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1
Posted on 8/8/15 at 10:37 am to dgtiger3
quote:
King of the College Bet Thread
<------
Posted on 8/8/15 at 10:52 am to aVatiger
we'll, i'll at least have a nice bankroll to start CFB with.
few minutes to go, and i'll clean up with a +270(Villa) dog and a +198(palace) dog in soccer. And both parlayed with Chelsea who plays later.
Love that there are a bunch of games for op[ening night of CFB. Not stuck with the 1 or 2 games.
few minutes to go, and i'll clean up with a +270(Villa) dog and a +198(palace) dog in soccer. And both parlayed with Chelsea who plays later.
Love that there are a bunch of games for op[ening night of CFB. Not stuck with the 1 or 2 games.
Posted on 8/8/15 at 11:39 am to Gountiss
WVU has all preseason to prepare for this game.If it were week 2-3,then it may be a concern.GaSouthern is not being overlooked.
Posted on 8/8/15 at 1:46 pm to SDVTiger
Utah will quiet the Harbaugh hype
Posted on 8/8/15 at 3:48 pm to stlslick
quote:
And both parlayed with Chelsea who plays later.
Yuck... I was on Villa myself.
Posted on 8/10/15 at 12:17 am to oleyeller
What's up bitches, finally finished my preseason model last night after 4 weeks of hard work.
I am starting to generate sheets for all teams, but its a slow pace since I have to adjust the color scheme and input the schedule for all teams, so I will probably roll out a new conference today.
Here is a preview of my sheets that I made. I'll post the rest of the American Conferece tomorrow.
I am starting to generate sheets for all teams, but its a slow pace since I have to adjust the color scheme and input the schedule for all teams, so I will probably roll out a new conference today.
Here is a preview of my sheets that I made. I'll post the rest of the American Conferece tomorrow.
Posted on 8/10/15 at 7:28 am to accnodefense
wow man, very impressive 
you put alot into this.
Me i just go with whats in my head
you put alot into this. Me i just go with whats in my head
Posted on 8/10/15 at 9:13 am to oleyeller
quote:
Me i just go with whats in my head
That's my gameplan. Then I see what DG and ChemE are on and rethink my previous thoughts if I'm on the opposite side
Posted on 8/10/15 at 1:08 pm to oleyeller
quote:
wow man, very impressive you put alot into this.
Yeah I am happy with how the model turned out. The hard part is figuring how much weight to give each stat(when it comes to game predictions). I had to tweak the numbers around because the first iteration some of the predictions were too unrealistic. The problem is you can't please everyone - when you move the numbers one way, it will make numbers elsewhere look more unrealistic. It's about finding that balance.
I believe I found the right balance, although the fanbase of one SEC West team won't like it because it has that team going 0-6 against the rest of the SEC West. I don't see it happening personally, but that is what a model is, its a starting point or a tool of reference, not the whole story. It's like the RPI in college basketball, a starting point, not the holy grail.
I am re-running my numbers again just to make sure the math matches up, that should take a couple hours then I will post links to more sheets.
Posted on 8/10/15 at 1:23 pm to oleyeller
Can someone explain the 50% bonus and rollover rules on bovada? I'm not sure I understand them.
Posted on 8/11/15 at 9:27 pm to ReauxlTide222
Any thoughts on LSU Season Total at 8.5? Im honestly having a hard time not laying 500 on the over. We have 4 auto wins, needing 5 out of 8 SEC games. Being we will be favored in all games but 2 of them.
I just think we beat State, Florida, USCe, A&M without going into all the details of why.
Leaving Auburn, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and Bama. Only needing 1 win out of those teams. I think if we lose it will be to one of those but absolutely think we take atleast 1 of those.
I just think we beat State, Florida, USCe, A&M without going into all the details of why.
Leaving Auburn, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and Bama. Only needing 1 win out of those teams. I think if we lose it will be to one of those but absolutely think we take atleast 1 of those.
Posted on 8/11/15 at 9:42 pm to blades8088
IF you lose? 
Did LSU find a QB that they aren't telling anyone about?
Did LSU find a QB that they aren't telling anyone about?
Posted on 8/11/15 at 9:46 pm to HoLeInOnEr05
If* was in refrence to the groups I categorized. I do not think we are going 12-0 Lets get that straight now. I can see LSU going either 10-2 or 9-3 With 9-3 probably the safer side.
Lets get that straight now. I can see LSU going either 10-2 or 9-3 With 9-3 probably the safer side. Posted on 8/11/15 at 9:50 pm to blades8088
Yup im matching your 500 on LSU over 8.5
Posted on 8/11/15 at 9:59 pm to blades8088
I agree with you completely on the LSU win total. Favored against everyone on the schedule except Ole Miss and Bama. This defense will be nasty and the offense will be much improved. I think LSU is under valued to start the season because of thoughts like the post below yours.
I'm also all over LSU -1.5 against MSU.
I'm also all over LSU -1.5 against MSU.
This post was edited on 8/11/15 at 10:01 pm
Posted on 8/11/15 at 10:06 pm to blades8088
quote:
Any thoughts on LSU Season Total at 8.5?
I will say that I am philosophically against win totals because of tying up a chunk of the bank roll for the entire season. But I take bank roll discipline very seriously and am a firm believer in time value of money. I only make season-long bets at low-dollar, high-odds as sort of lottery ticket for fun.
However, I will say that this bet is attractive because, at least on 5D, the over is at even money while the implied win total was around 8.6 to 8.8, if I remember correctly, which creates positive EV. (Note: I calc'd this implied win total back in June when GOY lines were first released. I don't remember the exact number but it was slightly above 8.5 but the lines may have changed.)
This is all very rudimentary "use the test to take the test" analysis. I do personally believe LSU will be quite good this year, but I'm sure others could break down the actual football aspect much better than I.
Posted on 8/11/15 at 10:15 pm to maclauer
Im just ready to get this season started and make some more CHC.
Posted on 8/11/15 at 10:36 pm to blades8088
quote:I have little doubt that LSU will reach 9 wins this year. Their defense gonna be as good as I think it is?
Any thoughts on LSU Season Total at 8.5?
Posted on 8/11/15 at 10:45 pm to ReauxlTide222
LSU will go over that 8.5 total.
Easy money.
10 Wins: McNeese, EMU, WKU, Syracuse, MSU, Ole Miss, USCe, Florida, Arkansas and A&M.
Alabama and Auburn are the 2 that will define the season .
I'll give LSU the edge over Auburn in BR and the Alabama game will be a war.
10-2/11-1
Easy money.
10 Wins: McNeese, EMU, WKU, Syracuse, MSU, Ole Miss, USCe, Florida, Arkansas and A&M.
Alabama and Auburn are the 2 that will define the season .
I'll give LSU the edge over Auburn in BR and the Alabama game will be a war.
10-2/11-1
This post was edited on 8/11/15 at 10:46 pm
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