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re: OFFICIAL Week 2 CFB bet thread™
Posted on 9/6/12 at 1:05 pm to touchdown moses
Posted on 9/6/12 at 1:05 pm to touchdown moses
quote:
-2.5 winning by field goal wins bet
-6.5 winning by td wins bet
-9.5 win by 10 wins bet
-13.5 winning by 2 tds wins bet
+7.5 losing by a td wins bet
+10.5 losing by 10 wins bet
+14.5 losing by 2 tds wins bet
+17.5 losing by 17 wins bet
As the numbers increase in magnitude do you consider them less 'key'?
Like 17.5 is a key number, but the chances of that being the score differential are much less than with 2.5, so it isn't as much of a consideration.
2
Posted on 9/6/12 at 1:06 pm to bamafan425
quote:
I don't rely on them but you can get some great value if you tease correctly.
Also, when people use them as 10 team teasers, it's just as bad as parlaying. Sucker bet. Stick to smart, value based teases and you can be successful.
Posted on 9/6/12 at 1:08 pm to bobbyray21
quote:Correct...and it all depends on the original line and matchup. For a close even;y matched game, 3 and 7 will be the main two key numbers
As the numbers increase in magnitude do you consider them less 'key'?
This post was edited on 9/6/12 at 1:09 pm
Posted on 9/6/12 at 1:09 pm to bobbyray21
quote:
Like 17.5 is a key number, but the chances of that being the score differential are much less than with 2.5, so it isn't as much of a consideration.
i will say this.. i wouldnt want to tease a game to +20.. it would have to be +21 or +21.5
same goes if it was the favored.. i wouldn't want to tease it down to -22. i would want to get at or under that -21 mark
Posted on 9/6/12 at 1:11 pm to touchdown moses
you get so used to looking at those key numbers i do it without even noticing 
its like i am OCD about it
its like i am OCD about it 
Posted on 9/6/12 at 1:12 pm to TigerTatorTots
quote:
When I see someone crossing a zero, this is my reaction
I teased Cincy & Virginia to +1.5..
Posted on 9/6/12 at 1:12 pm to touchdown moses
I'm glad we could have a 2 page lesson on teasers. Hopefully some of the 10+ teaser people in the thread last week will come in and read up on it to help out their bankroll
Posted on 9/6/12 at 1:13 pm to LSUAlum2001
quote:
I teased Cincy & Virginia to +1.5..
Posted on 9/6/12 at 1:14 pm to touchdown moses
quote:
Key numbers are the margins most landed on relative to NFL final scores. By knowing what the key numbers are, you can avoid getting duped into betting a bad line and if your good at reading between the lines, you can actually read which way the oddsmakers want you to bet on the game.
As most already know, "3" is the most common maring of victory in NFL football games. Many games come down to the final minutes and are won by a field goal, as are games that go into overtime. A study was done by a handicapper name Andy Iskoe and he did a study on a 17 year period consisting of around 4000 games to see what the most common final score margins were. To nobody's surprise, 3 was the most common margin to the tune of 15.1%. It's no surprise that 7 was the second most common margin, as this is how many points a team is awarded for a touchdown plus extra point, but what was a surprise to us is that it comes in more than two times less than the 3, to the tune of 7.1%.
What do you think the next most common margin is? I'd have guessed 4, which is close, but no cigar. The third most common margin was "6," which is somewhat of a surprise. A six point margin happened six percent of the time. The other two key numbers of note are 10 and 4 which came in at 5.9 and 5.8% respectively.
LINK
That's what I read last year that made it click for me when I first heard of key numbers. If its too long, didn't read, well then you're missing out.
Posted on 9/6/12 at 1:14 pm to LSUAlum2001
quote:
I teased Cincy & Virginia to +1.5..
not smart my friend but you still may win
you would have been much better off taking the 2 games straight up
Posted on 9/6/12 at 1:14 pm to TigerTatorTots
j/k
I don't do teasers.
I don't do teasers.
Posted on 9/6/12 at 1:15 pm to TigerTatorTots
quote:
I'm glad we could have a 2 page lesson on teasers. Hopefully some of the 10+ teaser people in the thread last week will come in and read up on it to help out their bankroll
Sorry to hijak. But it was educational for me
This post was edited on 9/6/12 at 1:16 pm
Posted on 9/6/12 at 1:15 pm to alfredblueforheisman
Posted on 9/6/12 at 1:17 pm to LSUAlum2001
Posted on 9/6/12 at 1:18 pm to alfredblueforheisman
quote:Glad you brought the question up
Sorry to hijak. But it was educational for me
Posted on 9/6/12 at 1:45 pm to TigerTatorTots
Cincy is at 5.5 -115. It could move to 6 soon. Get your splooge ready Tots.
Posted on 9/6/12 at 1:50 pm to bamafan425
TTT caught me last week teasing across the 0. I still won the bet, but I was able to learn what I was doing. Last week was my first weekend of betting.
Posted on 9/6/12 at 1:58 pm to TexasTiger1185
What about teasing Pitt up to +11 and taking the over at 43 1/2
Posted on 9/6/12 at 2:03 pm to TexasTiger1185
It hit 6 on BetOnline.
Posted on 9/6/12 at 2:06 pm to TigerTatorTots
Hey degens! Scour the interwebs! I hear the week 2 RAS plays are out!
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