re: OFFICIAL Week 5 CFB bet thread™

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Ok so here is the 2nd half system I've been tracking on covers... Not mine so don't shoot the messenger. Yesterday I went 4-2 testing it. As with any system you should use a flat bet and bet every play for it to be profitable in the long term. I also used it tonight for over 24 in pats game. Totals seem to work better than sides.... Possibly but need more data.

Yesterday it went 23-11-2 in CFB

Here is some stuff I copied to summarize:

System

You are looking for there to be a 10+ point difference or more between the expected and actual 2nd half lines as compared to the pure game total. The bigger the difference the better with 13 showing a superior statistical significance

You take who covered in the first half. If the favorite covered you take them again. If the underdog covers you take them. If the game is under you go under again and if the game goes over you go over in the 2H. Remember for their to be a 10 point or greater middle at the half, the game is way off the original line. Thus we look for that to continue. Maybe the favorite is far superior than they thought. Or maybe the underdOg is more competitive than they thought before the game started.

23-11-2 yesterday

Examples

Steelers@oakland
Full Game odds were Steelers -3.5 and 45
At the half, steelers 17-14
2H lines should be Oakland +.5 and 14
2H lines are Oakland +1.5 and 22.5
Thus we have
NO PLAYS!!!

Houston@denver
Full Game odds were Houston -1.5 and 43.5
At the half, Houston 21-11
2H lines should be Houston +8.5 and 11.5
2H lines are Houston Pk and 22
Thus we have over 22

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I'm going to quote this so I can find it easier on Saturday

I would love to try that on a large volume of plays on an away weekend when I'm sitting on my arse at home.

The guy who started it is quoting 70% returns in the past over the year.

Ill continue to track it but seems like it could be profitable, I'm sure there will be losing streaks as well

Why are you talking shite. I never said anything to you about betting.


And this was my first losing week in college football since week 6 last year so quit trying to be a bad arse.





If u booked my nfl bets you'd be a rich man. But what I'm I saying your down to take everyone's bet ( but can't because they are illegal of course) so you are already big time.


I post my play give my opinions but never come back and talk about how amazing I am when I picked a game that everyone had the other side and hit. Good job dude

All I did was say Oregon wasn't a lock and it apparently offended the entire board

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Go look at last weeks thread, I posted my leans, bottom line is I bet a lot and don't care to come here for you tards before I do it

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Then fricking leave tool


You are to good for us so stay away from us

You seem like the only butt hurt one calling everyone out to bet with you. But of course you can't for legal purposes. Most everyone on here likes good different views on games


Don't know why such a high roller cares what the little trolls on here think in the first place

I do think coming to this thread is pointless and I'll probably stop, I generally only click on it to see who everyone is taking so I know which team to fade..but I don't need to see who all the obvious chalk picks are by reading this weekly nonsense, the chalk picks are always clear anyways, so bye guys, and good luck paying your books..you sharps

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so bye guys, and good luck paying your books..you sharps

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I hope this isn't the first year in my betting history that I end the year in the red...

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Have to come to a message board and talk shite to people to make you feel better about your life.

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Every board on TD has at least one of those guys...