re: OFFICIAL Week 11 CFB bet thread™

I won a good bit with Obama's election so I'm taking $25 of it and throwing it away/putting it into a parlay:

To win $6200:
Texas Tech ML
Florida -27
Kent State ML
Akron ML
Minnesota ML
Alabama ML
Marshall ML
Georgia ML
Boise State -28
Louisiana Tech -20
Tulane pk
LSU ML
Oregon -28.5
Wisconsin ML

quote:

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Have said forever that Richt is one of the worst betting teams in the country love my Dawgs, but under this regime for a decade now, you will get burned almost anyway you try and bet them .

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Fulmer was the same way. Dude never covered a spread.

22 Team Parlay
Clemson ML
Rutgers ML
Minnesota U -3
BYU ML
Akron -16
Georgia -14½
ND ML
USC ML
San Jose State -20½
Oregon -28½
SMU -14½
UCLA -16½
Central Florida ML
Arizona U ML
South Carolina ML
Texas Tech ML
Louisiana Tech -20½
Oklahoma ML
Tulane ML
LSU ML
Western Kentucky -16½
Florida -27

Risk 5
To Win$17,511.42

ETA: just bored, keep me interested throughout the day; Gonna post my card tomorrow morning

Do it. Don't fight the feeling

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So what ML's are you thinking about this week?

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Most every play I do is a combination ATS/ML play. The main reason I do this is to keep myself disciplined in my analysis. So, for example, if I'm looking at the USC game, the question I'm asking is whether I think USC will cover the spread. If I think that they will, I will put 100 on USC ATS...but then I will also tack on a play of 110 on USC at the moneyline.

So this way, if they cover the spread as I think they will, I win double. If they don't cover the spread, but still win, the bet basically pushes as the ML bet will cover the ATS bet plus juice. And if they lose outright that means I suck at gambling.

The reason I try to do it as a combination most of the time is that if I'm confident that they'll cover the spread then surely they'll win the game. If my analysis is simply whether they'll win the game I can talk myself into some risky plays.

All that being said, do I occassionally throw down just on the ML? Yeah, I do. I had 400 last night on FSU at the ML. I had Bama last week just on the ML. I may take UGA this week just on the ML.

A good way to come up with some ML plays is to go through the games and identify the teams that are DEFINITELY going to win. I realize there are never absolutes, but identify the games where you don't think one team has a reasonable chance of beating the other team. Make a list. Now which of those teams are on your list has the lowest spread/ML*? Take those teams.

Another play that I do less frequently is to take the moneyline on the favorite and then also take the points with the underdog. But that's a play I only do when I'm feeling really ballsy and confident.

I should make note that when the spreads start to get over 20, the moneylines become almost unplayable. My favorite moneylines are those in the 10-13 range. I think those offer you the best moneyline value.


*They pretty much move in lockstep with one another.

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Still thinking hard on LSU & Bama ML Parlay....someone talk me out of it.

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Do UGA and Bama instead.

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Pending 11/10/12 12:00pm College Football 121 Louisville -2½ -110* vs Syracuse
Pending 11/10/12 12:00pm College Football 123 Miami Florida -1½ -110* vs Virginia
Pending 11/10/12 3:30pm College Football 125 Minnesota U -3 -115* vs Illinois
Pending 11/10/12 12:00pm College Football 127 Wisconsin -6½ -110* vs Indiana
Pending 11/10/12 7:00pm College Football 132 Mississippi -3 -105* vs Vanderbilt
Pending 11/10/12 1:00pm College Football 137 Kent State -6½ -110* vs Miami Ohio
Pending 11/10/12 8:00pm College Football 151 Notre Dame -18½ -110* vs Boston College
Pending 11/10/12 3:30pm College Football 159 San Jose State -22½ -110* vs New Mexico State
Pending 11/10/12 3:30pm College Football 161 Oregon -27½ -110* vs California
Pending 11/10/12 4:30pm College Football 177 Marshall -3 -105* vs UAB
Pending 11/10/12 7:00pm College Football 187 Central Florida -12½ -110* vs UTEP
Pending 11/10/12 7:00pm College Football 195 Lousiana Tech -20 -110* vs Texas State
Pending 11/10/12 7:00pm College Football 199 Tulane -1½ -110* vs Memphis

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Yep I'm tailing that parlay. I like those plays

ETA: i feel like that parlay will hit I feel each part has a 80% chance or above of hitting

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ETA: dude, you might win that. You have a lot of pretty safe ML plays in there.

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If I did, I have no idea how I cash out

Am I the only one who cracks up each time bobbyray does some gambling analysis? "A good way to come up with some ML plays is to go through the games and identify the teams that are definitely going to win".


No shite, really?