2 1Q
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