re: OFFICIAL Week 11 CFB bet thread™

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memphstigers23

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Nice! We could be rich together.

I thought about that and did the math, but the extra $5 I'd win with Notre Dame at -1 billion isn't worth the risk of them being upset.

Man, I talked myself out of parlays after the first couple of weeks and now I'm feeling the pressure

If both hit I'll quit gambling and never ever ever place another bet. No week would be greater than that. Doubt it happens but if it did.....

11/10/2012 12:00 PM College Football 121 Louisville* -1½ -110 vs Syracuse
11/10/2012 12:00 PM College Football 123 Miami Florida* +1½ -110 vs Virginia
11/10/2012 3:30 PM College Football 125 Minnesota U* -3 -115 vs Illinois
11/10/2012 12:00 PM College Football 127 Wisconsin* -7 -115 vs Indiana
11/10/2012 7:00 PM College Football 132 Mississippi* -2½ -115 vs Vanderbilt
11/10/2012 1:00 PM College Football 137 Kent State* -6 -117 vs Miami Ohio
11/10/2012 8:00 PM College Football 151 Notre Dame* -19 -110 vs Boston College
11/10/2012 3:30 PM College Football 159 San Jose State* -20½ -110 vs New Mexico State
11/10/2012 4:30 PM College Football 177 Marshall* -2½ -120 vs UAB
11/10/2012 7:00 PM College Football 187 Central Florida* -13½ -110 vs UTEP
11/10/2012 7:00 PM College Football 195 Louisiana Tech* -20½ -110 vs Texas State

Couldn't get Oregon below 28.5 and I don't trust Tulane.

$5 to win $5,373.57

So Phil Steele went through 10 years of college football results and found the winning percentage that corresponded to each point spread. That raw data can be found here. NCAA pointspread data

So, what I did was simply took the data -- which has a lot of jagged edge noise -- and smoothed it out with a best-fitting curve. So this gave me a winning percentage corresponding to every point spread. And then I converted the winning percentages to their corresponding moneylines.

And so basically the below chart tells you, based on ten years worth data, what the "fair" moneyline would be for each point spread. Actual moneylines of course have juice factored into them, so it's going to be the exception when you find a moneyline that is below the "fair" moneyline. But I find it to be a handy guide.

haha, which one?

Any of the 3 that have been talked about. The one I did, tailed bobby ray on and the one I tailed you on

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At least he quit numbering every sentence

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1. Did my numbering of sentences bother you?

2. What is it about numerical lists that you find objectionable?

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We opened Oregon 1h at 18 and the whales were literally lined up.

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Are you at liberty to disclose your employer?