re: OFFICIAL Week 8 CFB bet thread™

Alright boys, I am coming to you for some help I am getting absolutely spanked in my weekly pick-em pool, so obviously I have no idea what I am doing. Therefore, I will leave it to you MSB to make my picks this week. Who you got out of the games below? (home team in caps, favored team on left)

Baylor 8.5 W. VIRGINIA

Stanford 4.5 ARIZONA ST

ALABAMA 11.5 Texas A & M

Georgia 4.5 ARKANSAS

L S U 9.5 Kentucky

OKLAHOMA 7.5 Kansas St

OLE MISS 17.5 Tennessee

T C U 8.5 Oklahoma St

FLORIDA ST 11.5 Notre Dame

CENT. FLORIDA 20.5 Tulane

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ETA: Early game big home favorites only cover about 20% of the time.

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That can't be right

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You are ruining this thread. Just post your picks/analysis without acting like a child

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Do me a favor and read through the last few pages of this thread. Focus on who has posted substance. Make specific note of the responses to said substantive posts.* Reevaluate opinion. Report back.


*And the age of the poster. Vegas has the over/under at 8.5.

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Have you not learned your lesson betting MLs? Didn't you just lose 2 grand or so on a LSU ML play from last year?

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Not an LSU play, but I did have a bad ML burn last year.

But, no, that didn't scare me. I've been at this for six years. When you play the ML as frequently as I tend to, you'll eventually get burned. It doesn't make it an inherently bad play, and in fact I would argue that that's where the most value can be found, at least in college football.*

There are two components of risk: magnitude and likelihood. ML betting -- at least favorite ML betting -- registers higher on the magnitude component than ATS betting, but lower on the likelihood prong. I see the two as being equally risky, just in different ways.



*The ML is a terrible play in basketball generally. And it's probably a bad play in the NFL, but I don't bet NFL so I can't say for sure.

So look I know WVU has a lot to play for and Baylor almost lost last week, but WVU doesn't run the ball and Baylor is going to score at will on them.

Am I crazy to take Baylor -8 on the road?
I thought about the OVER but goddamn it's 80 points

Pretty sure it was Oregon over Stanford that he got crushed on last year. He laid like -600

Anywho...

Boise St -16.5

Fresno St is fraudulent. They can't do much defensively, and now they have to stop Boise on the blue turf? At night? In prime time? Not going to happen.

Fishy line like that... you know what to do.

Someone with big $ either knows something about this Temple/Houston game or the books are bluffing. Temple is a public dog too. Feel like I'm set up for disaster.

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Feel like I'm set up for disaster

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This. I can't back Houston so I will not touch this death trap