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Message
re: OFFICIAL Week 12 CFB Betting Thread - Vegas Disregards Committee Rankings Week
Posted on 11/12/14 at 12:04 pm to blades8088
Posted on 11/12/14 at 12:04 pm to blades8088
quote:
It took some huge money to push that line to 8.5
i agree, i think msu has enough defense to keep it close. But i see bama winning 3-7 range.
0
Posted on 11/12/14 at 12:13 pm to blades8088
quote:
I mean anyone in their right mind would be crazy to pass up that 8.5. But when it's that way, I know what ends up happening
Most metrics I've seen (e.g., Sagarin and Football Outsiders) regard Bama as a top team and State as only fringe top-10. And Blake Sims has been scary good at home. The LSU hangover aspect is the only thing that gives me hesitation. I'll still probably end up on Bama.
Posted on 11/12/14 at 1:03 pm to maclauer
Agreed about the LSU hangover, but most of the time it's a Moo St team they sleepwalk through. They know Moo St is for real this year
Posted on 11/12/14 at 2:55 pm to ChemE in the OP
quote:
That being said, I'm looking for the Miss St 1st half line more likely.
This scares me. Saban and co have proven that they aren't scared to come out early and slang it around, and particularly deep. It's tough for them to run without the passing game opening things up first. With Sims being better at home, I could see Alabama opening up a nice lead in the first half.
Posted on 11/12/14 at 3:07 pm to ReauxlTide222
I really don't know what to think about the State-Bama game, except that I want to stay the frick away. In other games, I like Mizzou in this spot. Auburn too.
This post was edited on 11/12/14 at 3:07 pm
Posted on 11/12/14 at 3:21 pm to LSUJuice
quote:
I really don't know what to think about the State-Bama game, except that I want to stay the frick away. In other games, I like Mizzou in this spot. Auburn too.
I'm leaning towards staying away too. If I do anything I'll just be on MSU for the purpose of having Alabama win or making money should MSU beat em.
As for the game though, I see it playing out a lot like the LSU game as far as strategy. Alabama will test them deep early. It didn't work against LSU but the plays were there to be made. Sims missed some huge throws. If it doesn't work, they'll slow the game down as much as MSU's offense and Alabama's defense allows.
I have faith in Alabama holding MSU to around 21-24 points. I might wait to see how things go in the first half and bet the 2nd half. I've been wildly successful betting 2nd halves so far.
Btw, is betting 2nd halves an efficient way to gamble?
Posted on 11/12/14 at 3:27 pm to HoLeInOnEr05
What don't yall think about my card?
My picks on left
OSU MINN+14
Utah+10 Stanford
LSU Arkansas+3
FSU Miami (FL) +4
Was also thinking about taking MSU+7 vs Alabama or Clemson over GT+3
Trying to get 5 teams on my card
My picks on left
OSU MINN+14
Utah+10 Stanford
LSU Arkansas+3
FSU Miami (FL) +4
Was also thinking about taking MSU+7 vs Alabama or Clemson over GT+3
Trying to get 5 teams on my card
Posted on 11/12/14 at 3:35 pm to Mr. Hangover
quote:
What don't yall think about my card?
I don't think nuthin'.
This post was edited on 11/12/14 at 3:38 pm
Posted on 11/12/14 at 3:37 pm to ChemE in the OP
Ummm
Thanks?
For those of you who are interested I'm thinking about taking ASU over Oregon St. +10
Thanks?
For those of you who are interested I'm thinking about taking ASU over Oregon St. +10
Posted on 11/12/14 at 3:39 pm to Mr. Hangover
In all seriousness your EV return would probably be better on the opposite side of all of those picks... Except Utah maybe.
Also, those lines are way off current.
Also, those lines are way off current.
This post was edited on 11/12/14 at 3:42 pm
Posted on 11/12/14 at 3:42 pm to ChemE in the OP
With all due respect I have no idea what you just said because I usually only gamble with my life..
However, I'm open to any advice you're willing to give me
Well I got one of those cards that are given out at the beginning of the week so I think that they have to use those numbers
However, I'm open to any advice you're willing to give me
Well I got one of those cards that are given out at the beginning of the week so I think that they have to use those numbers
This post was edited on 11/12/14 at 3:44 pm
Posted on 11/12/14 at 3:46 pm to Mr. Hangover
arkansas at +3
ummmmm is that right?
ummmmm is that right?
Posted on 11/12/14 at 3:52 pm to oleyeller
I'm pretty sure that is correct
I'm not sure how this works but I got a card from a guy at work and those were the numbers on it
Pretty sure they go out on every Sunday or Monday
I'm not sure how this works but I got a card from a guy at work and those were the numbers on it
Pretty sure they go out on every Sunday or Monday
Posted on 11/12/14 at 3:54 pm to Mr. Hangover
Go to this website....
LINK
Then find the lines that moved the most and take advantage of the "most wrong" lines on your early week card. That'd be the way to go.
LINK
Then find the lines that moved the most and take advantage of the "most wrong" lines on your early week card. That'd be the way to go.
Posted on 11/12/14 at 3:58 pm to Mr. Hangover
every book ive seen and arkansas the favorite.. by at least -2 is the reason why i thought it looked odd. Thats a big swing
Posted on 11/12/14 at 4:00 pm to ChemE in the OP
Alright thanks man I appreciate it
Posted on 11/12/14 at 4:04 pm to Mr. Hangover
quote:
Well I got one of those cards that are given out at the beginning of the week so I think that they have to use those numbers
I'm kinda confused. You don't get to see and bet on the line movement? Where are you getting these lines?
One of these guys can correct me if I'm wrong, but if you're stuck with opening lines, or whatever lines these are, you should be able to do some research and increase your value depending on how and why the lines move, and what side you eventually take. Wait as long as you can and fill out your card I guess...?
Posted on 11/12/14 at 4:09 pm to ReauxlTide222
Yea, that's basically what I told him to do. A lot of office pools work like this.
Posted on 11/12/14 at 4:11 pm to ChemE in the OP
Driving... Will post more when I get home
Posted on 11/12/14 at 4:28 pm to Mr. Hangover
anyone have insight on the 2 games tonight?
Kent St. @ BGSU (-14.5)
Ball St. @ UMass (-3.5)
Kent St. @ BGSU (-14.5)
Ball St. @ UMass (-3.5)
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